WinterWxLuvr Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: No, it’s either the 50th or 75th percentile or the first standard deviation. You’re right, I didn’t zoom in. Looks like a box whisker plot. But that would mean it’s not a percentile because that would be more uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Of course I'd much prefer a -ao but the long range doesn't look bad at all anymore. There will likely be a shortlived period of zonal/pac air next week but there's universal agreement on the pna going up and keeping us in a "non-shutout pattern". My gut hunch is the epo will not be hostile either. I'm also not sold on a long duration big nasty +ao setting up shop. A lot of hints being dropped that blocking (of some kind) will be close by. We all want a perfect pattern 24/7 but that's no how it works. Ultimately we just need to spend as much time as possible in a non-shutout pattern and just let simple odds take over. Our area typically needs 4 legit chances per event that actually delivers. Keep the non shutout pattern going, the chances coming, and we'll score. There's nothing worse than a 4-6+ week shutout pattern setting up during met winter. I'm not seeing that threat at all right now and that's a good reason to have a happy weenie I just have nightmares of a pig Pacific vortex or a 594 dm death ridge in the Atlantic a la Dec 2015. They haunt me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’re right, I didn’t zoom in. Looks like a box whisker plot. But that would mean it’s not a percentile because that would be more uniform. Percentiles aren't necessarily symmetric. It all depends on the underlying data. There must be some extreme outliers on both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukmet total snow through Tuesday. Not sure the algorithm used but I'd take it . I heard in the winter of 2019-2020, the Ukmet is using the algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 If the 12z Euro is correct Philly into most of NJ is in for a pummeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Is the ukie snow from the ULL? I’m getting a bit less skeptical of some snow from that, particularly for @mappy and other jackpotville residents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: If the 12z Euro is correct Philly into most of NJ is in for a pummeling. Deform band? How’s the ULL look for us? I’m resigned to the WAA probably just being some pingers for N MD before the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Deform band? How’s the ULL look for us? I’m resigned to the WAA probably just being some pingers for N MD before the rain. It's all backside love with the ULL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: It's all backside love with the ULL. Euro snow map looks a lot like the GGEM and ukie. Looking better that the northern 1/3rd of the subforum could be measuring Monday evening. I’m gonna do my best to slant stick 0.1”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Plenty of time for the blues to propagate sw! :)0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Ooh..pretty ULL pass there! ^^ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Let the "trend" continue... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 That looks REALLY good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Let the "trend" continue... Looks like the major models all trended south/southwest today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Whoa! Euro using the algorithm of the Ukmet. Seriously. We might not even need to slant stick our way to getting on the board. Hope this trend keeps up for the rest of today’s runs. Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just a bit stronger with the ridging N/NW of the upper low this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 I wouldn't count out getting some snow from the upper level low/wrap around from the coastal low. Looking at the individual members of the eps theres over a dozen that get snows from the coastel low into central and northeastern md and even more that gets good snows into southern/eastern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Noticed that. And today's runs have a theme so far of the ull low tugging or catching the surface low better "pulling"the surface low further sw ...most models have showed this today. I've also noticed the tendency of some guidance with the low further sw dont continue on a northeast trajectory but east which could keep eastern areas in the qpf longer . Here's to another 50 - 100 mile shift sw I’m not expecting this and am generally optimistic we get some snow from the ULL but one thing to be careful of if the coastal ends up closer but not close enough, we could end up in the subsidence outside the banding. If the coastal was further away it would actually increase our chances of convective banding with the ULL. A trend towards a closer coastal ups the ante for all or nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Should be bullseyed by Sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Where are those crazy weenie gem ensembles when you need them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Per request 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: With that kind of ULL pass, how are the snow maps showing virtually nothing for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 High pressures are being undervalued by models..This is the winter of well situated highs so add about 5-8mb to the crunch time assessments of 48-72 hours in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 37 minutes ago, osfan24 said: With that kind of ULL pass, how are the snow maps showing virtually nothing for us? The airmass is not bitterly cold or anything. It may be "cold enough" in spots but it's also still a time when we are fighting climo. A good ULL pass doesn't guarantee snow of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 51 minutes ago, osfan24 said: With that kind of ULL pass, how are the snow maps showing virtually nothing for us? Baby Steps? Lol better than last run. Ens mean looked better too. Has 1.0" imby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The airmass is not bitterly cold or anything. It may be "cold enough" in spots but it's also still a time when we are fighting climo. A good ULL pass doesn't guarantee snow of course. Exactly. Air mass is very marginal at the surface. Down this way precip will have to fall at a good clip to cool the column. That happens to an extent on the 12z Euro, but much more so to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Fwiw here is the 12z Euro ens mean snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Fwiw here is the 12z Euro ens mean snowfall map.18z is out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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