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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That is one of the most beautiful -NAO sigs I've seen in a long time. Sucks that it's 8 days away, but you never know....

Move that GOA low a few hundred miles westward and it would be time to pitch an 8-person tent

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Move that GOA low a few hundred miles westward and it would be time to pitch an 8-person tent

No kidding. Still a workable pattern for sure. Would like to see that ridge axis over Boise instead of Dodge City with that look. At this point, just seeing some indication of that is a net positive. Heck, it's inside 9 days. We usually don't see this kind of look until Day 12-15 last 3 years.  

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  We were joking earlier but we might have to start worrying about suppression, lol

I like the euro progression a lot. Temp problems verbatim but that type of progression is perfect for a moderate event in these parts. I'm not worried about the mix stuff as shown. 12z has been good today. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I like the euro progression a lot. Temp problems verbatim but that type of progression is perfect for a moderate event in these parts. I'm not worried about the mix stuff as shown. 12z has been good today. 

Nice!

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I like the euro progression a lot. Temp problems verbatim but that type of progression is perfect for a moderate event in these parts. I'm not worried about the mix stuff as shown. 12z has been good today. 

I'd pay good money (which for me is about $25 gift card to Walmart) to have that Low up north about 500 miles wester.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I don't think that's the most likely outcome with the track as shown. It's a very good look for these parts. I like it. 

It's a very similar progression to the UKIE.  The ukie was just wetter when we are cold enough.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I'd pay good money (which for me is about $25 gift card to Walmart) to have that Low up north about 500 miles wester.  

Gotta love the track tho. Nearly perfect. Just a touch more blocking and we're getting our first warning level event of the year. Weenie handbook says the front end thump will be juicier and quicker than shown. Best of all... only 5 days away...

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32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gotta love the track tho. Nearly perfect. Just a touch more blocking and we're getting our first warning level event of the year. Weenie handbook says the front end thump will be juicier and quicker than shown. Best of all... only 5 days away...

I agree our chances of getting some snow from this have gone up today.  But I am not sure this progression is really what I want.  I am probably on my own here...but the only way to get snow from this day 5 wave is to get a weak sheared out mess that gets suppressed.  But if that happens...and all the guidance agrees on the great NAO blocking next week...but with that initial wave sheared and a non factor the TPV splits and a peice of it rotates east and out and another piece feeds into the western trough and with that setup we will torch just in time for xmas.  It won't be prolonged, the jet would cut under and by New Years we would be back in the game...but no mistake we would be torching xmas week.  Now with the GFS idea of a more phased system, the TPV remains more intact and pinwheels around to our north before exiting east whole...creating a monster 50/50 low to suppress the pacific flood plus not as much of it breaks off to feed into the pacific trough... the end result is a colder look leading into xmas and a storm threat with the next wave, and possible a bigger storm threat than this one.  Now...I know sacrificing some snow for a lower probability of snow later is usually a big no no...but given the implications for the holiday...who would rather sacrifice the chance of a 2-4 type event now knowing it comes along with the probability of a 60 degree xmas for a chance at a bigger storm and a cold look around xmas? 

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@psuhoffman

I don't disagree with your take on the bigger picture through the second half of the month. Unfortunately, I'm expecting some version of a pac flood in the conus during the week before Christmas. The EPS has been dead set on the idea for many runs in a row. GEFS shows how it can be avoided but I'm not thinking we'll be so lucky. For that reason alone, I'm rooting for snow of any way, shape, or form before a shutout period. 

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