Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Eps is on board with scand ridging building day 10-15 also. It’s now universal across guidance. That’s important imo because it’s often a precursor to getting out of the crappy NAO look we’re stuck in now. Wave breaking on our side can temporarily help but if we want a permanent flip displacing the entire PV from ridging over the top is a good way to do it. ETA. If it is a sign of a flip we are ahead of past years that flipped and with a much more favorable temperature profile and pac pattern then recently. Something to watch with long range trends. How predictable is this Scandinavian Ridge moving into the NAO region? Is it a lock when you see it ie the progression? With that said, we probably shouldn't start popping champagne bottles until that look is inside 7 or 8 days. We did this last year chasing the NAO at range with unanimous agreement at times. Exercise caution imo until lead time lessens. This year does have a different feel/vibe anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Average snowfall at DCA is only about an inch. Before Thanksgiving everyone was talking about the torchy December. I think most people would not bet the ranch on under an Inch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How predictable is this Scandinavian Ridge moving into the NAO region? Is it a lock when you see it ie the progression? With that said, we probably shouldn't start popping champagne bottles until that look is inside 7 or 8 days. We did this last year chasing the NAO at range with unanimous agreement at times. Exercise caution imo until lead time lessens. This year does have a different feel/vibe anyway. Nothing is ever a lock when it comes to predicting a -NAO. We will know when it happens in real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Nothing is ever a lock when it comes to predicting a -NAO. We will know when it happens in real time. I was more trying to ask is this the most typical progression for a -NAO development. This fall it seemed we were getting either the WAR feeding it at times when the --NAO did develop or more recently the EPO ridge spread East and fed the Western NAO region. Haven't seen the Scandinavian evolution. Is this more of a deep winter thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I was more trying to ask is this the most typical progression for a -NAO development. This fall it seemed we were getting either the WAR feeding it at times when the --NAO did develop or more recently the EPO ridge spread East and fed the Western NAO region. Haven't seen the Scandinavian evolution. Is this more of a deep winter thing? I think a lot of what we have seen lately (at verification) is transient ridging in the NAO space as a result of pieces of the TPV rotating through and pumping up a ridge there. Not that that is a bad thing, but it is really a bootleg/transient -NAO and not a true block. If the overall pattern is supportive, we can score with that, but timing is critical. That's my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 If we could get that energy thats down in Texas to join the party it could enhance Tuesday/ Wednesday somewhat. Right now it doesn't want to get involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: If we could get that energy thats down in Texas to join the party it could enhance Tuesday/ Wednesday somewhat. Right now it doesn't want to get involved. Yup. I mentioned this after the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 What a forum divider on the 18z GFS. Sorry for you NW folks who get fringed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 That was a little different run and look to the Low... still nothing locking cold and the GL interference. This keeps changing run to run - but not in our favor yet! Was hoping for a happy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: What a forum divider on the 18z GFS. Sorry for you NW folks who get fringed. I’ll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 I would think the way this is going now would be hope that low gets as far east as we can get it and as strong as can be and hope it can drag in some cold on the back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I would think the way this is going now would be hope that low gets as far east as we can get it and as strong as can be and hope it can drag in some cold on the back. Stupid GL low and no blocking high..Let's see if it gets up to the 50/50 and sets us up for the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I would think the way this is going now would be hope that low gets as far east as we can get it and as strong as can be and hope it can drag in some cold on the back. I just hope we can all score a few inches and then watch it violently wash away with a mild super soaker a couple days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Stupid GL low and no blocking high..Let's see if it gets up to the 50/50 and sets us up for the next week In a fast flow without a block, we will continuously run the risk of a low appearing over the GLs, and Higher pressure off the maritimes. The exact inversion of what is ideal. Timing will need to be damn near perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I was more trying to ask is this the most typical progression for a -NAO development. This fall it seemed we were getting either the WAR feeding it at times when the --NAO did develop or more recently the EPO ridge spread East and fed the Western NAO region. Haven't seen the Scandinavian evolution. Is this more of a deep winter thing? It’s common enough. Is it a guarantee to evolve from there to a -NAO no. But it’s been how we’ve had some of our best blocking recently. Imo when we get ridging to come over the pole and displace the PV it’s much more effective as setting up a long lasting stable blocking pattern. Ridging over the top of the pole had a hand in both severe blocks in 2009/10, and in what was our most recent sustained cold season blocking in March 2018. Early stages of the Dec 2009 block Jan 2010 block developing Feb 2008 before the March blocking. It’s not the only way. 2011 the block progressed out of wave breaking from the mid latitudes on our side. But it’s been a common way we get good lasting blocking. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I was more trying to ask is this the most typical progression for a -NAO development. This fall it seemed we were getting either the WAR feeding it at times when the --NAO did develop or more recently the EPO ridge spread East and fed the Western NAO region. Haven't seen the Scandinavian evolution. Is this more of a deep winter thing? The -NAO in late Nov was from a retrograding scand ridge. I dont know how frequent that particular evolution occurs compared to other ways. If I'm no mistaken it tends to be more durable....not all the time but typically, imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: In a fast flow without a block, we will continuously run the risk of a low appearing over the GLs, and Higher pressure off the maritimes. The exact inversion of what is ideal. Timing will need to be damn near perfect. I like the look of the following week.. not sure how this is gonna turn out so far out there. Seems good and maybe prolonged... like seeing all the isobars to the Northeast and a high to the north.. will it work?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: The -NAO in late Nov was from a retrograding scand ridge. I dont know how frequent that particular evolution occurs compared to other ways. If I'm no mistaken it tends to be more durable....not all the time but typically, imo. That’s my take also. If we can start the whole pattern cycle of the last 30 days again but going into mid winter next time I think we will like the results. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s my take also. If we can start the whole pattern cycle of the last 30 days again but going into mid winter next time I think we will like the results. I thought the exact same thing when we were seeing those nice ATL blocking looks in Nov. If it's a recurring theme, late Dec--->Jan would be the timeframe for it's return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Does anyone think that the GFS depiction for next weekend will actually take the track it shows at 18z. Actually I guess I'm asking how common is a track like that. I always thought it was either the typical ride up the Appalachians or a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 47 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Does anyone think that the GFS depiction for next weekend will actually take the track it shows at 18z. Actually I guess I'm asking how common is a track like that. I always thought it was either the typical ride up the Appalachians or a coastal. Gefs has a coastal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 HH Eps continues to look snowier for the anafrontal wave. Decent uptick in mean snowfall DCA northYeah man...I’d say it was a very nice uptick in legit hits. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: HH Eps continues to look snowier for the anafrontal wave. Decent uptick in mean snowfall DCA north Much more so for your region than the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Much more so for your region than the DC area. Don't care... give me a 1-3/2-4 and I'm good even if he gets like 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Don't care... give me a 1-3/2-4 and I'm good even if he gets like 5 inches Context Yoda. We were discussing the 18z EPS mean snowfall, verbatim. You are having some issues parsing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Context Yoda. We were discussing the 18z EPS mean snowfall, verbatim. You are having some issues parsing lately. Yes, I know that. My point is so what if the mean snowfall shows him getting 5 inches? Give me 2 and I am happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes, I know that. My point is so what if the mean snowfall shows him getting 5 inches? Give me 2 and I am happy I think the confusion arose from the fact that the mean 18z eps snowfall doesn’t show anyone getting 5”. But I agree with your point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Eps continues to look snowier for the anafrontal wave. Decent uptick in mean snowfall DCA north OP Euro only goes to 90 but its clearly less progressive and not near as strung out with energy as past runs . There is always the danger of too strong a follow up wave and 81 west gets mauled I thought about that. Its a fine line. If the wave gets too amped it congrats Pittsburgh. Hoping for a west trend turns into hoping for a East trend real quick. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Destined to change, waffle and morph but the uptick compared to 12z is notable. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: HH Eps continues to look snowier for the anafrontal wave. Decent uptick in mean snowfall DCA north OP Euro only goes to 90 but its clearly less progressive and not near as strung out with energy as past runs . There is always the danger of too strong a follow up wave and 81 west gets mauled That would be an acceptable outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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