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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Any staying power with that block?  Maps not out yet on TT.  Just curious 

Yea, AO/NAO looks good through the end of the GEFS. Pac is messy d10+ but overall there is no sign of a disaster. 

500h_anom.nh.png

 

Seeing the EPO ridge building is really nice. Would keep any pac flood situation short lived. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, AO/NAO looks good through the end of the GEFS. Pac is messy d10+ but overall there is no sign of a disaster. 

500h_anom.nh.png

 

Seeing the EPO ridge building is really nice. Would keep any pac flood situation short lived. 

Yea the gefs just accelerated the process of getting towards a good look. Cuts the pac trough under the ridge quicker. Caved to the euro there too. 

If the gefs is close to right here suppresses is a way bigger threat than a rainstorm around the 22nd. 

C7BEDFD7-C3F6-45BC-9349-DE533D570888.thumb.png.7f955eea43aec4a0fd23019a54d2dcb6.png

if we just get that pna ridge about 100 miles west that’s a classic HECS look actually. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just to show how futile it is to look at an op that far out in range (even tho I am for kicks and giggles only), you gotta love the 6 closed LP contours off the coast. Take your pick. Again, resolution gets cut at this range but just funny to see. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40.png

Can't make up its mind 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, AO/NAO looks good through the end of the GEFS. Pac is messy d10+ but overall there is no sign of a disaster. 

500h_anom.nh.png

 

Seeing the EPO ridge building is really nice. Would keep any pac flood situation short lived. 

 

Prior to this time frame with have this event unfolding below, note the vortex taking on a  peanut shape  (mentioned by Hugo a few days ago ) , not really a true split , as the depiction is at 50 mb, however ,as noted by HM,  very important and not so usual. 

 

 

Cool things are a happening ........

 

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IF the GEFS and EPS are correct in the 12-15 it sure looks like things are primed.  Jet is getting ready to cut under the HL blocking and connect to the ATL trough.  Maybe a very classic ATL look in toward the end of the month?  All speculation of course based on LR ens...so there's that.  Not that things are boring right now but man if we can get a progression like that this place will be rocking.

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One thing is showing, the high latitudes are not averse to blocking this year. This will be the second nice NAO block and we’ve had 2 nice EPO blocks already this cold season. 

Very nino-like this year. The entire seasonal progression since early Nov reminds me of a mod nino. If the current blocking episode is a pre-cursor to the rest of winter then we're going to get a couple decent events by default.

It's entirely possible that the current blocking episode on tap has longer term implications. Very common for a strong -AO to last 30-60 days. We haven't had one hit in December for 10 years so it seems like it's impossible but the atmosphere never gives a crap about the past. 

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Am I looking at the wrong model? Euro seems like exactly where we want it if we want some front end frozen. A little faster and heavier with the initial precip and we will be good for our first real event. 
 

Y’all didn’t think we were getting an all snow event did you? EURO is never right when it shows snow lol.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Am I looking at the wrong model? Euro seems like exactly where we want it if we want some front end frozen. A little faster and heavier with the initial precip and we will be good for our first real event. 
 

Y’all didn’t think we were getting an all snow event did you? EURO is never right when it shows snow lol.

That's all this event is. Scoring on the leading warm front before rain. Euro/GFS/CMC/ICON all close enough to keep it interesting but the potential isn't very exciting. I'm not nearly as interested in it as I was 2-3 days ago. 

2 things that have consistently trended poorly as leads shorten are depth of cold and confluence. When this event first showed up there was a strong CAD signal in front of it. That's basically completely evaporated. Track of shortwaves has consistently shifted north during the same time frame as well. 

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

OMG,  this is crazy.  Incredible 6 hour temp drops just for the fun of it !  

My hood goes from 46  to 12 in 6 hours, a 34 degree drop, LOL Some locals experience even greater drops .

CLICK FOR ANIMATION 

 

963161e9-5161-4ea4-b020-c7d636e3fbe6.gif

 

We flash freeze into a tray of ice cubes if that verifies 

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2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

You and I have always said bring on the wet first and then let's see what happens. I've been happy to see the moisture train start back up a few weeks back after the dry stretch.

if you're ok with 90% of that being rain like last year than i think that's an ok rationale to take, but i'd rather have cold/dry sprinkled with the occasional snowstorm so that things aren't getting washed away within several days.  it feels more like winter that way.  we average close to 15" of precip from nov thru march.  if even half of that was snow we'd be a ski town.  the problem is almost always due to cold air resulting from lower elevation/atlantic air and just generally not being at a high enough latitude.  i always tell people to expect 2-3 decent storms per year and that's about it, generally speaking.  we snow here, but like others have said we really need things to break right.

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7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

if you're ok with 90% of that being rain like last year than i think that's an ok rationale to take, but i'd rather have cold/dry sprinkled with the occasional snowstorm so that things aren't getting washed away within several days.  it feels more like winter that way.  we average close to 15" of precip from nov thru march.  if even half of that was snow we'd be a ski town.  the problem is almost always due to cold air resulting from lower elevation/atlantic air and just generally not being at a high enough latitude.  i always tell people to expect 2-3 decent storms per year and that's about it, generally speaking.  we snow here, but like others have said we really need things to break right.

We average about 11.8 here for those months. We average about 35” of snow (generally). 
 

I can promise you that most of our below avg snow years are below avg precip years.

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23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I can promise you that most of our below avg snow years are below avg precip years.

I don't have the time to research this right now, but I would be curious if that's true. I do know 97/98 would probably be one example where it is not true, but I wonder how strong the correlation has been over the years.

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