December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The one big reason I want to discount 1961-62 is the nina leading into that winter was notable.

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I suppose the most important thing to watch now is whether or not seasonal guidance is onto something or just another terrible bust. We certainly don't want what the cfs or euro monthlies are showing. Barf

I am curious as to how the weeklies roll the current d15 forward. Dec is only 3 weeks away now... 

New weeklies (based on last nights EPS) continue to push back the seasonal idea. Weeks 3-5 look ambiguous now but not hostile. Things go sideways week 6 but that’s where they have had no skill for a long time so I dont care. 

Week 3

week 4

week 5

[CAPE]

39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I suppose the most important thing to watch now is whether or not seasonal guidance is onto something or just another terrible bust. We certainly don't want what the cfs or euro monthlies are showing. Barf

I am curious as to how the weeklies roll the current d15 forward. Dec is only 3 weeks away now... 

Not a fan of the weeklies in general after last year. Only as good as the eps run they are based off of. Might be somewhat useful in cases where advertised ens LR pattern is consistent across many runs. Otherwise a given weeklies run can become invalid very quickly- like one ens cycle later lol.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not a fan of the weeklies in general after last year. Only as good as the eps run they are based off of. Might be somewhat useful in cases where advertised ens LR pattern is consistent across many runs. Otherwise a given weeklies run can become invalid very quickly- like one ens cycle later lol.

 I’m not buying them either...just pointing out the new weeklies already push back the flip to an awful pattern. 

[cbmclean]

Ah, hello guys, its your brother-from-another-mother down south.  I will be lurking around here because this continues to better sub-forum than my home, as far as hardcore meteorological analysis.

I was considering looking into the MJO forecasts but I am concerned I am am just starting the pain early.  Still having flashbacks from last year's leisurely grand tour through the ugly phases, followed by a lightning rocket through the good, right back to bad.

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 I’m not buying them either...just pointing out the new weeklies already push back the flip to an awful pattern. 

Yea, keep it simple. Anything that shows the monthlies for Dec are in trouble is worth mentioning. Like this:

[LP08]

6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, keep it simple. Anything that shows the monthlies for Dec are in trouble is worth mentioning. Like this:

This too....

[CAPE]

13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 I’m not buying them either...just pointing out the new weeklies already push back the flip to an awful pattern. 

Remains to be seen if there is a flip to an awful pattern ofc. If you look at the teleconnections on the EPS weeklies, the AO/NAO trends quickly positive heading into Dec on the means- not extremely so- but does align with the general idea of what the climate/seasonal models are depicting for the HL. Big grain of salt with all of this. This winter I am basically sticking with the LR ensembles, as the EPS/CFS weeklies/seasonal models are super low skill and a general exercise in frustration to glean anything meaningful. I am content with continuously monitoring 7-10 days out.

[pasnownut]

9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, keep it simple. Anything that shows the monthlies for Dec are in trouble is worth mentioning. Like this:

 

Great to see you back Bob.  Had me worried for a bit.  Hope the break was good for your sanity.  Great convo here guys.  Looking forward to another season of it.  

Looking at ENS guidance that PSU just posted above, it is nice to see the semi persistent ridging in the PAC and a workable look in the AO/NAO regions.  We've all been burned a plenty by LR guidance, but maybe the early calls by some for the NAO to show up this year may be somewhat legit, and LR guidance is still adjusting accordingly.  Wouldnt that be a pleasant surprise?

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

49 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Great to see you back Bob.  Had me worried for a bit.  Hope the bread was good for your sanity.  Great convo her guys.  Looking forward to another season of it.  

Looking at ENS guidance that PSU just posted above, it is nice to see the semi persistent ridging in the PAC and a workable look in the AO/NAO regions.  We've all been burned a plenty by LR guidance, but maybe the early calls by some for the NAO to show up this year may be somewhat legit, and LR guidance is still adjusting accordingly.  Wouldnt that be a pleasant surprise?

 

Strat PV continues to get knocked around like a flyweight in a heavyweight fight fwiw.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Strat PV continues to get knocked around like a flyweight in a heavyweight fight fwiw.

I suggested somewhere a while back that as we "warm" that it may become easier for disruptions of PV which in the short term may be favorable for winter lovers.  Thats just a spitball observation

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Strat PV continues to get knocked around like a flyweight in a heavyweight fight fwiw.

Overnight GEFS pummels the strat vortex with strong wave 1 hits. Not far off SSW territory actually.  @tombo82685 mentioned on that other forum that there’s some historic linkage between the warmer MJO phases and SSWs. We’ll probably be in those phases in early December.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Remains to be seen if there is a flip to an awful pattern ofc. If you look at the teleconnections on the EPS weeklies, the AO/NAO trends quickly positive heading into Dec on the means- not extremely so- but does align with the general idea of what the climate/seasonal models are depicting for the HL. Big grain of salt with all of this. This winter I am basically sticking with the LR ensembles, as the EPS/CFS weeklies/seasonal models are super low skill and a general exercise in frustration to glean anything meaningful. I am content with continuously monitoring 7-10 days out.

