December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[cbmclean]

22 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I swear Wunderground used to provide that, but they don't seem to anymore. 

Wunderground had a lot of cool stuff that they don't have any more.  It has become almost unusable.  I am really mystified at the reasoning behind turning it for a great weather enthusiast site to its current state.

[Bob Chill]

@WxUSAF

Scand ridge signal growing.... Technically this is an east based -NAO too... heh

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the event list for my yard in 2013/14:

11/27: T
12/08: 1.5" snow .25" sleet .20 Ice
12/10: 2.0" 
12/14: .25" 
01/02: 4.5"
01/21: 6.75"
01/28: .5"
02/09: .5"
02/13: 16.25" (13 front / 3.25 ull)
02/18: 1.0"
02/25: 1.25"

02/26: 2.50"

03/03: 5.50"

03/16: 9.50"

03/25: 3.00" (worst measuring event by me. Two closest trained spotters had 3.6 & 3.8)

03/30: .7"

55.70" 

 

Nearly every event on this list is either a clipper type deal or a wave on a front except for 2/13 as that was an organized coastal. Most of the events over 2" were frontal waves with the notables being 12/8, 12/10, 1/2, 1/21, 3/3, 3/16 (not sure about this one). The whole season was mostly progressive waves on fronts. For reasons we'll never fully understand, our area had a bullseye on it from start to finish. I'm not expecting a seasonal repeat of that year again before I'm dead. lol

They may have been waves on fronts but that winter was COLD. Those fronts were colder chasing cold if my memory serves. We have cooler chase less cool right now. We may get a wave but it still may be running into air that just isn’t cold.

[RickinBaltimore]

35 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Wunderground had a lot of cool stuff that they don't have any more.  It has become almost unusable.  I am really mystified at the reasoning behind turning it for a great weather enthusiast site to its current state.

You can thank The Weather Channel for that. 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@WxUSAF

Scand ridge signal growing.... Technically this is an east based -NAO too... heh

Ha, was just looking at that. We would want that NAO if the Pacific looked like that for any length of time. But it seems this year, the Pac flood is always more than 10 days away and the Aleutian low/EPO ridge pair shows back up.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@WxUSAF

Scand ridge signal growing.... Technically this is an east based -NAO too... heh

I was about to say your prognostic skills are amazing. You can clearly see height building over the top from the scand ridge at the end of the run. It’s a common progression, similar to 2016, when the AO NAO do flip. Still too far out but hopefully that trend continues. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

And I think next weekend is still in play. Not sure on the likelihood but if that high scooting off the coast on the gfs can hang in a bit longer it might at least be fun at the start.

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was about to say your prognostic skills are amazing. You can clearly see height building over the top from the scand ridge at the end of the run. It’s a common progression, similar to 2016, when the AO NAO do flip. Still too far out but hopefully that trend continues. 

If I were to guess, I’d say the GEFS is rushing that Scandinavian ridge retrogression. I’d also guess that the pacific ridge will be closer to the coast.

[UniversesBelowNormal]

Hopefully this +NAO December will lead to a -NAO Winter.. I think it will 

[poolz1]

Euro def holding back more energy for a follow up wave....

[poolz1]

Yep...that'll do.  13-14 style....

[yoda]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Yep...that'll do.  13-14 style....

Looks like the 12z GGEM just about for the same period

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like the 12z GGEM just about for the same period

Yeah....not a crush job or anything but would get most on the board.  Would be a nice start to the season and more proof Dec is not going as planned for many forecasts and seasonal models.

[yoda]

Looks like a large cutter going to be coming for next weekend on the EURO... HP is moving out too quickly... but I wouldn't mind it if we can get the Day 4-5 event that the 12z EURO suggests

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like a large cutter going to be coming for next weekend on the EURO... HP is moving out too quickly... but I wouldn't mind it if we can get the Day 4-5 event that the 12z EURO suggests

Weekend deal might cut to Chicago at this rate. I’ll take Wednesday and hug that for now. Plenty of time for the weekend thing to correct itself to something we like better.  

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Yeah....not a crush job or anything but would get most on the board.  Would be a nice start to the season and more proof Dec is not going as planned for many forecasts and seasonal models.

