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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

we have been in a great pattern for 6 weeks and we have a dusting to show for it.  We all need to move

You need to brush up on your pattern skills. We've been in a strong +AO regime since the end of Nov. The dusting was lucky and we should be thankful for it. 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You need to brush up on your pattern skills. We've been in a strong +AO regime since the end of Nov. The dusting was lucky and we should be thankful for it. 

Yeah this pattern, and I’m looking at mid latitudes, hasn’t been all that conducive imo.

That why I like the Monday threat. Has a better look to it in my eyes.

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A follow up on my post from Aug. 10 from the "Is next winter looking like a disaster" thread:

image.thumb.png.140f4165872e809195447cf111caeb45.png

PSU alluded to my post about how east based Nina's are better than west. While I do see that the east based cooling has somewhat expanded westward, I see a Modoki signature in the western central Pacific. ENSO progression to me still doesn't look less favorable than it did in August. Wouldn't mind slightly more warming in the CPAC tho. I see above average water temps in the NAtl near Greenland as well, which indicates a -NAO. Pacific somewhat resembles a victoria mode PDO. 

One thing I wish I did was save the ENSO anomaly map on that day and put it in one of my file folders for future reference.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro caved to gfs on the tpv sliding east vs retrograde west next week. But this run it dropped the whole thing into New England and squashed any storm threat. Lol 

With the way the EPS has been changing tunes at longer leads,  I would think it is fair to assume additional changes are coming up. HM alluded to the period now, as well as others, as having an extremely high degree of difficulty to forecast.

I know some will state when a strong block is established forecasting verification might go up, but based on all the factors at play I don't think we are there yet.  

Many things are still in flux, both in the Pac and the Atlantic side,  and even the HL.   Not boring in the least. 

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Does anyone have the latest QBO data? I'm not so sure where to look. Any websites? @C.A.P.E. So far the QBO has been one of the factors has or is going to work in our favor moving forward. Now that it's December and the QBO is in a favorable spot and has granted CAPE's wishes so far, hopefully it stays between -5 and +5 throughout the winter.

image.thumb.png.092fb9125adf814360ab586d54bd4e5d.png

 

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6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Does anyone have the latest QBO data? I'm not so sure where to look. Any websites? @C.A.P.E. So far the QBO has been one of the factors has or is going to work in our favor moving forward. Now that it's December and the QBO is in a favorable spot and has granted CAPE's wishes so far, hopefully it stays between -5 and +5 throughout the winter.

image.thumb.png.092fb9125adf814360ab586d54bd4e5d.png

 

time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2019.png

 

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

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Models don’t get the oddities that have happened since middle of November when they began showing warm ups right around the corner. The open waters in Alaska area and the stout highs from Mongolia have perplexed the formulations. So, as I have been stating since mid November and in September long range outlook, December will be colder than average.

My only concern is that since it started a bit earlier it may end earlier.

 

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I like the move the Icon made. Gets front running precip pretty far out in advance and also moved the entire system a good bit south and east. Not there yet for us but alot closer 

That seems to be the pattern today. Euro and gfs both did that. That might be the path to a light event. Seems the possibility to have the primary run under us is basically gone.

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We average about 11.8 here for those months. We average about 35” of snow (generally). 
 

I can promise you that most of our below avg snow years are below avg precip years.

I still think you’d find the ratio of snow to precip to not be very good at least closer to the fall line. Our best years have plentiful cold bc we can luck into precip here. We do that part pretty well for the most part. Cold air...not as well. So far this season I feel like we’re on the right side of chilly, but need this type of pattern in Jan/feb as well.

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Wonder if the continuous, and annoying, fast Pac jet screws up the period near 12/19 to 12/22. 

Bluewave made a good point about the Pac jet effecting the ridge axis out West. Might be difficult to achieve the proper ridge axis unless things change up a bit. Not sure the block/ - NAO alone is enough. 

The ramped up Pac jet was one big concern last winter. 

 from bluewave:

<<<<

The EPS has a low coming through the Great Lakes with cold high pressure behind it. Ridge axis would be too far east for a major storm. May be tough to back that ridge far enough west with such a fast Pacific Jet.