Agree. Right now I am cautiously optimistic.  For the last several weeks the monthly and seasonal guidance has been showing a flip to a raging positive AO blowtorch pattern coming just outside the "somewhat believable" 2 week ensemble range.  But as we progress that change keeps getting pushed back in time so that it is always just outside that 2 week range.  November was supposed to be a torch.  Now December.  As long as that flip keeps getting pushed back and stays outside the 2 week range where ensemble guidance has had some skill lately I am starting to feel more and more hopeful that its a mirage and the seasonal guidance is miscalculating a key pattern driver and coming up with the wrong conclusions, similar to last year. 

This year is a bit more puzzling to me wrt seasonal guidance though imo.  Last winter I totally understood their mistake, it was the same one almost all the humans made.  We all saw the global sst patterns and what past analogs looked like and there was almost unanimous support for a winter that looked like the seasonal guidance suggested.  But the atmosphere failed to behave according to expectations.  Certain things went haywire, the MJO decided to go ape into warm phases through the core of winter and the enso failed to couple with the atmosphere.  But I wasn't one to be crapping on the guidance because I made the same error.  The error was easy to see though.  This year I am not even sure what the seasonal guidance is seeing.  The analogs now are a lot harder to find, and less obvious, with way more conflicting signals this year.  So perhaps I am missing something.  A lot of the mid and high latitude signals match up more with an el nino than a neutral so its hard to find good matches.  A lot of the best pattern matches in other ways are stronger el nino years like 2002/3 so its hard to put much stock into them.  But I have seen nothing in the analogs to this current pattern to suggest we are heading towards a raging dumpster fire year.  Most of the best matches were  decent years with a lot of variability.  None of them looked like the seasonal guidance.  So if they are wrong again, hopefully, I am less sure why they are doing what they are doing this time.  

[midatlanticweather]

Just another view of what has already been shared. Not much new here, except, I too am encouraged that things are not easily progressing to crazy ridges and warmth. @psuhoffman - that analysis you just shared on the mixed signals has been echoed by quite a few. I am very much in the camp of above normal snow, but really, it could be based on obvious items, and there are other things that are neither positive or negative. Just hopeful we get some southern stream moisture and some real bombs to make it a great winter... and who knows this year.. reminds me of when someone tries to diagnose an issue with a car and comes up with 40 options of what may be the cause.. no matter what happens, they get it right... LOL! Leaning better than normal winter! 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

I agree 100% with @psuhoffman last post. I'm just trying to see a clear path to how we don't have a sh!tty December. For winter as a whole I really have no strong feelings one way or another yet. Recent trends suggest seasonal/weekly guidance screwed up early Dec as it's been evolving into something far different than first shown. Just a week or so ago the CFS weekly showed this for week 4

 

That's already evolved into this:

 

EPS/weeklies are doing the same type of thing. The big +AO/NAO shown run after run may in fact be completely wrong. I think that's the only thing worth thinking about right now. How do we enter and move through the first half of Dec. If it features blocky flow with a -AO and/or -NAO then idgaf what any seasonal guidance has said this fall. Winter is off to a much better start than any I can think of since the 09-11 stretch. 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Great to see you back Bob.  Had me worried for a bit.  Hope the break was good for your sanity.  Great convo here guys.  Looking forward to another season of it.  

 

I said this in a different reply somewhere but the only reason I took a break is the board became the opposite of fun for me. Hopefully this year doesn't turn into a whine and cheese dumpster fire again. Nobody wants to read that crap 24/7. This board isn't supposed to be therapy for unstable people who can't handle reality. It's supposed to be a place where we discuss weather objectively for better or worse. Don't get me wrong, I get annoyed with our climo as much as anyone else at times and I vent and poke fun at futility too but I don't feel the need to make sure every single person hears about it every 5 minutes for 100 straight days.

If there's one piece of advice that every single weenie needs to think about it's don't get invested in any snow event until it's inside of 72 hours and even that is often pushing it. 95% of our events aren't resolved (or even real) until we get into the 3 day or less range. A d10 fantasy op threat isn't a threat. It's a random idea that there may be a threat. The subtle nuances that go into us actually getting snowfall can drastically change the outcome nearly every single time. If you're going to freak out with every failed event, at least wait until it's a legit rug pull before freaking out. IMO- legit rug pulls don't even start happening until inside of 72 hours but that's just me.  

