December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[Weather Will]

15 day EPS snow mean is 2 inches from NW DC line Northward.  About 20 percent of the individual members look good as well with a couple happy hour homeruns thrown in.....lets see if this is a trend starter or a head fake but best look I have seen this year.

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ohhh yes...I'm more or less aware of some of those from previous decades (especially the 70s--I'm guessing those were the 8 years without a storm? Lol) Which is why I only emphasized the last 26 years...Just talking about the current streak we're on, that's all (since that's what is current and has been current). Of course that doesn't, with any certainty mean it'll continue, but at least for now...streak is unbroken  Random flukes, I suppose! (now I will be laughing if we do get a foot this year, though...lol But trust me, my expectations are about as neutral as the ENSO state right now)

But couldn’t that also mean we’re due to break the streak?  That’s the problem with the we’re due index. But there is some truth to the fact we usually don’t go more than 2/3 years without a good snowstorm. So if you want to hug that I won’t stop you. 

[Ji]

On 12/3/2019 at 5:11 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

Thanks for sharing. Everyone has an opinion, and he seems to know his stuff. That being said, no one truly knows. Ever. Op runs end up wrong a lot in the LR. Ens runs are marginally better. I am content to just sit back and see how things roll going forward. It is what it is, and the pattern evolution seems particularly volatile now, probably a bit more so than normal. Simply put, we just cannot know.

His posts are written in the king james version! 

 

Btw...what happened to the gfs fv3...it used to give us tons of modeled snow?

[midatlanticweather]

Oh.. there you are! The hated GL LOW

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Worst modeled cad since a week before pd2

Agree the CAD is missed. Timing looked different this run.

 

[poolz1]

Looks like the euro and gfs ops are focused on two different systems for the D9 system. 

Euro takes the ull off the west coast (hr 72) and  leaves behind a piece.  That system traverses the south and becomes our storm. 

GFS absorbs that ull into the main trough that is the cutter several days before.  But, the gfs brings in a totally dif ull into cali and this eventually becomes our storm.  I like the euro idea better as it is faster and more likely to catch the cold...but it falls right into the old euro bias.  If that is  still a thing?

[Bob Chill]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

Worst modeled cad since a week before pd2

I know you know that this is the first legit threat window of winter but not a good setup for all snow or a big event. You sure you want to get involved? Would 1-3" with a sleet/zr topper be remotely satisfying?

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know you know that this is the first legit threat window of winter but not a good setup for all snow or a big event. You sure you want to get involved? Would 1-3" with a sleet/zr topper be remotely satisfying?

What's nice is that (at the moment at least), it doesn't look like this is a transient window.  Yes, the first arctic high rotates out, but there appear to be more behind it and the background pattern looks to hang around through the following week at least.  

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

What's nice is that (at the moment at least), it doesn't look like this is a transient window.  Yes, the first arctic high rotates out, but there appear to be more behind it and the background pattern looks to hang around through the following week at least.  

Hopefully we get something out of it and it isn't wasted. It is not perfect but close enough for some excitement. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

What's nice is that (at the moment at least), it doesn't look like this is a transient window.  Yes, the first arctic high rotates out, but there appear to be more behind it and the background pattern looks to hang around through the following week at least.  

Yea man, I'm interested in the entire period once we get past warm rain. It's an unusual pattern with both streams burping shortwaves with split flow. The tpv is so big it creates like a quasi 50/50 with compressed flow to our north and general storm track is more W-E than what we typically see with unblocked progressive flow. 

Thing is... do we believe it? Imho- biggest risk is everything evolving into a more typical progressive flow with tracks to our west and cold running away before precip arrives. I'd be thrilled with a 1-3/2-4 mixed event. Having an event in the front half of Dec can be a sign of decent winter. 

[Bob Chill]

Here's a visual showing what I was trying to explain. We're seeing ens converge in this general idea mid month.  I'd be perfectly fine with this setup anytime during met winter. 

