December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember. We were in a Nina with no blocking.   Did you really buy that 72 hour 36” overrunning look?  Is there any prescedence for that?  We did get the cold though. It was a frigid week with a couple minor snows. Typical Nina cold pattern. 

That cold snap was very memorable for me.  Hit 0 at my house for the first time.  Ponds frozen over for the only time in my memory.  Heck there was fringe ice forming at the outer banks.

For me, that was worth five 'big" (for NC) snows.

[poolz1]

GGEM brings the wave next week under us like the ICON....but, like the ICON not much frozen with it.

[psuhoffman]

Here comes the real HECS crashing into the west

jokes aside it’s a loaded pattern. 

[Amped]

GGEM going to nail the florida keys at 240.

[cbmclean]

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There’s the cold!!!

 

I am curious why large ares of the west are "missing" shown in white.  Is it because they are at high elevation, and the 850 HP level is at or below the surface?

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am curious why large ares of the west are "missing" shown in white.  Is it because they are at high elevation, and the 850 HP level is at or below the surface?

Yes 

850 mb is usually about 5000 ft so most of the mountain west is above that level. 

[psuhoffman]

So much for the torch 

[Ji]

So much for the torch 

Looking good

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

From day 1 to 10....I dont think you will see a more disastrous run than the 00z euro

The above Euro 850 temp map looks rather warm.  Gonna go out on a limb and say it’s less than ideal for winter weather. 

[showmethesnow]

06Z GFS is still liking our storm for next weekend. Smoking the mountains to our west with up to 3 ft and giving 1 ft+ down into the cities (DC/Balt).

[LurkerBoy]

So, as always, the GFS and the Euro are on different pages when it comes to the Xmas torch. And, just like always, I'm sure the GFS will cave to the Grinch Euro. 

[showmethesnow]

GFS is almost a major weenie run. Day 13 it is setting up for another major storm once again as we see all the energy in the SW ejecting eastward. Only thing that stops it is we see a major pv drop down into the midwest and NE putting major suppression into play. As it is, it  brings severe cold into the east/midwest. The whole CONUS (except for the upper Plains) is clocking in with below, to much below temps by the end of the run.

[Weather Will]

Enjoy for 6 hours!

[showmethesnow]

The only thing stopping this from being a big storm is the deep drop by the pv. Pull that pv northward 250-300 miles northward and we are potentially talking a KU.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Enjoy for 6 hours!

Should be a decent test of the LR op from the "new and improved" GFS. The GFS has been signaling this threat window consistently in one form or another nearly every single run essentially since it has gotten in range. Other guidance has the stj disturbance but nowhere near the consistent appearance of the GFS. In years past many will vouch for this....the old GFS would stick to its guns firmly 8 out of 10 times and we would say "it has been the most consistent" and side with this model...I've certainly been guilty. Then all of a sudden at like Day 6 or 5 it would just drop the threat completely. Sometimes it came back as a minor event, but most of the time ended uneventfully. Should be interesting to see if that issue has been resolved and if the new GFS might have a nose for actually sniffing these threats out. If this were 2 or 3years ago I think if we were presented with the Euro and the GFS irt Dec 22 most of us would hug the GFS but have a feeling which model would be more likely to verify. Both families have undergone extensive upgrades over the past couple of years and each is a shell of its former self with new intricacies and biases. I'm watching with fevered interest and am really curious to see how this LR model war plays out. I'm tempted to think recent history repeats and the meh euro look gets muted/delayed but past history with the old GFS tells me it will cave. I'm stuck in the middle for now as both scenarios have some support. 

[Wonderdog]

Nice to see a moisture laden system heading our way in 8 days or so. Appears to be the blocking with a 1038 hp hanging around for the duration of the 2 day event near NY/Canadian border; a redeveloping storm off the coast which is slow to leave the area. Of course, a storm that is 9 or 10 days off is hard to fathom given the unreliable medium/ long range accuracy but still nice to see on a model run. Keep your fingers crossed. Have really enjoyed reading about this period of time with the learned input from the usual suspects, Bob C. PSU, Showme, C.A.P.E and others. Bring it home!

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice bump south on the Euro for Mondays system.  Weaker system as it approaches.  Hopefully 12z continues the trend . As is would be a decent little snow to mix event for northern areas. 

