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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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45 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It still might. This is still a good distance into the future.

Looking at last 6 runs of MSLP, yeah i guess it has trended somewhat S and E, but Id think it a bit of a stretch to get it under us.

 

edit....as i keep watching, it may not bee too far off from doable.

2c8e8211-2479-42ce-b028-7eea076973d4.gif

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

Wow, so how early do the " big spenders " get to see the Euro weeklies.  Out already, normally I look for 6:00 PM. release. 

And yes, the trend is your friend !    Looking forward to seeing the progression.  

 

 

 

 

It' moves to a +PNA, -EPO pattern without much help on the Atlantic side of things.  The "nice" thing is it keeps pushing back that crap pattern.

Euro Weekly.png

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Euro/EPS both agree on speeding up the ULL next week and that's prob the main reason the op had waa snow working out. There will be a half decent airmass in front on the ULL and the 50/50 is going to try pretty hard to not allow it to run east out to sea. To get "easy snow" just root for the fastest track possible of the waa shield. The "complicated snow" with the ULL isn't nearly as clear cut. Calendar and gut instinct tell me that we're chasing a phantom with the WAA snow let alone an ULL tracking SE across our area but I can't remember the last time I've seen such a beast of a 50/50. Maybe being uber conservative isn't warranted. At the very least... we are still in the game for something. An inch or 2 of snow during the first week of Dec would calm a few weenies down (like me in particular). 

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13 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It' moves to a +PNA, -EPO pattern without much help on the Atlantic side of things.  The "nice" thing is it keeps pushing back that crap pattern.

Euro Weekly.png

It's a logical continuation from the 0z run which was already moving  away from the +AO look. Not worth much more than that. 

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I posted this in my home forum but I am thinking (maybe already said here haven't read) that the spike in the AO some guidance is seeing will be short-lived. The reason for the spike imo is the stretching/splitting of the TPV across the AO region and eventually into SE Canada. Once the PV splits or moves chances are the ao returns to negative....neutral at worst. I dont think what we are seeing irt that spike is a pattern flip or something that is permanent. Sure it will fluctuate + and - all winter but I think the panic over a sustained +ao in dec may not be totally warranted. 

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I posted this in my home forum but I am thinking (maybe already said here haven't read) that the spike in the AO some guidance is seeing will be short-lived. The reason for the spike imo is the stretching/splitting of the TPV across the AO region and eventually into SE Canada. Once the PV splits or moves chances are the ao returns to negative....neutral at worst. I dont think what we are seeing irt that spike is a pattern flip or something that is permanent. Sure it will fluctuate + and - all winter but I think the panic over a sustained +ao in dec may not be totally warranted. 

Did ya hear? Prince died. Bowie too.

 

 

Lol jk. Yes, all of that has been discussed here, obviously.

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I think it was a month or so ago when I posted about the PDO potentially shifting towards the positive phase if the pattern of troughs in the NE pac verifies. It wasn't as much of a shift as I had hoped but the PDO did move positive. I haven't checked the numerical index yet but visually it's no doubt better than a month ago. 

anomnight.11.25.2019.gif

If the trend holds up for another month we'll have a legit +PDO and that's always a good thing. We'll see how it goes as Isotherm specifically included a -PDO as part of his winter forecast and one of the reasons he went warm in the east. It was one of the few things I saw potential problems with when I first read his forecast. 

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4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Comparing 18z to 12z, seems the redeveloping LP is further sw and somewhat larger at 18z . Am I reading this correctly  and if so, does it mean anything significant as to its evolution?

Unfortunately the track of the upper level low is too far north the entire time. Even though you see a surface low pop right off the coast, all the best dynamics and lift are well north of us. Any phasing will take place north as well so the slp won't blow up with a CCB/deform anywhere near us. 

Is there a way we can get into legit coastal action? Yes, there is but not unless the upper level low tracks 150-200 miles south through at least southern VA (NC would be better). We have 3 days or so before models will lock into the track of the upper level low so a south trend better start at 0z tonight. Lol

I can envision 2 realistic ways we can get measurable snow. If the front running band of waa precip juices up and our column stays good we could get anywhere from an inch to maybe 4-5 inches if the stars align. The second way would be the upper level low to track far enough south so we get dynamically driven instability snow as the upper low passes under us. Wouldn't be a big event but someone could get under a band and get some heavy snowfall for a time. 

Imho- I don't see any way we can get a legit coastal storm unless there are major changes with the track of the upper low and even then we're playing with fire as these progressions often (even with a good track) love to skip over us. 

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I agree with @Bob Chill that hoping for a snowy deform band like the GFS is currently showing for the NYC-BOS corridor is tilting at windmills. 

I’m not sure which of the WAA overrunning or the ULL passage is most likely to offer snow chances. Both are likely to be fairly narrow areas and the airmass is marginal in both cases. Today’s euro probably showed max upside. 

P.S. the track shifting a bit south certainly helps the WAA chances. 

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree with @Bob Chill that hoping for a snowy deform band like the GFS is currently showing for the NYC-BOS corridor is tilting at windmills. 

I’m not sure which of the WAA overrunning or the ULL passage is most likely to offer snow chances. Both are likely to be fairly narrow areas and the airmass is marginal in both cases. Today’s euro probably showed max upside. 

P.S. the track shifting a bit south certainly helps the WAA chances. 

Yea, I want to believe there's a way we can get into some coastal action but there's too much to overcome without significant changes. 18z gefs actually shifted north with ind member slp in the midwest/OH valley. This plot is not a way we get coastals. The lows to the SE have no energy to work with. The track of the primary would pull a lot of warm air to the mid levels overhead. 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_24.png

 

 

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22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree with @Bob Chill that hoping for a snowy deform band like the GFS is currently showing for the NYC-BOS corridor is tilting at windmills. 

I’m not sure which of the WAA overrunning or the ULL passage is most likely to offer snow chances. Both are likely to be fairly narrow areas and the airmass is marginal in both cases. Today’s euro probably showed max upside. 

P.S. the track shifting a bit south certainly helps the WAA chances. 

Getting that primary further east would also help a great deal. Get in central Missouri instead of Nebraska would be a start. A couple of gfs members do that.

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