[Ji]

47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know you know that this is the first legit threat window of winter but not a good setup for all snow or a big event. You sure you want to get involved? Would 1-3" with a sleet/zr topper be remotely satisfying?

lol i have totally different desires in December and they are very low...just enough snow/ice to cover the grass and snow on the christmas lights with cardinals flying and stuff. So yea..1-3 would be great....just want a brief live hallmark movie scene

[frd]

@Maestrobjwa I know you have an interest in this, I bring you a couple short posts from 33, one from a very informed member, the other from a met.   

From Bring-Back 1962-63

Low solar "can" be associated with colder winters.  More often the coldest winters tend to be just after the solar minimum.  We are right at the minimum right now.  There is usually a run of 3 winters which "can" be influenced and any combo of 0, 1, 2 or all 3 can see colder patterns. 

The last minimum was in 2009 and there was a triple hit.  In the UK (and Western Europe) we had a cold winter in 2008/9, 2009/10 and the coldest Dec since 1890 in 2010/11 (although the 2nd half of that winter was mild).

From Analog96 

DT was talking about that ( this might be a protracted min ) and how it could impact NEXT winter, as well.

Now, I just want to point out one thing.  Being in a solar minimum does NOT guarantee cold winters.

HOWEVER, it biases everything toward colder. 

Atmospheric indices/teleconnections, etc, still rule the atmospheric response.

BUT in a solar minimum, cold teleconnections will verify colder than otherwise, and warm teleconnections would verify "less" warm.

Teleconnections that favor average temperatures would probably result in a bit cooler than average.

 

 

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol i have totally different desires in December and they are very low...just enough snow/ice to cover the grass and snow on the christmas lights with cardinals flying and stuff. So yea..1-3 would be great....just want a brief live hallmark movie scene

Dude, I've known you for like 14 years and never once have you broken character...until this post. I think we need to send someone out to check on you

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, I've known you for like 14 years and never once have you broken character...until this post. I think we need to send someone out to check on you

He forgot he was on American...he was still in Jay's Wintry Mix mode when he posted that. Ji will be back when we get 1-3 and philly gets 6-10

[frd]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, I've known you for like 14 years and never once have you broken character...until this post. I think we need to send someone out to check on you

I had to read it twice until I realized it was Ji who wrote it . Very philosophical. 

[poolz1]

18z gefs leaves the door open for a follow up wave D7-8.  A long shot but currently the lowest hanging fruit...

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

18z gefs leaves the door open for a follow up wave D7-8.  A long shot but currently the lowest hanging fruit...

A few op runs have hinted at that. 0z euro and the last couple GGEM runs I think. Key would be a bit of wave spacing so the cold air can get here and then the wave can ride along the boundary. 

[poolz1]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A few op runs have hinted at that. 0z euro and the last couple GGEM runs I think. Key would be a bit of wave spacing so the cold air can get here and then the wave can ride along the boundary. 

Yeah, GGEM has been hinting the last several runs. 

It really is amazing how many of these we scored in 13/14....such a touchy way to get snow.  So many things can go wrong quick....more than usual.  But, this is about the timeframe those systems started showing up on models in those years....maybe more around the D5-6 timeframe.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, frd said:

@Maestrobjwa I know you have an interest in this, I bring you a couple short posts from 33, one from a very informed member, the other from a met.   

From Bring-Back 1962-63

Low solar "can" be associated with colder winters.  More often the coldest winters tend to be just after the solar minimum.  We are right at the minimum right now.  There is usually a run of 3 winters which "can" be influenced and any combo of 0, 1, 2 or all 3 can see colder patterns. 

 

The last minimum was in 2009 and there was a triple hit.  In the UK (and Western Europe) we had a cold winter in 2008/9, 2009/10 and the coldest Dec since 1890 in 2010/11 (although the 2nd half of that winter was mild).

From Analog96 

DT was talking about that ( this might be a protracted min ) and how it could impact NEXT winter, as well.

Now, I just want to point out one thing.  Being in a solar minimum does NOT guarantee cold winters.

HOWEVER, it biases everything toward colder. 

Atmospheric indices/teleconnections, etc, still rule the atmospheric response.

