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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I guess everyone is looking past Monday and probably wise to do so but as long as it’s still in the future I guess we still monitor.

ICON and gfs trends aren’t good though. Some frozen still over parts of the area but dwindling.

All we can do is wait and see if the warm front gets here fast enough before the cold runs away. It's still a viable minor event. The runs that count will be over the weekend as the leaf of WAA is better modeled. 

Down the line I'm not too enthused honestly. I see nothing to get excited about over the next 2 weeks. Not super hostile or a true shutout but overall (imo only) things don't look good and my expectations are very low. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All we can do is wait and see if the warm front gets here fast enough before the cold runs away. It's still a viable minor event. The runs that count will be over the weekend as the leaf of WAA is better modeled. 

Down the line I'm not too enthused honestly. I see nothing to get excited about over the next 2 weeks. Not super hostile or a true shutout but overall (imo only) things don't look good and my expectations are very low. 

I'm already past Monday.   Looking ahead...GFS at 162..that sw out west is looking more sharp/amped up vs 6z.  Not sure if that's good or bad attm

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm already past Monday.   Looking ahead...GFS at 162..that sw out west is looking more sharp/amped up vs 6z.  Not sure if that's good or bad attm

The upper level pattern in the high latitudes is shifting the wrong direction on the gfs. If the 12z GFS brings that shortwave through here it's going to be rain. There's nothing to lock in any cold and mid latitude ridging will bring in the warmth. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The upper level pattern in the high latitudes is shifting the wrong direction on the gfs. If the 12z GFS brings that shortwave through here it's going to be rain. There's nothing to lock in any cold and mid latitude ridging will bring in the warmth. 

Yup..was just about to post.  Upper level, especially up North is not going in the right direction.  This run looks like a rainer.  Might even cut

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Yup..was just about to post.  Upper level, especially up North is not going in the right direction.  This run looks like a rainer.  Might even cut

The EPS has been showing a crappy mid latitude pattern leading into Christmas for many days in a row. With the crazy gfs runs it's easy to ignore it but it kept nagging me and I've been expecting some frustration during the period. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The EPS has been showing a crappy mid latitude pattern leading into Christmas for many days in a row. With the crazy gfs runs it's easy to ignore it but it kept nagging me and I've been expecting some frustration during the period. 

its almost easier to be in a shutout pattern than this pattern where we get teased and then shutout

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The EPS has been showing a crappy mid latitude pattern leading into Christmas for many days in a row. With the crazy gfs runs it's easy to ignore it but it kept nagging me and I've been expecting some frustration during the period. 

Position of the TPV in Canada has big implications. It moving west hurts in two ways. 50-50 isn’t as strong and therefore doesn’t hold cold air in, and it prevents ridging out west where we want it.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

New or at least stronger player in the ns looks to have hurt 

The problem is bigger than that. The GFS/GEFS kept insisting that the TPV would drop down and create confluence/cold source while the Euro/EPS has been showing the TPV getting squished like a marshmallow and pushed west while mid latitude ridging spikes in the east. For now, the euro/EPS idea looks favored. And if it's right then we're going to spend at least a week waiting for cold to build again. 

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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Down the line I'm not too enthused honestly. I see nothing to get excited about over the next 2 weeks. Not super hostile or a true shutout but overall (imo only) things don't look good and my expectations are very low. 

Bob,  I was feeling better about the next 2 weeks yesterday and the day before.  My downfall was actually thinking we break from the hostile Pac pattern. 

Well known is the fact the Pac jet has set records for blasting onshore here in the states, and even up into Alaska, ruins the ridge axis out West.   

The Pac jet, which has been a detriment for us in terms of snowfall since last winter, will continue to be be a killer for us until we see a reshuffle out in the far West Pac. If that does not happen real snow events are simply modeled in error.  

Have you also noticed there is nothing to anchor in the cold. Cold air not hanging tough. Even a perfect pattern ends in rain.  

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Just now, frd said:

Bob,  I was feeling better about the next 2 weeks yesterday and the day before.  My downfall was actually thinking we break from the hostile Pac pattern. 

Well known is the fact the Pac jet has set records for blasting onshore here in the states, and even up into Alaska, ruins the ridge axis out West.   

The Pac jet, which has been a detriment for us in terms of snowfall since last winter, will continue to be be a killer for us until we see a reshuffle out in the far West Pac. If that does not happen real snow events are simply modeled in error.  

Have you also noticed there is nothing to anchor in the cold. Cold air not hanging tough. Even a perfect pattern ends in rain.  

Trough axis right off the west coast and steady stream of shortwaves digging will do some damage. The EPS has been dead set on the idea for at least 8 runs in a row. It's not a long term disaster and far from abnormal. Just no fun and will take some time to recover if it happens. 

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

( Monday)

Verbatim Gfs gets frozen in the area around 12z - bit quicker then 6z and keeps n+w areas frozen till around 21z . Definitely a prolonged period of mix depicted.  Surface struggles to go above freezing till afternoon. 

12z guidance shows a quicker onset and better qpf for I70 north. The problem is the WAA precip has been steadily moving north on all guidance over the past few runs. 

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7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

12z guidance shows a quicker onset and better qpf for I70 north. The problem is the WAA precip has been steadily moving north on all guidance over the past few runs. 

 

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Curious to see the 12z Euro since the 6z actually bumped a bit south with the waa.

We could use a 50-75 shift south especially since a lot of these systems tends to send the waa snows north into PA the last minute. Never good being on the southern edge for measurable frozen. Plus it would get more of the forum into some action.

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The biggest difference wrt the 12z GFS dec 22 threat is that it suppressed the upper energy well south of the region creating a disconnect with the cold air source.  If that upper energy traversed closer to our area it would likely have been a similar outcome to 6z.  That wasn't a cold look by any means but just cold enough.  But it doesn't matter as everything is trending towards the idea of retrograding the TPV west which pumps way too much ridging in the central CONUS which will likely end up squashing the system like the euro and ggem show.  

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hmm except the ggem just took a big step towards the GFS...at least in terms of that energy out west ejecting and becoming a storm...its going to be a rain storm probably...but its there not squashed this run.  Well... usually when the major globals are in disagreement some kind of compromise is what happens. In this case the compromise (at least right now as it appears) is heading towards the GFS being more correct about a stronger ejection of energy from the trough out west but the euro/ggem being more correct about the retrogression of the TPV and the ridging across the CONUS.  The end result would be a storm...but a rainstorm.  

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

hmm except the ggem just took a big step towards the GFS...at least in terms of that energy out west ejecting and becoming a storm...its going to be a rain storm probably...but its there not squashed this run.  Well... usually when the major globals are in disagreement some kind of compromise is what happens. In this case the compromise (at least right now as it appears) is heading towards the GFS being more correct about a stronger ejection of energy from the trough out west but the euro/ggem being more correct about the retrogression of the TPV and the ridging across the CONUS.  The end result would be a storm...but a rainstorm.  

I take solace in the fact that the GFS still has a storm on the 22nd and that it strengthens along the east coast . Maybe we can get a rain to snow situation. 

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest Gefs really maintaining the block thru Christmas and goes pretty ape with lower heights in the 50/50 . Real chilly look for the 25th verbatim. 

Agree. GEFS looks pretty solid down the line. Most importantly it pops a -EPO ridge d10-15 so the cold factory can get back to work. Do we believe it though? I'm skeptical AF that we end up here in under 2 weeks:

500h_anom.nh.png

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