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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Is it just me or does the GFS have a good look for follow up (at 96)?  Liking trough axis for next vort coming out of SW.  I guess we'll know shortly.

It's the same shortwave that cuts west on 6z but it's further south and cold is better entrenched in the east. My early guess is the GFS is coming south from 6z

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

ICON didn't phase at all. If we want a good track and all snow then we can't afford to have stream interaction. A weaker/unphased/sheared solution will cut down on QPF so there's a tradeoff. 

IMHO- the easiest way to win here is to have a middle of the road solution like Ralph mentioned and have the WAA piece hit us flush. If everything shifts to unphased/weak then we run the risk of little to no precip at all as everything slides underneath. Always a dance with this stuff. 

Understood.  So we would like something like the 00z Euro run from last night but with a little less stream interaction for example?

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's the same shortwave that cuts west on 6z but it's further south and cold is better entrenched in the east. My early guess is the GFS is coming south from 6z

Thats what my extrapolating mind was thinking.  Spacing looks better and HP doing its dirty work in the east.  Heres to hoping

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Thats what my extrapolating mind was thinking.  Spacing looks better and HP doing its dirty work in the east.  Heres to hoping

 

What does the NAO domain look like?

Are we getting that Davis Straits blocking trend there after hour 96 ? 

 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Understood.  So we would like something like the 00z Euro run from last night but with a little less stream interaction for example?

Yea, there are a lot of options. No phase would be the coldest with best chance of all snow but juice could be lacking. My total WAG is the biggest snow totals would come from a mixed event with SLP tracking over or to the west. 

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For reference, the 6z euro control run is weaker/further south with the progression. This is as far north as it comes before jumping the coast:

R1Vi4rs.jpg

 

Here's the WAA snow totals:

TdEHG4j.jpg

 

 

Will be interesting to see if 12z goes along with a weaker/further south/less phased progression. The trend is intact for now. 

 

 

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Still far too much interaction between the PV and the mid-latitude trough for our needs. But as those who followed the GFS/GEFS on the storm that just passed through this was the time frame (mid-range) that the GFS/GEFS was overplaying the drop of the PV towards the US/Canadian border. If we see that same bias play out here we probably end up with a pretty good look as we see a further north solution with the PV thus less interaction..

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman 

Yea, I thought the 6z EPS run looked really good. CMC is coming in flatter/colder/less phased as well. When do we start talking about a miss south? lol

Dec 9/10 last year right? But this time around hopefully we're not dealing with a brick wall of confluence. 

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Just now, frd said:

 

 

Hearing the UkMET went South as well. 

As is right now... what the 6z EPS and 12z ICON/CMC are showing is a bread and butter MA moderate event setup. Overrunning streaming up from the TN valley into cold air is probably the most common way our area gets a 2-4/3-6 deal. Some mix/flip and others skid across to our south and quietly out to sea. For d5 leads I really like what I see. 

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

@psuhoffmanLiked the shift south on the 06z EPS as well. Except for occasional glances though I haven't really been following the off runs of the Euro. Any idea how well it is verifying? Any degradation over the 00z, 12z runs?

I’ve not seen but I doubt it’s significantly degraded. Maybe @dtk can clear that up. 

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3 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Dec 9/10 last year right? But this time around hopefully we're not dealing with a brick wall of confluence. 

Just prioritize your worries. Right now the entire thing can easily track to our west with limited frozen and lots of liquid. Let's get rid of that worry before worrying about too much of a good thing. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

As is right now... what the 6z EPS and 12z ICON/CMC are showing is a bread and butter MA moderate event setup. Overrunning streaming up from the TN valley into cold air is probably the most common way our area gets a 2-4/3-6 deal. Some mix/flip and others skid across to our south and quietly out to sea. For d5 leads I really like what I see. 

CMC made a good shift south vs 0z as well.  Still not the flush hit we want, but a good signal. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS made a big move towards a pretty sick west based -NAO in the medium range. If that's real then we can discuss a KU as it relaxes... lol

500h_anom.nh.png

 

Glad to see you and psu are on top of this .  Damn that is sweet !!!

 

 

 

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