[pasnownut]

58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I said this in a different reply somewhere but the only reason I took a break is the board became the opposite of fun for me. Hopefully this year doesn't turn into a whine and cheese dumpster fire again. Nobody wants to read that crap 24/7. This board isn't supposed to be therapy for unstable people who can't handle reality. It's supposed to be a place where we discuss weather objectively for better or worse. Don't get me wrong, I get annoyed with our climo as much as anyone else at times and I vent and poke fun at futility too but I don't feel the need to make sure every single person hears about it every 5 minutes for 100 straight days.

If there's one piece of advice that every single weenie needs to think about it's don't get invested in any snow event until it's inside of 72 hours and even that is often pushing it. 95% of our events aren't resolved (or even real) until we get into the 3 day or less range. A d10 fantasy op threat isn't a threat. It's a random idea that there may be a threat. The subtle nuances that go into us actually getting snowfall can drastically change the outcome nearly every single time. If you're going to freak out with every failed event, at least wait until it's a legit rug pull before freaking out. IMO- legit rug pulls don't even start happening until inside of 72 hours but that's just me.  

I like most are totally in agreement.  We by and large are weenies with passion for weather, but like you , I sorta checked out late last winter due to the W/C fest that was running rampant.  It got to the heartiest of weather hounds.  I admittedly burned out a bit and the fun left me for a while.  

Here's to hoping that we can keep it real (and fun too) this year.  We need level heads in here to keep things in the proper perspective.    

Liking the way things are looking in the next couple weeks.  Keep perspecive real gang...Seasonal is a win, and anything below normal and chatter wrt snow is just spiking the meteo football at this time. 

LR guidance already chukin out curveballs, so one must keep the focus on closer lead times and dont sweat every breakdown of a pattern on a 360 hr map  and we should be alright this year.  Here's to hopin.

Nut

[frd]

Really like what is going on the next few weeks in the HL.

In a couple weeks  we have this :

 

We can see here what is going to transpire the second half of November as we move away from record strong vortex to date. 

 

 

Continued weakness moving forward....tropospheric  NAM continues in a negative state 

 

 

 

 

Trends and associations with 02 - 03 winter, a decent QBO analog. 

And wow look at the 1960's

 

 

Hey timelines are different,  but wondering whether we are going to drop big time but just later. 

Here is a mention to 2009 regarding the weakest zonal wind for today's date     (  Weakest zonal wind 10hPa 60N for todays date: 10.6m/s 2009 ) 

 

 

A speculative mention of the GloSea which has done well at certain times, this  for Jan and Feb. 

 

 

 

 

[poolz1]

@frd  I know you have seen the chatter regarding the lack of "coupling", for lack of a better term, between the strat and trop.  Any idea if there are signs of this making a connection down the road?  If not, I wonder how much this all matters.... I have zero knowledge if this is a common theme sometimes when in comes to the PV or if this is an odd occurrence.  I guess the fact that the SPV will weaken can only be a good thing but if we dont get that connection to the trop then, we may end up chasing our tails trying to determine its effects on sensible wx. 

ETA:

 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@frd  I know you have seen the chatter regarding the lack of "coupling", for lack of a better term, between the strat and trop.  Any idea if there are signs of this making a connection down the road?  If not, I wonder how much this all matters.... I have zero knowledge if this is a common theme sometimes when in comes to the PV or if this is an odd occurrence.  I guess the fact that the SPV will weaken can only be a good thing but if we dont get that connection to the trop then, we may end up chasing our tails trying to determine its effects on sensible wx. 

 

Great question.  I am not really sure about the need to couple. First,  there are different ways to get a vortex disruption/warming, etc.

If you go simply by the QBO, and the descent, according to Isotherm we really need to wait for it to decline further, so his forecast of the best blocking is later in season. 

Personally, I like to see the forecasts of wave 1 activity and the vortex weakening. 

Are these forecasts correct, I am not sure. 

I would pay close attention to the next updated QBO value, and the progression of the NAM.  

I refer to this section of Isotherm's ( I bolded the interesting parts to your reply ) forecast and lets see how the balance of November goes and early December.  Maybe it can provide us with hints for the sensible weather in our region for the holidays and late December. As Bob said, if we continue with a  -AO later in November and early  December it will mean red flags as to the seasonal modeling. 

@Isotherm snippet from his winter forecast :

<<

The QBO easterly shear stress will eventually down-well to z30; however, the pace of descent as evinced by the slope, and the temperature profile, suggests that there could be a multi-month period of weak positives or near 0 values, prior to the full transition into negative. Concordantly, the true negative phase should not effectuate tropospheric vicissitudes until the second half of winter, particularly February and March. At which time, it is more likely that the NAM/AO tends on the negative side, countermanding the more positive NAM/AO of the first half of winter. It is – additionally – critical to cognize that the likelihood of the stratospheric polar vortex reaching zonal winds of 40 m/s at the 10hpa/60N level in November is very high. Since that event is relatively anomalous, analogs may provide a further hint insofar as auguring the ensuing mean stratospheric (and tropospheric) vortex state. The vast majority of the cases wherein zonal winds reached 40 m/s continued to feature stronger than normal vortices during the winter. Often, reversals occurred in late winter (late January onward). In this particular winter, I anticipate that the stratospheric vortex will weaken significantly in late January, potentially leading to more tropospheric blocking in February. Whether this results in a technical stratospheric warming event is indeterminate.

