December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

@psuhoffman No ideas worth mentioning. I'm inclined to think it's nothing more than the streaky/tricky nature of how we get snow and not some big picture change in climate. Some years the little things that we always need to help snow chances come easy and other years the little things do the opposite and screw us. 

I do like where the GFS/GEFS is going in fantasy land. This is a great overrunning type pattern and supports the op's general idea:

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, no idea. It’s all such small sample size statistics and then try and account for a warming climate and who TF knows? Not to mention how much random chance impacts our snowfall vs. places farther north. 

Yea that’s why I feel how this winter goes could be a bit telling. Chance is huge. But if we get a decent pattern much of the year and just get unlucky a lot that would register differently in my mind than if we simply have very few real threats.  On the other hand I wouldn’t want to repeat 2000 again. The pattern sucked other than 10 days but we got hit 3 times by all 3 storms in the only workable window all year. A repeat of that likely wouldn’t end as well. 

[Ji]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea that’s why I feel how this winter goes could be a bit telling. Chance is huge. But if we get a decent pattern much of the year and just get unlucky a lot that would register differently in my mind than if we simply have very few real threats.  On the other hand I wouldn’t want to repeat 2000 again. The pattern sucked other than 10 days but we got hit 3 times by all 3 storms in the only workable window all year. A repeat of that likely wouldn’t end as well. 

ill take a 2000 repeat again...that was a glorious couple of weeks and its usually better than 90% of the winters we usually get

[WxUSAF]

Holy cow is the GEFS ever ripe D8-10. Confluence in New England from the TPV in Labrador, coupled PNA/EPO ridging out west and a gorgeous deep s/w moving through the southern plains. Precip panels look lovely. 

[frd]

 

Interesting in regards to the GEFS and the trends in the -EPO  

 

 

 

[LP08]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Holy cow is the GEFS ever ripe D8-10. Confluence in New England from the TPV in Labrador, coupled PNA/EPO ridging out west and a gorgeous deep s/w moving through the southern plains. Precip panels look lovely. 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Alright mods, this is a WDI (we're due index) post, so if this is a bit much feel free to move to banter:

I've always bee intrigued by a strange trend: By the BWI numbers...Since 1993, we have never gone more than 4 years without getting at least one snowstorm that gives us a foot (so usually every 3-4 years!) This winter will mark 4 years since 2016...Trends can always be broken, of course...but until it's broken, I'll put a little hope in it!  

(Note: Again, this is based stricly on BWI records...obviously some folks got a foot last year...but BWI didn't, lol)

(2 footer snowstorms have a similar, but longer trend: it's always every 6-7 years. 2016 was 6 years from 2010...wonder if that means we get another in 2022 or 2023? Lol)

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright mods, this is a WDI (we're due index) post, so if this is a bit much feel free to move to banter:

I've always bee intrigued by a strange trend: By the BWI numbers...Since 1993, we have never gone more than 4 years without getting at least one snowstorm that gives us a foot (so usually every 3-4 years!) This winter will mark 4 years since 2016...Trends can always be broken, of course...but until it's broken, I'll put a little hope in it!  

(Note: Again, this is based stricly on BWI records...obviously some folks got a foot last year...but BWI didn't, lol)

(2 footer snowstorms have a similar, but longer trend: it's always every 6-7 years. 2016 was 6 years from 2010...wonder if that means we get another in 2022 or 2023? Lol)

I don't think the WDI has any real value,  whether by chaos or statistical merit. Too short a reference period as well.

If you look way back there are periods when many years pass without any real significant snow.   

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright mods, this is a WDI (we're due index) post, so if this is a bit much feel free to move to banter:

I've always bee intrigued by a strange trend: By the BWI numbers...Since 1993, we have never gone more than 4 years without getting at least one snowstorm that gives us a foot (so usually every 3-4 years!) This winter will mark 4 years since 2016...Trends can always be broken, of course...but until it's broken, I'll put a little hope in it!  

(Note: Again, this is based stricly on BWI records...obviously some folks got a foot last year...but BWI didn't, lol)

(2 footer snowstorms have a similar, but longer trend: it's always every 6-7 years. 2016 was 6 years from 2010...wonder if that means we get another in 2022 or 2023? Lol)

This is something that is inconclusive and I never think you would get anything out of it. I would link this to the ALAI (Animal Life Activity Index) where, just before a snow, there is a huge uptick in animals (mainly squirrels and deer) foraging for food.. also geese flying. I am certain there is a correlation, but no good evidence to back it up. 

 

[LP08]

Euro going to tease us again around day 8.

[yoda]

I like that look on the 12z EURO at Day 8

[Bob Chill]

Just a little CAD on the euro

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

I don't think the WDI has any real value,  whether by chaos or statistical merit. Too short a reference period as well.

If you look way back there are periods when many years pass without any real significant snow.   

 

 

Oh of course...so it could mean nothing at all. Just a current streak in a small 26 year window that hasn't yet been broken. (now I'm a streak guy, and when something is current, I'll put just a few coins of hope in it until it breaks, lol) Could always be broken anytime! (And of course WDI is just a joking term, lol)

[yoda]

CAD still holding tough at 216 on 12z EURO at the 850mb level

[LP08]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Just a little CAD on the euro

Ice storms in the SC foothills are usually good for us....lol

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This is something that is inconclusive and I never think you would get anything out of it. I would link this to the ALAI (Animal Life Activity Index) where, just before a snow, there is a huge uptick in animals (mainly squirrels and deer) foraging for food.. also geese flying. I am certain there is a correlation, but no good evidence to back it up. 

