Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Is it just me or does the GFS have a good look for follow up (at 96)? Liking trough axis for next vort coming out of SW. I guess we'll know shortly. It's the same shortwave that cuts west on 6z but it's further south and cold is better entrenched in the east. My early guess is the GFS is coming south from 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: ICON didn't phase at all. If we want a good track and all snow then we can't afford to have stream interaction. A weaker/unphased/sheared solution will cut down on QPF so there's a tradeoff. IMHO- the easiest way to win here is to have a middle of the road solution like Ralph mentioned and have the WAA piece hit us flush. If everything shifts to unphased/weak then we run the risk of little to no precip at all as everything slides underneath. Always a dance with this stuff. Understood. So we would like something like the 00z Euro run from last night but with a little less stream interaction for example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's the same shortwave that cuts west on 6z but it's further south and cold is better entrenched in the east. My early guess is the GFS is coming south from 6z Thats what my extrapolating mind was thinking. Spacing looks better and HP doing its dirty work in the east. Heres to hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Thats what my extrapolating mind was thinking. Spacing looks better and HP doing its dirty work in the east. Heres to hoping What does the NAO domain look like? Are we getting that Davis Straits blocking trend there after hour 96 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Understood. So we would like something like the 00z Euro run from last night but with a little less stream interaction for example? Yea, there are a lot of options. No phase would be the coldest with best chance of all snow but juice could be lacking. My total WAG is the biggest snow totals would come from a mixed event with SLP tracking over or to the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Just now, frd said: What does the NAO domain look like? Are we getting that Davis Straits blocking trend there after hour 96 ? was just parsing over 500/700 and less ridging (by a little), but a baby step imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 Nice subtle shifts on the gfs with confluence, lower heights, more effective 50/50. Not going to be enough this run of course but certainly a step in the right direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 For reference, the 6z euro control run is weaker/further south with the progression. This is as far north as it comes before jumping the coast: Here's the WAA snow totals: Will be interesting to see if 12z goes along with a weaker/further south/less phased progression. The trend is intact for now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 In addition to a shift south, a clearer trend on the gfs over the last 24hrs is for a faster shortwave. I think that’s a good trend for us as it keeps it closer to this weekends storm and therefore closer to the cold air that storm brings in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Still far too much interaction between the PV and the mid-latitude trough for our needs. But as those who followed the GFS/GEFS on the storm that just passed through this was the time frame (mid-range) that the GFS/GEFS was overplaying the drop of the PV towards the US/Canadian border. If we see that same bias play out here we probably end up with a pretty good look as we see a further north solution with the PV thus less interaction.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Still seeing the day 10 storm popping up. Different look at 500s then the 06Z run and more in line with the 00Z. Would prefer this look over the 06Z as I think it offers better odds on scoring more then just a conversational snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 @Bob Chill FWIW 6z EPS was a big shift south at 144 from 0z 0z 6z like this look... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 @psuhoffman Yea, I thought the 6z EPS run looked really good. CMC is coming in flatter/colder/less phased as well. When do we start talking about a miss south? lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 @psuhoffman After looking over op, gut says you may like 12z a bit more. This does have potential as wave spacing may be close enough from weekend deal that we have better flow out ahead and get some WAA loving from this deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman Yea, I thought the 6z EPS run looked really good. CMC is coming in flatter/colder/less phased as well. When do we start talking about a miss south? lol Hearing the UkMET went South as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman Yea, I thought the 6z EPS run looked really good. CMC is coming in flatter/colder/less phased as well. When do we start talking about a miss south? lol Dec 9/10 last year right? But this time around hopefully we're not dealing with a brick wall of confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 @psuhoffmanLiked the shift south on the 06z EPS as well. Except for occasional glances though I haven't really been following the off runs of the Euro. Any idea how well it is verifying? Any degradation over the 00z, 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Hearing the UkMET went South as well. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 Just now, frd said: Hearing the UkMET went South as well. As is right now... what the 6z EPS and 12z ICON/CMC are showing is a bread and butter MA moderate event setup. Overrunning streaming up from the TN valley into cold air is probably the most common way our area gets a 2-4/3-6 deal. Some mix/flip and others skid across to our south and quietly out to sea. For d5 leads I really like what I see. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, MountainGeek said: Dec 9/10 last year right? But this time around hopefully we're not dealing with a brick wall of confluence. IF TPV drops in you may need said brick wall.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: @psuhoffmanLiked the shift south on the 06z EPS as well. Except for occasional glances though I haven't really been following the off runs of the Euro. Any idea how well it is verifying? Any degradation over the 00z, 12z runs? I’ve not seen but I doubt it’s significantly degraded. Maybe @dtk can clear that up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Dec 9/10 last year right? But this time around hopefully we're not dealing with a brick wall of confluence. Just prioritize your worries. Right now the entire thing can easily track to our west with limited frozen and lots of liquid. Let's get rid of that worry before worrying about too much of a good thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: As is right now... what the 6z EPS and 12z ICON/CMC are showing is a bread and butter MA moderate event setup. Overrunning streaming up from the TN valley into cold air is probably the most common way our area gets a 2-4/3-6 deal. Some mix/flip and others skid across to our south and quietly out to sea. For d5 leads I really like what I see. CMC made a good shift south vs 0z as well. Still not the flush hit we want, but a good signal. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’ve not seen but I doubt it’s significantly degraded. Maybe @dtk can clear that up. You’ll like the GGEM today. You’re snowblowing while DC and south is raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z GEFS shifted in the right direction with a faster plains shortwave and better confluence/cold in our region. Still clearly favors a west track but a step in the right direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Hell of a block 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 GEFS made a big move towards a pretty sick west based -NAO in the medium range. If that's real then we can discuss a KU as it relaxes... lol 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS made a big move towards a pretty sick west based -NAO in the medium range. If that's real then we can discuss a KU as it relaxes... lol Glad to see you and psu are on top of this . Damn that is sweet !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Maybe half of this falls as snow according to the model. I dont really know what the difference between the euro and euro hi res is.. but the look the same during that time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 UKMET looks to be an all snow event based on my limited maps. Here are the best panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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