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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Of course I'd much prefer a -ao but the long range doesn't look bad at all anymore. There will likely be a shortlived period of zonal/pac air next week but there's universal agreement on the pna going up and keeping us in a "non-shutout pattern". My gut hunch is the epo will not be hostile either. I'm also not sold on a long duration big nasty +ao setting up shop. A lot of hints being dropped that blocking (of some kind) will be close by. 

We all want a perfect pattern 24/7 but that's no how it works. Ultimately we just need to spend as much time as possible in a non-shutout pattern and just let simple odds take over. Our area typically needs 4 legit chances per event that actually delivers. Keep the non shutout pattern going, the chances coming, and we'll score. There's nothing worse than a 4-6+ week shutout pattern setting up during met winter. I'm not seeing that threat at all right now and that's a good reason to have a happy weenie

I just have nightmares of a pig Pacific vortex or a 594 dm death ridge in the Atlantic a la Dec 2015.   They haunt me.

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26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You’re right, I didn’t zoom in. Looks like a box whisker plot. But that would mean it’s not a percentile because that would be more uniform.

Percentiles aren't necessarily symmetric.  It all depends on the underlying data.  There must be some extreme outliers on both sides.

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I wouldn't count out getting some snow from the upper level low/wrap around from the coastal low. Looking at the individual members of the eps theres over a dozen that get snows from the coastel low into central and northeastern md and even  more that gets good snows into southern/eastern pa. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Noticed that.  And today's runs have a theme so far of the ull low tugging or catching the surface low better "pulling"the surface low further sw ...most models have showed this today. I've also noticed the tendency of some guidance with the low further sw dont continue on a northeast trajectory but east which could keep eastern areas in the qpf longer . Here's to another 50 - 100 mile shift sw :weenie:

I’m not expecting this and am generally optimistic we get some snow from the ULL but one thing to be careful of if the coastal ends up closer but not close enough, we could end up in the subsidence outside the banding. If the coastal was further away it would actually increase our chances of convective banding with the ULL. A trend towards a closer coastal ups the ante for all or nothing. 

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37 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

With that kind of ULL pass, how are the snow maps showing virtually nothing for us?

The airmass is not bitterly cold or anything. It may be "cold enough" in spots but it's also still a time when we are fighting climo. A good ULL pass doesn't guarantee snow of course. 

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The airmass is not bitterly cold or anything. It may be "cold enough" in spots but it's also still a time when we are fighting climo. A good ULL pass doesn't guarantee snow of course. 

Exactly. Air mass is very marginal at the surface. Down this way precip will have to fall at a good clip to cool the column. That happens to an extent on the 12z Euro, but much more so to our NE.

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