Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I think there was a good h5 last January right after New Years that was a rainer due to the MJO warm phases Grand Tour that was then in process. I remember Bob sickened by it. Yep... there are others but lets not go down memory lane from hell. Thing is, we don't get many big beautiful coastals. We can go years in between. And to have all the pieces in place only to get rain is such a waste. I'm not getting any younger and there's only so many more chances left in my life. Only 2 storms have gotten me really bad thoughp. Boxing day 2010 and March 2013. The march bust was on the heels of a horrible multi year stretch. That was high level torture of epic proportions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Looks like 00z GFS is a tad south at 72 compared to 18z at 78... hope that continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Def south push on tonights 00z GFS... doesn't seem to do much for us... but you can see the trend -- this is for Monday into Monday night before the rain that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 GFS stronger with the block at 0z. Strengthening HP in SE Can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: GFS stronger with the block at 0z. Strengthening HP in SE Can... I like what I am seeing at 186... nice 1040+ HP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 More confluence to the north on gfs for the Dec 22 threat. High stronger and better positioned. I suspect a colder solution then 12/18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Looks just like 18z last night's HH run with the z500 vort. Edit: There's a little too much confluence at 210. the vort over eastern canada slides south and would suppress the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 198 looks nice to me... 1010mb SLP in SW AL... 1044mb HP sitting nicely in Quebec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 This will do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Classic look.... That piece of the TPV that gets left in Can migrates NW just enough to allow heights to rise over HB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, yoda said: 198 looks nice to me... 1010mb SLP in SW AL... 1044mb HP sitting nicely in Quebec... Just op run but I like where it’s going I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 00z GFS at 210 -- 1007mb SLP in south central TN while 1043 HP is sitting in Quebec right where we want it to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 There’s the cold!!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Transfer ongoing at 216... new SLP south of ILM developing 222 transfer almost done... 1000mb SLP right near ILM 228 transfer looks done... 999mb still in same place lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 That’s what I want to see...when the rain snow line starts out down in NC it gives us a lot more wiggle room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Too much blocking. Happens all the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Not a flake but I'll take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 GFS - Right where we want it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Lol a lobe of the 50/50 vortex rotates down on top of it and suppresses it south of us. Slides east southeast from TN. That’s what happened last December. And I remember when guidance first started picking up on it at range we said “no way will that be right from this range”. I am not predicting anything like that again. Just laughing at the depiction. This was a good run imo. I’m happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s what I want to see...when the rain snow line starts out down in NC it gives us a lot more wiggle room. the gfs is insistent on this storm...is any other model seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Too much blocking. Happens all the time Do they really need an extra push? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Lol a lobe of the 50/50 vortex rotates down on top of it and suppresses it south of us. Slides east southeast from TN. That’s what happened last December. And I remember when guidance first started picking up on it at range we said “no way will that be right from this range”. I am not predicting anything like that again. Just laughing at the depiction. This was a good run imo. I’m happy. it would hurt alot more to have this kind of storm happened right before christmas. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the gfs is insistent on this storm...is any other model seeing this? its been showing up on the GEFS and I believe some members of the EPS as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the gfs is insistent on this storm...is any other model seeing this? The euro is trending that way but still squashing the wave out west. Maybe it’s real, maybe not. I’m just enjoying the ride. The eps actually caved to the gfs progression though mostly. Historically a 60/40 compromise leaving 60 euro is good. This time it was 60/40 GFS it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Need a bit more northern stream. Usually the troff is riding the 546dm or 552dm contour in the plains when we get a hecs. This one is on the 558 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: it would hurt alot more to have this kind of storm happened right before christmas. wow Oh yea, I’m laughing now but if it plays out that way again I’ll be hurting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: The euro is trending that way but still squashing the wave out west. Maybe it’s real, maybe not. I’m just enjoying the ride. The eps actually caved to the gfs progression though mostly. Historically a 60/40 compromise leaving 60 euro is good. This time it was 60/40 GFS it seems. i remember 2 years ago--between christmas and new years...all the models had this huge cold overrunning big southern stream event...we got within 144 hours...and then poof..it all disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: i remember 2 years ago--between christmas and new years...all the models had this huge cold overrunning big southern stream event...we got within 144 hours...and then poof..it all disappeared I remember that too. Posting the gfs sim satellite panels. Lol. That winter sucked in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i remember 2 years ago--between christmas and new years...all the models had this huge cold overrunning big southern stream event...we got within 144 hours...and then poof..it all disappeared I remember. We were in a Nina with no blocking. Did you really buy that 72 hour 36” overrunning look? Is there any prescedence for that? We did get the cold though. It was a frigid week with a couple minor snows. Typical Nina cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I remember that too. Posting the gfs sim satellite panels. Lol. That winter sucked in general. I regret all of the time I stayed up for that. I remember DT was bullish on it until the Euro (?) finally dropped it. After Jan 4th we knew what type of winter we were in for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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