December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm shocked that the 1052hp on the 6z gfs disappeared. Much weaker cold push = blah

We of the SE forum just lost the wind in our sails.  Maybe it will be back.

[Bob Chill]

GEFS seems equally spread out between amped/rain, mixed, or mostly snow from what I can tell. It hard to capture spread with a single time stamp but this shows it well enough. The only clear thing we don't want to see is a strong storm as all the strong solutions are the wrong ptype. 

 

 

[frd]

I was really hoping once the AO peaked recently we would not have another attempt at a + 3 SD or higher. It appears another run up is possibly on the way. The image below is from the 12/4 , but if you looked today it is much higher. Could not get that to post correctly.  

Having the AO drop down in November was great, but I believe you can not gather that decline as a proxy to what the upcoming winter may have in store regarding NAM  state.

Another deep dive in December I would speculate has more relevant meaning for the months ahead such as Jan. and Feb., maybe even March, versus a November dive down. I am sure there is research on this somewhere. 

I could almost speculate that possibly the drop in November was more an outcome of the combination of typhoon involvement, and early season mechanics. So, I guess more a head fake versus a real signal.  @Isotherm  ,  Benchmark or even HM might be able to answer that possibility.    

 

 

[WEATHER53]

7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And then there's the 6z GFS. Not sure how this track comes with the 500mb depiction after phasing in the South Central Plains but ok.

Eta: has a similar OV low to the Euro as it advances. Without the block to the N that scenario seems almost inevitable ie thump to mix. But for mid Dec....we take. 

With a 30.25 high over us and that low well underneath of us this would stay snow for a long time 

[snowmagnet]

I‘m curious about the performance of the GFS since it was upgraded to the FV3 in June. Last year, the FV3 had all sorts of fantasy storms that never materialized. Does anyone know if it is more trustworthy at this point?   

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I‘m curious about the performance of the GFS since it was upgraded to the FV3 in June. Last year, the FV3 had all sorts of fantasy storms that never materialized. Does anyone know if it is more trustworthy at this point?   

It's the same fv3 as last year. lol

[PivotPoint]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS seems equally spread out between amped/rain, mixed, or mostly snow from what I can tell. It hard to capture spread with a single time stamp but this shows it well enough. The only clear thing we don't want to see is a strong storm as all the strong solutions are the wrong ptype. 

 

 

The overall strength and track of this next rainer coming our way will really set the stage for the cold shot thereafter. A more westerly track of this next system with a strong LP that cuts hard across the lakes would favor us (IMO) for high pressure dropping deeper into the central states thereafter.

This would hopefully allow the retrieating HP more space and time to leave us with a solid CAD, in the event we get a strong enough shortwave to form in the first place. 

Im rooting for a strong system on this next one. Followed by deep dive of Hp into the plains and a shortwave that rides the boundary as the HP retreats to our NE. 2-5in with mix would be fantastic. 

[MJO812]

Webb

I really like the way the GFS & GEFS have been trending w/ the shortwave that enters California in about 60-66 hours (going towards yesterday's weenie 12z Euro run). If we can continue to get more digging & more stream separation on future runs, I might be in business for a winter storm later next week.

[WEATHER53]

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

With a 30.25 high over us and that low well underneath of us this would stay snow for a long time 

This is actually one to be optimistic about as depicted. Solid albeit departing high with a replenishing high to the nw and modest low pressure to our south. Hour after hour of light to moderate snow, surface looks about 28F.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

This is actually one to be optimistic about as depicted. Solid albeit departing high with a replenishing high to the nw and modest low pressure to our south. Hour after hour of light to moderate snow, surface looks about 28F.

The problem is having a good positioned high over a week away is not what we want to see.

[bigtenfan]

16 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's the same fv3 as last year. lol

You mean the same fv3 that gave Philly 2 feet of snow last new years eve?

[LP08]

Nice looking setup on the EURO through 168.

[poolz1]

Similar to yesterday's 12z EC run....this run leaves a piece behind.  

[PivotPoint]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Nice looking setup on the EURO through 168.

Please elaborate kind sir

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Nice looking setup on the EURO through 168.

Whether it's a hit or not, the timing of the HP and shortwave progression is very good. Gives plenty of wiggle room for a weaker/further north HP placement.

[LP08]

Just now, PivotPoint said:

Please elaborate kind sir

Basically what we have been seeing.  High pressure scooting in tandem with a southern low.  0% chance that is has that nailed down at this point but still nice to see.

 

Unfortunately as many have stated, without blocking there will be numerous run to run changes depending on timing of the artic highs and different pieces of energy flying around.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Basically what we have been seeing.  High pressure scooting in tandem with a southern low.  0% chance that is has that nailed down at this point but still nice to see.

