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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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6 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

That’s a hell of an ice/sleet storm in TX at 234-252.  

 

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Maybe it's just me but I have a thing for epic simulated southern stream panels

 

GFS has been doing these epic D10 arctic highs + southern Plains ice destruction a few times already.  Maybe it eventually actually happens?  

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We know the op runs will struggle with the details. In general, because we don't have a true block, for this to work it will take some precise timing. That 50-50 low is a transient feature, and the interplay between the TPV over central Canada and the southern energy will be critical. The 0z run got it done by keeping some separation- not capturing the shortwave, and the 50-50 low was in perfect position with ridging over the top.

The issue is the HL ridging is just getting established as the 17-18th threat comes along.  If the storm this weekend interacts with the TPV and ridging over the top right it could block the storm next week.  But I am actually just fine with the GFS idea this morning of phasing that next storm up to our west because the natural see saw reaction of that would pinwheel the whole TPV down over top of us and set up a cold pattern (and given the consistently active STJ probably a legit threat) heading into xmas week.  We could win either way.  The worst case scenario would be a weaker system on the 17th that somehow doesn't produce but also doesn't phase and then the whole pattern simply breaks down after.  That would be the solution I don't want to see.  

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trends are important but given the competing nature of the signals right now and the progressive variable nature of the cold season so far taking any details from specific runs in the medium and long range is unproductive. The look will change, maybe better maybe worse. Tracking how the broader pattern is trending is more important than how a specific run looks from range.  I am happy so long as we continue to avoid an extended shutout pattern taking over. 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

For sure.  But like you said a nice winter storm.  This looks nice up top, however.

 

Well, I am still totally fine with the storm, after the storm after the storm scenario, as mentioned earlier today. At least things are not boring. An active pattern continues.  

 

 

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