088CB6EC-A1FE-4C80-A74C-0027F0B431F7.gif.442195b87a3d8c84d7645219dfacc22c.gif

CF90E43F-32DC-4AEA-8D3C-B67904BF4194.gif.32281a6ea04bf833c39a4739907dcc5b.gif

 

 >>>>>>

 

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GEFS looks very nice for the December 22 threat. Unfortunately I won't be posting maps anymore because the information I get is from 33andrain. Can't be ripping maps from that forum man! 

Here is the reminder, in case anyone hasn't read it yet:

image.thumb.png.95258e7f920d3ad7a6e57a5cd0159963.png

By the way, I DO admit to taking screenshotting content from 33andrain in the past. I am 100% guilty of doing this.

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9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

GEFS looks very nice for the December 22 threat. Unfortunately I won't be posting maps anymore because the information I get is from 33andrain. Can't be ripping maps from that forum man! 

Here is the reminder, in case anyone hasn't read it yet:

image.thumb.png.95258e7f920d3ad7a6e57a5cd0159963.png

By the way, I DO admit to taking screenshotting content from 33andrain in the past. I am 100% guilty of doing this.

:lol:

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23 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

GEFS looks very nice for the December 22 threat. Unfortunately I won't be posting maps anymore because the information I get is from 33andrain. Can't be ripping maps from that forum man! 

Here is the reminder, in case anyone hasn't read it yet:

image.thumb.png.95258e7f920d3ad7a6e57a5cd0159963.png

By the way, I DO admit to taking screenshotting content from 33andrain in the past. I am 100% guilty of doing this.

:lol:  Almost as bad as the one started by Earthlight aka John Homenuk.  Dude literally snuck around here like a weasel poaching members off through PMs.  The kicker? He was a moderator here while doing it. 

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

:lol:  Almost as bad as the one started by Earthlight aka John Homenuk.  Dude literally snuck around here like a weasel poaching members off through PMs.  The kicker? He was a moderator here while doing it. 

Dude, we've been saying this for years... weather is suurius biznizzle

Obligatory on topic post to set a good example:

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_38.png

Medium range trend has been weaken confluence and move everything north. This one is ours. Even if rain like unhappy hour showed

 

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35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, we've been saying this for years... weather is suurius biznizzle

Obligatory on topic post to set a good example:

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_38.png

Medium range trend has been weaken confluence and move everything north. This one is ours. Even if rain like unhappy hour showed

 

It could happen...we’ve seen perfect h5 presentations lead to rain before. January 2016 we had one before the blizzard. But the antecedent airmass was really bad then. This will have some cold in front. I am skeptical of the warm solution with that track. I can remember a few times mid winter when from range guidance saw a warmer profile with a southern track system then was reality. We will see. 

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11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That whole evolution of the storm on the 22nd on the gfs seems off the wall. 
 

Im feeling like we are gonna be pretty happy after the next 10-11 days

coming around are we....

Nice to see the Christmas warmup being muted to meh status.  I think we all can take that.  Just no skorts weather is all i ask anyway.

Will be interesting to see the evolution of the NAO and EPAC in the coming days.

 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It could happen...we’ve seen perfect h5 presentations lead to rain before. January 2016 we had one before the blizzard. But the antecedent airmass was really bad then. This will have some cold in front. I am skeptical of the warm solution with that track. I can remember a few times mid winter when from range guidance saw a warmer profile with a southern track system then was reality. We will see. 

Agreed only so much the storm can do with the banana highs anchoring in place to dictate the track. If it presented exactly as shown no way it cuts. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It could happen...we’ve seen perfect h5 presentations lead to rain before. January 2016 we had one before the blizzard. But the antecedent airmass was really bad then. This will have some cold in front. I am skeptical of the warm solution with that track. I can remember a few times mid winter when from range guidance saw a warmer profile with a southern track system then was reality. We will see. 

I'm surprised how few hits there are on the 18z gefs considering the mean track. Too many are rain for my liking. I don't mind rain in winter because i get lots of it... but damn do I hate a good setup with blocking, good track, etc and get rain anyways...

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It could happen...we’ve seen perfect h5 presentations lead to rain before. January 2016 we had one before the blizzard. But the antecedent airmass was really bad then. This will have some cold in front. I am skeptical of the warm solution with that track. I can remember a few times mid winter when from range guidance saw a warmer profile with a southern track system then was reality. We will see. 

I think there was a good h5 last January right after New Years that was a rainer due to the MJO warm phases Grand Tour that was then in process.  I remember Bob sickened by it.

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