 

Unfortunately as many have stated, without blocking there will be numerous run to run changes depending on timing of the artic highs and different pieces of energy flying around.

Exactly. The euro solution verbatim is a toaster bath scenario with cold escaping before precip but the progression/track prior keeps the door wide open. The timing of the weak southern shortwave is far from nailed down. Heck, the existence itself of said shortwave isn't nailed down. 

[LP08]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. The euro solution verbatim is a toaster bath scenario with cold escaping before precip but the progression/track prior keeps the door wide open. The timing of the weak southern shortwave is far from nailed down. Heck, the existence itself of said shortwave isn't nailed down. 

Was just going to post this.  A perfect track Miller A but the High is already off the coast by the time it approaches us.  Let's NOT do this, haha.

[PivotPoint]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Basically what we have been seeing.  High pressure scooting in tandem with a southern low.  0% chance that is has that nailed down at this point but still nice to see.

 

Unfortunately as many have stated, without blocking there will be numerous run to run changes depending on timing of the artic highs and different pieces of energy flying around.

Understood. Thank you

In the season of being thankful I’m thankful tracking something. And the Euro being semi onboard - for now.

[Ji]

Just now, PivotPoint said:

Understood. Thank you

In the season of being thankful I’m thankful tracking something. And the Euro being semi onboard - for now.

yep....20 minutes of wintry mix and then rain!

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Was just going to post this.  A perfect track Miller A but the High is already off the coast by the time it approaches us.  Let's NOT do this, haha.

 

The messy phase and trough amplification is ugly as there zero mechanism to lock cold air in. However, the southern shortwave itself can do the job without needing to phase with anything. This one is going to drive us nuts for a while it seems. 

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The messy phase and trough amplification is ugly as there zero mechanism to lock cold air in. However, the southern shortwave itself can do the job without needing to phase with anything. This one is going to drive us nuts for a while it seems. 

So usual then.....

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The messy phase and trough amplification is ugly as there zero mechanism to lock cold air in. However, the southern shortwave itself can do the job without needing to phase with anything. This one is going to drive us nuts for a while it seems. 

Bob, am I correct that it will be three more days until the shortwave comes onto the California Coast ? The particular latitude may be a player as well. 

If so, more changes are a coming no doubt.   

[frd]

 

I hope HM's hand remains hot at the table. 

 

 

   

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

 

I hope HM's hand remains hot at the table. 

 

 

   

You guys always seem to forget HM is not IMBY-centric like most other Twitter and forum mets so as long as someone in the eastern seaboard is getting snow, he will say it’s a “snowy pattern for the east” and such. It’s often fool’s gold to assume he is talking about anything that will benefit us. 

[Winter Wizard]

I think what's important is both the GFS and the Euro (as well as ensemble guidance) have a strong antecedent cold air mass, west coast ridging and a shortwave tracking along and up the coast. The issue here is timing - if the system can arrive earlier and/or the high takes longer to retreat, then I suspect you could be seeing more favorable solutions. Lots to work out over the coming days, but for mid-December there are far worse looks we could be seeing.

[frd]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

You guys always seem to forget HM is not IMBY-centric like most other Twitter and forum mets so as long as someone in the eastern seaboard is getting snow, he will say it’s a “snowy pattern for the east” and such. It’s often fool’s gold to assume he is talking about anything that will benefit us. 

To me he talks mostly of pattern drivers and such. I would think that benefits a large area. 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

Bob, am I correct that it will be three more days until the shortwave comes onto the California Coast ? The particular latitude may be a player as well. 

If so, more changes are a coming no doubt.   

Yes, 3 days until the southern shortwave hits Cali. The TPV dropping down will dictate the track once it clears the intermountain west though. I don't think variations in latitude will make much different. Where the euro gets really complicated is the northern stream digging down and energizing the shortwave. It's really weak/sheared (almost invisible) D7 but winds up as the streams phase. We're going to have to wait awhile before any type of stream interaction can be figured out. 

 

Models are not going to do well out in time with the split flow happening along the west coast. All the little pieces are important. Ops generally don't start nailing that stuff down until d4-5 max

 

[WxUSAF]

Am I missing something when people say the shortwave hits Cali in 3 days? That’s the shortwave for the cutter and any possible anafrontal activity. Shortwave for next weekend doesn’t look like it comes onshore until like 5.5-6 days from now.

Speaking of the anafrontal wave, euro has it clearly but quite far south.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The problem is having a good positioned high over a week away is not what we want to see.

Well that’s incorrect and sort of the voodoo  pessimism that’s often on display.

it tough to snow around DC but when the set up as depicted is very snow favorable then That Is The Time to go for it.