I’ve tried to emphasize since Sept that Dec will be cold and a persistsent occurrence and refreshment of well placed high pressure would occur. The highs are departing nicely as to not  set up a se ridge and this was predicted also. I’m far less confident than most seem to be about what Causes weather patterns but we do have the ability to assess that”when this happens....what follows is that”

High pressures keep showing up and then replenishing. Shoot some low pressures up our way and potential exists. No cold, no snow. High pressure set ups are the key, the moisture will almost always  be present.

 

[Baltimorewx]

Just now, Scraff said:

Weekend deal might cut to Chicago at this rate. I’ll take Wednesday and hug that for now. Plenty of time for the weekend thing to correct itself to something we like better.  

Is Wednesday not a similar setup to what happened a couple weeks ago (cant remeber exact date) but models were showing a wave on the front and snow and it did not materialize that way...I just dont buy these frontal wave snows that often.

[yoda]

With the 12z EURO looking like that... maybe some thunderstorms next weekend instead

 

[WxUSAF]

Euro, gfs, and GGEM all giving me “wait for the storm after the storm” vibes for D11-13. Next weekends fail storm rotates into the 50-50 zone, wave breaks, pops a transient -NAO, and it’s game on. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro, gfs, and GGEM all giving me “wait for the storm after the storm” vibes for D11-13. Next weekends fail storm rotates into the 50-50 zone, wave breaks, pops a transient -NAO, and it’s game on. 

I was seeing that too. Something tells me one or two are going to break right in the upcoming pattern. Definitely love the cold air filtering on this side of the pole in the extended. I might miss my snow chance being home, but would love for y'all to score one way or another. At this rate, ice storm potential keeps going up in these parts the longer this pattern holds. Lots of PAC energy to work with. All about timing for here too. Let's Roll

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro, gfs, and GGEM all giving me “wait for the storm after the storm” vibes for D11-13. Next weekends fail storm rotates into the 50-50 zone, wave breaks, pops a transient -NAO, and it’s game on. 

I like how you roll.  I know some cringe at the "storm after the storm" thing but that is a typical progression for us. 

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Yep...that'll do.  13-14 style....

That's not bad...but what made 13-14 so rare was that the fronts kept stalling and elongating west to east through our area allowing waves to ride along them.  Part of that was how the TPV kept setting up across to our north.  The more w-e oriented we can get the front the better chance of something.  

[psuhoffman]

all 3 globals look to be tanking the AO around day 10.  

[psuhoffman]

GEPS has the idea of the scand ridge pressuring the TPV over the top but with a better Pacific too. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Sacrificing the big storm next weekend for a cutter is what we do best. It sets the pattern for the follow up storm. In this pattern the way the PAC looks, a cutter is perfectly acceptable. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GEPS has the idea of the scand ridge pressuring the TPV over the top but with a better Pacific too. 

GEPS has the Aleutian Low anchored as well....doesnt budge entire run. We take.

[MillvilleWx]

Quick look at the EPS for late Tuesday into Wednesday, there's been a noticeable shift in the timing of the front with quicker progression as thicknesses fall and surface temps have seen a downward trend for the overnight time frame. Below is the model difference from the previous run. Notice the mean is around 2-4F cooler than the last run (00z). Much has to do with the progression of the front, which is important if the area wants to see some anafrontal action. Still a ways away, but that's a nice trend in mean guidance. 

[psuhoffman]

Eps is on board with scand ridging building day 10-15 also. It’s now universal across guidance. That’s important imo because it’s often a precursor to getting out of the crappy NAO look we’re stuck in now. Wave breaking on our side can temporarily help but if we want a permanent flip displacing the entire PV from ridging over the top is a good way to do it. 

ETA. If it is a sign of a flip we are ahead of past years that flipped and with a much more favorable temperature profile and pac pattern then recently. Something to watch with long range trends. 

[WxUSAF]

Eps definitely has a GL low next weekend that’s causing issues, but it way east of the op still with the low. Mean low position is just off NJ coast next Sunday. Would have to see individual members, but I’d guess there are some hits in there still.

[midatlanticweather]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Eps definitely has a GL low next weekend that’s causing issues, but it way east of the op still with the low. Mean low position is just off NJ coast next Sunday. Would have to see individual members, but I’d guess there are some hits in there still.

If we see something, it will be because of something different with the GL Low. I have been "fearing" its interaction since things started going bad. If that is wrongly forecasted we have a shot at something. Nothing is easy on these set ups, so, as Bob says, if we accidentally get something to break our way, it will be really cool!