 

Totally get that from a statistical view...just something kinda fluky that doesn't have an explanation. (now it will be funny if we do indeed get a foot at one point this winter, lol)

[Bob Chill]

Euro shows how short the window for winter wx is with no blocking and progressive flow. Weird evolution and that's a red flag in itself but the idea of running precip into cold HP remains on the table for late next week. Like always... small differences in timing and placement will have large impacts on sensible wx. It's how we roll in these parts without a block. 

[WxUSAF]

Always hilarious how fast models erode CAD. Euro goes from ice into Alabama to rain in Allentown, PA, in 18 hours. Ok, yeah, sure. 

[yoda]

Would seem that the 12z GEFS and the 12z EURO OP runs today SUGGEST that Days 8-10 could be a threat window for our region for wintry precip

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Would seem that the 12z GEFS and the 12z EURO OP runs today SUGGEST that Days 8-10 could be a threat window for our region for wintry precip

None for @C.A.P.E. though. 

Fun tracking times ahead! I hope anyway. That first storm OBS thread will be LIT. 

[Ji]

i just want some snow over the christmas lights....Looking forward to the Dec 18th storm too

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

ill take a 2000 repeat again...that was a glorious couple of weeks and its usually better than 90% of the winters we usually get

I would take the results of course. What I meant is a repeat of that years base state pattern would be unlikely to produce as good a result. We got lucky and hit in every potential in an otherwise crap year. Raging +AO all 3 months and not even a good PAC. It stands out as a fluke Nina simply because we got lucky imo. 

[showmethesnow]

The latest EPS is more in line with the overnight GEFS. Not as aggressive pushing southward with the initial cold dump reserving more energy for an eastward push. Thus we are seeing a better breakdown of the higher heights (WAR) moving forward through the extended. Somewhat subtle differences from the overnight ESP run when looking at the 7 day mean at the end of the extended (pretty close to the overnight GEFS look) but they mean the difference between a Meh look and a Hmmmm.... look.

[MillvilleWx]

Despite the Euro Deterministic eroding the cold air quickly at the day 9-10 time frame with the southern system coming out, there ECM does a good job signaling how persistent and deep the CAD wedge is. This is important because the current setup is a strong isentropic upglide signature with southerly flow aloft with north/northeast flow positioned at the surface due to the surface ridge over the northeast. At range, globals will will struggle with handling any kind of pronounced CAD, but means on the ensembles will give a better depiction. Below is a gif from the ECM showing 2m T anomalies (deg C). Notice how strong the wedge sig on this one. With H85 winds directed out of the south, there would be a moderation above the deck, so it's a classic look of snow to mix to zr to potential rain pending latitude. We know how our climo works. I agree with WxUSAF, that signature would not scour the cold that fast. That's got winter wx written all over it. Only 8-9 days away! 

[WxUSAF]

Webb is IN

 

Maybe

 

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright mods, this is a WDI (we're due index) post, so if this is a bit much feel free to move to banter:

I've always bee intrigued by a strange trend: By the BWI numbers...Since 1993, we have never gone more than 4 years without getting at least one snowstorm that gives us a foot (so usually every 3-4 years!) This winter will mark 4 years since 2016...Trends can always be broken, of course...but until it's broken, I'll put a little hope in it!  

(Note: Again, this is based stricly on BWI records...obviously some folks got a foot last year...but BWI didn't, lol)

(2 footer snowstorms have a similar, but longer trend: it's always every 6-7 years. 2016 was 6 years from 2010...wonder if that means we get another in 2022 or 2023? Lol)

Just some numbers you can add for your reference.

Snowfall in one location can be very fluke but in the last 30 years 9/30 featured a widespread 10”+ event over a significant portion of our region. That’s exactly 30%. Going back to 1950 it’s 21/70. That’s also exactly 30%!  

1 time we went 8 years between storms 

1 time 7 years

1 time 5 years

4 times  3 years. 

5 times 2 years 

4 times 1 year 

5 times we had back to back years with big snowstorms 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Is it the MJO going into phase 2 that's protecting us from the positive arctic teleconnections?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Is it the MJO going into phase 2 that's protecting us from the positive arctic teleconnections?

Maybe but we are warming for a couple days as it spikes. Heights then rise at the high latitudes. After that of the AO goes extremely positive we would likely warm again but by then we are way outside the the range guidance is reliable. 

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just some numbers you can add for your reference.

Snowfall in one location can be very fluke but in the last 30 years 9/30 featured a widespread 10”+ event over a significant portion of our region. That’s exactly 30%. Going back to 1950 it’s 21/70. That’s also exactly 30%!  

1 time we went 8 years between storms 

1 time 7 years

1 time 5 years

4 times  3 years. 

5 times 2 years 

4 times 1 year 

5 times we had back to back years with big snowstorms 

Ohhh yes...I'm more or less aware of some of those from previous decades (especially the 70s--I'm guessing those were the 8 years without a storm? Lol) Which is why I only emphasized the last 26 years...Just talking about the current streak we're on, that's all (since that's what is current and has been current). Of course that doesn't, with any certainty mean it'll continue, but at least for now...streak is unbroken  Random flukes, I suppose! (now I will be laughing if we do get a foot this year, though...lol But trust me, my expectations are about as neutral as the ENSO state right now)

[Chris78]

I prefer the control run of the euro for the day 8 -10.