 

>>

[midatlanticweather]

HM is thinking that even colder times ahead after the relax! Not much Meteorology added here, but he did predict early cold snaps, before Thanksgiving, and we got it! 

 

 

[JakkelWx]

BAMWX surprisingly coming up with a BN December.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

BAMWX surprisingly coming up with a BN December.

 

 

They are riding a hot hand lately.  I enjoyed the webinar they did a couple weeks ago, the conclusions  are not mere analogs,  or even modeling, but a combination of different methodologies.  They are going with the colder December, 60 % / 40 % but low confidence, very interesting.      

I think later December we roll into real winter. I have never have experienced a winter that starts at the winter solstice, with the shortest days. That would be cool to have the flip start at the end of December, or right near the holidays. Uncle ( from NY forum) has analogs that point to a white Christmas.  I could go for a marshmallow world by Dean Martin. 

 

 

[frd]

28 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

AM is thinking that even colder times ahead after the relax! Not much Meteorology added here, but he did predict early cold snaps, before Thanksgiving, and we got it! 

HM sounds like he is looking for the progression suggested by few that we are ahead in certain time scales. ie. Jan cold that goes into early Feb. Versus Jan turning gradually colder. Hard to say with his short post. So disclaimer alert there. 

If we proceed in that fashion then maybe a later thaw, a Feb thaw if you will,  and then late Feb and through March very cold with active storm threats.   Of course right around Pres weekend :-) going right into March . 

Many have made associations that a cold November = a cold March. That outcome might be even more so certain this year with the QBO and the solar min, later season or renewed late season blocking. Bring it !    

[JakkelWx]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

They are going with the colder December, 60 % / 40 % but low confidence, very interesting.

Yeah don't take their forecast to heart, especially recently with the bad model runs for December about a week ago. Now the disaster torch that was advertised over the past couple of weeks seem to be getting pushed back and now it isn't so much a torch now but just generally mild, so I see how they have a higher confidence for BN vs AN. 

I have noticed that it may end up being the opposite of last year when the long range seasonal/monthly models kept on kicking the can down the road for a NAO block of all blocks that never actually happened until it was too late. The models this year may end up pushing the unfavorable setups back and we could end up averaging a legit -NAO for the winter.

[midatlanticweather]

Grabbed this again. Would need to dive deeper to understand how they made the conclusions.

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I have noticed that it may end up being the opposite of last year when the long range seasonal/monthly models kept on kicking the can down the road for a NAO block of all blocks that never actually happened until it was too late. The models this year may end up pushing the unfavorable setups back and we could end up averaging a legit -NAO for the winter.

This thing that we often lose sight of is the fact that the NAO domain is simply not predictable beyond a week or 2. It's always been that way but with the advent of weekly and seasonal guidance it's easy to focus your eyes on those forecasts. However, the NAO can no doubt be persistent at times and I agree with your last statement. If AN heights do lock into the domain space over the next few weeks then forecasts that show it continuing are much more likely to verify than ones that show "a flip". 

[psuhoffman]

I see nothing alarming on today’s ensemble guidance. 

[pasnownut]

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This thing that we often lose sight of is the fact that the NAO domain is simply not predictable beyond a week or 2. It's always been that way but with the advent of weekly and seasonal guidance it's easy to focus your eyes on those forecasts. However, the NAO can no doubt be persistent at times and I agree with your last statement. If AN heights do lock into the domain space over the next few weeks then forecasts that show it continuing are much more likely to verify than ones that show "a flip". 

As I'm not a stat guy/gal like some on here...any ideas on analog years that have neg temp anomalies for both Nov/Dec?  I've heard the Nov/March theory, but wonder what bringing Dec into the mix offers?

If we can pull this early stretch of BN off, even if we have a relaxation in the pattern early in the year, it sounds possible that we could have notable bookends for this upcoming winter. 

As i have all of these ideas in my mind, I think its also good to see such a strong early season PV, so that if/when it does relax, it can be easier to displace when we really need it.  Follow that with a blockier look in Feb/Mar, that to me sounds like a way to pull off a decent winter.   

Just rambling along here, but I guess the snow shower i just drove through got me a bit cranked up for winter.  

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I see nothing alarming on today’s ensemble guidance. 

Haven't seen the EPS past D10, but I like the evolution of the pattern on the GEFS and the GEPS.  Keep that AO negative and we'll be in good shape.  Doesn't look as cold, but still probably seasonal on balance after D7.