poolz1 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Right in the slot (insert Micheal Scott joke) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Euro at day 10 More likely for it to be in the 80s on Christmas than for the GFS to nail a 10 day HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Okay, I just had to. 2 1 1 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Okay, I just had to. Not good enough for @Ji...you trying to convince him to jump early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 Right or wrong, this panel is right out of the 09-10 playbook. Especially the first Feb storm... 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Okay, I just had to. Ok, I guess I’ll side with PSU and trade in next week’s 2-4”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 Seriously... just a little similar right? 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 YA - Happy hour for the weekend of the 21st! All fantasy! I am dreaming of a White Christmas! That is classic.. way too good.. and every other powder dream has vanished. If we were just a day away! OH WELL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 GEFS has a nice blocking signal. Would crush weenie dreams if this didn't verify. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 31 minutes ago, Ji said: 37 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It’s the only one that far NW. either it’s a pioneer or pure carp I mean it gave us 5 inches at 00z last night. Its constantly overdoing something. Fv3 was stubborn last year but always need up being wrong. The model is broken Did you see what the euro gave us 3 days prior to the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Okay, I just had to. Take it out to the end of the run (the 27th) and its 2 ft+ from DC to Dover, plus SE VA into central NC get buried. Pretty epic run that will remain a complete fantasy lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 59 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Slight difference of opinion. Beware the FV3 cold bias in the long range. I would bet its wrong, it also has an over amplification bias and that is more in play here, but it's the solution it comes up with day 5 that leads to that day 10 48 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Ok, I guess I’ll side with PSU and trade in next week’s 2-4”. The whole sacrifice thing is just a mental exorcise since we don't get to choose...but I would root for the GFS progression. I doubt it is correct but if storm 1 phases with the TPV and pulls it under the block into a 50/50 position...that really does set up a classic HECS look. You can see the GFS scenario below The GFS phases the system into the TPV in Canada. This will amplify it, consolidate it, and pinwheel it east into a 50/50 location. This also prevents the TPV from pulling west and feeling into the trough along the Pac. This sets up the HECS look with a massive 50/50 under the blocking and very little of the TPV left in Canada to interfere and or feed into the western trough. That allows the energy out west to cut underneath. In the next post I will show what the euro does instead... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Instead of phasing the euro suppresses the system and the TPV elongates and splits but the major piece retrogrades west and feeds into the PAC trough. This pumps a full latitude ridge across north America and with no monster 50/50 its game over. We would eventually recover as that ridge lifts and the pacific energy cuts under but that would take a week or so. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Unfortunately everything other than the gfs agrees with the euro progression so this is probably a moot point and we should root for whatever we can get from storm 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately everything other than the gfs agrees with the euro progression so this is probably a moot point and we should root for whatever we can get from storm 1. Whatever is gonna happen will happen regardless, as we all know. That was a nice discussion/illustration btw, but would have been better using the Ens runs rather than the op runs, which can and do change pretty dramatically from run to run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Whatever is gonna happen will happen regardless, as we all know. That was a nice discussion/illustration btw, but would have been better using the Ens runs rather than the op runs, which can and do change pretty dramatically from run to run.. I thought of that but since both ensembles generally agree with the respective op runs...and the features I was trying to show are clearer on the ops (not washed out) I went with that. I wasn’t trying to endorse an op run at range as likely. I suppose some will interpret it that way but oh well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 Being honest with what I'm seeing... Ens are starting to converge on AN temps leading into and on Christmas. Still a lot of time for changes and not spiking any footballs but the pattern progression makes sense and imho it's becoming more likely as the days go by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Right or wrong, this panel is right out of the 09-10 playbook. Especially the first Feb storm... That was exactly my thought when I saw it, too. I could go for that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Being honest with what I'm seeing... Ens are starting to converge on AN temps leading into and on Christmas. Still a lot of time for changes and not spiking any footballs but the pattern progression makes sense and imho it's becoming more likely as the days go by. Almost to be expected. We will win the war if we lose the battle. Doesn’t look like an inferno based on what I saw on 18z GEFS. Not yet anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 We are going to get warm weeks every winter. Let’s keep avoiding warm months and we will get some snow. Most long range forecasts that i have read were calling for a colder second half. Keep the stormy pattern and snow will come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Oh and the cold the last month or so is paying dividends with ocean water temperatures. OC MD sea temp is 47, which is below the mean of 50 for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Not sure the outcomes are really set in stone for the 12/21 threat period. Blocking will continue to evolve further and possibly even more significantly. I realize the Euro has better verification scores but with a period of high model volatility I would be open to any outcome. There is also some downward coupling from the weakened pv, coming up in the next 10 days. Afterwards, it is appearing the vortex gains strength per Amy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Being honest with what I'm seeing... Ens are starting to converge on AN temps leading into and on Christmas. Still a lot of time for changes and not spiking any footballs but the pattern progression makes sense and imho it's becoming more likely as the days go by. It may be unscientific, but if the Pac puke is inevitable, I kind of feel like I just want it to go ahead and get it over with so we can move on. The bad thing is, there is no guarantee that we move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 CPC NAO outlooks range from "hmm" to "ugh" with a mean of "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 29 minutes ago, frd said: Not sure the outcomes are really set in stone for the 12/21 threat period. Blocking will continue to evolve further and possibly even more significantly. I realize the Euro has better verification scores but with a period of high model volatility I would be open to any outcome. There is also some downward coupling from the weakened pv, coming up in the next 10 days. Afterwards, it is appearing the vortex gains strength per Amy. Massiello nailed the blocking episode mid month when he was all alone on that. Impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, cbmclean said: CPC NAO outlooks range from "hmm" to "ugh" with a mean of "meh". The December -NAO has become a Unicorn this decade. There seems to be some support moving later in the winter for a decent -NAO period, but so hard to predict even at short leads, seasonal NAO calls even more challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Massiello nailed the blocking episode mid month when he was all alone on that. Impressive. Sorry for the ignorance on my part, but the blocking that you are referring to, I am not seeing anything showing up on the NAO forecast, and I was under the impression that it was the teleconnection most reflective of the kind of blocking we (eastern CONUS) like to see. I did note a predicted nice little negative event on the AO, but I thoght taht teh AO reflected the strength (or lack thereof) of the polar jet stream. Is it also conencted to "blocking"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 22 minutes ago, cbmclean said: CPC NAO outlooks range from "hmm" to "ugh" with a mean of "meh". The h5 look matters a lot more than that chart. Guidance all agrees with a west based block. Unfortunately most guidance ruins it with a hostile pac. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Massiello nailed the blocking episode mid month when he was all alone on that. Impressive. Yes, he gets these " not in consensus calls" right a decent amount of the time . I recall many of these the last 10 years. I wish he would put up when our KU window is. LOL Also his mid December shoveling reference made about a month ago ( although not a forecast ) fits as well , with this past week's snows in areas to our East and NE. , and also what might be coming up next week too. Not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: The h5 look matters a lot more than that chart. Guidance all agrees with a west based block. Unfortunately most guidance ruins it with a hostile pac. Well that is what confuses me. The chart mentioned that it is defined at 500 hp as opposed to the older 1000 HP.hp. So are you just saying that the index, at whatever level it is taken, only gives a very rudimentary approximation of the state of blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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