BUT in a solar minimum, cold teleconnections will verify colder than otherwise, and warm teleconnections would verify "less" warm.

Teleconnections that favor average temperatures would probably result in a bit cooler than average.

 

 

I see...so if a winter was gonna be warmer, add in the minimum and we get average. Cold + minimum=below average...that's interesting! Now...wonder what bearing that has on snowfall totals? (I'd like to see this expanded to explore that relationship). And what happens with those teleconnections (like the AO, NAO, etc)

While this says that colder winters come just AFTER the minimum, the snowier winters seem to be more split between just before minimum (1995/96) and just after (2009/10). So now the question is...where will things fall for this winter? Lol And since I'm in weather streaks mode...I will mention that we have cashed in on the last three minimums (starting with 1986/87). Now before that the results were a little more varied (but still more cash-ins than misses near solar minimums!

[yoda]

I wouldn't mind tonights 00z GGEM run.  Get that 2nd storm a bit further south in its track and we'd all be happy

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

I wouldn't mind tonights 00z GGEM run.  Get that 2nd storm a bit further south in its track and we'd all be happy

0z GGEM right on the coast or just inside, 0z GFS southern slider, 0z Euro amped and in Ohio. About right at this range. GFS is slow moving out the Southwest ULL so never phases. GGEM and Euro phase as the energy in the stj comes East but big diffs in timing of the NS sw. A fluke is still possible but without the Atl cooperating and no HL block going to be tough to get an all snow situation out of that. I think it was Bob that mentioned a cut West thump to rain is most likely in this setup if a full phase were to occur. Less of a phase would be better and that would likely benefit you guys more under the M/D line as it slides. At least we have something to track. Expectations in check for this one tho.

[Ralph Wiggum]

And then there's the 6z GFS. Not sure how this track comes with the 500mb depiction after phasing in the South Central Plains but ok.

Eta: has a similar OV low to the Euro as it advances. Without the block to the N that scenario seems almost inevitable ie thump to mix. But for mid Dec....we take. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And then there's the 6z GFS. Not sure how this track comes with the 500mb depiction after phasing in the South Central Plains but ok.

Eta: has a similar OV low to the Euro as it advances. Without the block to the N that scenario seems almost inevitable ie thump to mix. But for mid Dec....we take. 

Surface stays pretty cold but we need a block up north.

[Weather Will]

Clown map Kuchera 6zGFS WB through next weekend.  Would be great if we reach the total snowfall most long range forecasters are predicting for DC by mid December.  I love the pattern.  If not this one,  I think it will be fun this winter.  Lots of potential.  We just need a little luck which no model or forecaster knows how to calculate.  That is one reason why this hobby is so fun.

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Surface stays pretty cold but we need a block up north.

There is some ridging to the N of it and a well-timed transient 50/50 so it isnt horrible. Would like to see the ridging to the N of the ULL stay in tact and spread East with the system. Have actually seen that look quite a few times over the past 6 weeks or so as higher height break off the West Coast ridge and propogate downstream. Solid potential showing on the ops tho so there's that. But alas it will look different next run and the 36 runs thereafter lol.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Surface stays pretty cold but we need a block up north.

Its a progressive pattern with no NA blocking. None. There is going to be cold air around, and some action in the southern jet. With all the moving pieces its going to come down to timing and luck. Imo, we need to root for something like the 0z GFS/GEFS is depicting.

eta- what i am rooting for in this type of pattern would likely give your area bupkis. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

That “storm” is showing up all over the gfs ens. Obviously there are timing differences and p-type differences, but it’s there for certain.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That “storm” is showing up all over the gfs ens. Obviously there are timing differences and p-type differences, but it’s there for certain.

I liked what I saw on the 0z GEFS. More than one opportunity in this period-

 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That “storm” is showing up all over the gfs ens. Obviously there are timing differences and p-type differences, but it’s there for certain.

Seems that the EPS and the GEFS are worlds apart in the eventual outcome. 

But, as mentioned already, without any significant help from the NAO or the AO regions any storm will simply cut despite how cold it is close to the event.