Are talking about the 00z or 6z?

[frd]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

GFS is almost a major weenie run. Day 13 it is setting up for another major storm once again as we see all the energy in the SW ejecting eastward. Only thing that stops it is we see a major pv drop down into the midwest and NE putting major suppression into play. As it is, it  brings severe cold into the east/midwest. The whole CONUS (except for the upper Plains) is clocking in with below, to much below temps by the end of the run.

If it was not for the wild swings in the EPS along with the antics and cold bias of the GFS I would be a little excited. Still a ways to go, however, a lot better than some Decembers in these parts.  Thanks for the updates ! 

[mappy]

Just a reminder

Quote

1. All mid/long range threads and storm-specific threads will be more heavily moderated. This doesn’t mean don’t post useful questions, this means don’t whine about lack of snow or try and make jokes in these threads.

 

- underpaid "staff"

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z . Weaker and a bit more confluence to the north . Still work to do for south of i70 and hopefully it's not just  a hiccup 

Can you post a map? No access for me

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

The only thing stopping this from being a big storm is the deep drop by the pv. Pull that pv northward 250-300 miles northward and we are potentially talking a KU.

Hasn't that been the trend? Pv expected to be deep and then retreats as the event gets close? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Hasn't that been the trend? Pv expected to be deep and then retreats as the event gets close? 

At least once so far this month.

[WxUSAF]

Ensembles overnight did not move in a good direction for the pre-Xmas storm. Rather than phasing most of the PV into the 50-50 for Monday’s storm, they want back to leaving most of it up over far NW Canada. This keeps the flow more progressive over the conus. Euro and Eps want nothing to do with it. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ensembles overnight did not move in a good direction for the pre-Xmas storm. Rather than phasing most of the PV into the 50-50 for Monday’s storm, they want back to leaving most of it up over far NW Canada. This keeps the flow more progressive over the conus. Euro and Eps want nothing to do with it. 

It’s my fault. Yesterday the EPS and op flipped to the gfs idea of the tpv phasing into the 50/50 and I said it caved. It immediately reverted. 

[frd]

 

BAMWX is stating skill scores right now in days 11 to 15 are at 10 %.  Good luck everyone, deep freeze or torch and yeah your covered. 

Also hearing things along the lines that models are individually biasing the MJO phases. I was not aware of that possibility, or how that plays into the model outcomes. For example GFS phases 8 and 1 , Euro phases 3 , 4 and 5 but muted.

I hope we do get the West Pac changes soon and there is not a significant lag form the weakening IOD state.

 

[Scraff]

45 minutes ago, mappy said:

Just a reminder

 

- underpaid "staff"

Please take that to banter. We are trying to be serious in here. 

So anyway, how about that GFS!? I’m not falling for it though. Not until the King is on board. I’m sure we all know this right?

[CAPE]

Here is a peak at the advertised "torch" on the EPS. Verbatim, no it's not a look that supports snow, but I mean mid forties around Xmas is fine with me.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Please take that to banter. We are trying to be serious in here. 

So anyway, how about that GFS!? I’m not falling for it though. Not until the King is on board. I’m sure we all know this right?

 

I know you know this.  Run over run consistency does not correlate to eventual high model verification in the extended. ( At least if you desire snow in our area )  I have seem the old and new GFS have a SECS modeled for many runs in a row, I believe once it was 3 days in a row or 12 runs, maybe even longer than that , and as you guessed,  finally the GFS did cave to the no snow Euro solution.  No high praises for the Euro intended,  because that model has landed flat on its face as well from time to time. 

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

I think we can only focus on a short lead system (as Bob has hinted at) for anything. Patterns do not make snow. And Models are struggling mighty! I like the cooler air look and what we have had. Keep the cold, continue to build the NA snow pack, and  eventually we luck out! But the model watching and pattern switch hopes are already making me tired this year! The Monday thing is now in the shorter range - we will get that in focus.. anything beyond is a major gamble, and, I would bet on a loss! 

For real, looking forward to the 12z for Monday focus. I guess we all know this, but snow and patterns on the long range keep us coming back for our "fix"! LOL!

 

[clskinsfan]

6Z GFS is a weenie run for the Shenandoah Valley and WV. The Ski resorts are loving what they are seeing for pretty much the entire run.