WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: That’s a hell of an ice/sleet storm in TX at 234-252. 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Maybe it's just me but I have a thing for epic simulated southern stream panels GFS has been doing these epic D10 arctic highs + southern Plains ice destruction a few times already. Maybe it eventually actually happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS has been doing these epic D10 arctic highs + southern Plains ice destruction a few times already. Maybe it eventually actually happens? If one ever occurs. I'll be reporting to you guys by candle light.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 GFS is taking forever with this system... its like a 3 day storm for the south and SE and still hasn't reached us yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, yoda said: GFS is taking forever with this system... its like a 3 day storm for the south and SE and still hasn't reached us yet That's ok. It could take a decade or more for a storm to actually happen like the d10+ gfs is showing 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We know the op runs will struggle with the details. In general, because we don't have a true block, for this to work it will take some precise timing. That 50-50 low is a transient feature, and the interplay between the TPV over central Canada and the southern energy will be critical. The 0z run got it done by keeping some separation- not capturing the shortwave, and the 50-50 low was in perfect position with ridging over the top. The issue is the HL ridging is just getting established as the 17-18th threat comes along. If the storm this weekend interacts with the TPV and ridging over the top right it could block the storm next week. But I am actually just fine with the GFS idea this morning of phasing that next storm up to our west because the natural see saw reaction of that would pinwheel the whole TPV down over top of us and set up a cold pattern (and given the consistently active STJ probably a legit threat) heading into xmas week. We could win either way. The worst case scenario would be a weaker system on the 17th that somehow doesn't produce but also doesn't phase and then the whole pattern simply breaks down after. That would be the solution I don't want to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I know the maps suck... but TT has 30" of snow/sleet/frozen in NE GA into SW SC at 294 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Looks like a classic rare transfer coming up on the 12z GFS for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 gotta love the GFS, stalls the wave to our west for days until the flow relaxes just enough to cut it due north into a 1040 high. Even in that ridiculous evolution we would get a pretty good period of frozen but I highly doubt that is how it would play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Looks like a classic rare Miller A coming up on the 12z GFS for Christmas With a primary into KY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, Kmlwx said: With a primary into KY? I edited my post right after that... wrong name of the SLP Transfers pretty much over top of us though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The MJO now completely skips the warm phases and is on pace to shortcut us to a real winter by year's end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The MJO now completely skips the warm phases and is on pace to shortcut us to a real winter by year's end! But judah said mild winter coming because the pv will fail to split! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: But judah said mild winter coming because the pv will fail to split! So did I fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 trends are important but given the competing nature of the signals right now and the progressive variable nature of the cold season so far taking any details from specific runs in the medium and long range is unproductive. The look will change, maybe better maybe worse. Tracking how the broader pattern is trending is more important than how a specific run looks from range. I am happy so long as we continue to avoid an extended shutout pattern taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Completely different from last year when we went weeks without tracking anything. Not a torchy December yet at Day 10. And we are tracking another storm in week 3 (GEFS still has hopes of frozen next week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Euro looks like a go for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Well, Euro definitely doesn't look like the GFS for the next wave. Looks decent so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Stronger ridging into the NAO space due to a stronger 50/50 than 0z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 We lose 850s (besides N and W of the metros) at 168 looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Man, the Euro is a real winter storm. Looks like an earlier start vs 0z as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, yoda said: We lose 850s (besides N and W of the metros) at 168 looks like Yeah, its a little close to comfort. It interacts with the TPV in Canada more this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, Euro definitely doesn't look like the GFS for the next wave. Looks decent so far why cant they both just give us snow. why is it always one or the other lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Back to rain at 174. I'd take the thump and run at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Yeah, its a little close to comfort. It interacts with the TPV in Canada more this run. This wasn't ever depicted as an all snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Yeah, its a little close to comfort. It interacts with the TPV in Canada more this run. yeah, psu mentioned that possibility. Still way to early to make any conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: This wasn't ever depicted as an all snow event. For sure. But like you said a nice winter storm. This looks nice up top, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: why cant they both just give us snow. why is it always one or the other lol Well yeah. But either way, not worth getting excited or in angst about it. Still in fantasy time. If this was 120hr..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: For sure. But like you said a nice winter storm. This looks nice up top, however. Well, I am still totally fine with the storm, after the storm after the storm scenario, as mentioned earlier today. At least things are not boring. An active pattern continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Seems like this one could have some potential. Still too far out in fantasy land, especially with a significant system coming in late Friday/early Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well yeah. But either way, not worth getting excited or in angst about it. Still in fantasy time. If this was 120hr..... At least its not sitting out at the 10 day mark like it did all of last winter... we've got in the Day 7 or so range now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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