WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 In the unlikely event that the GEFS is right about the early December pattern, there would be a legit storm window around the 3-4th. Strong -NAO with a 50-50, and ridging out west. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: In the unlikely event that the GEFS is right about the early December pattern, there would be a legit storm window around the 3-4th. Strong -NAO with a 50-50, and ridging out west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 hours ago, jaydreb said: EPS looks similar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Hmmm...that's nice to see that the EPS is coming around to the idea of a -EPO/-NAO pattern in early December. Should be plenty of cold air around and with the trough in the west, that should keep the boundary sort of near us, but on balance to our south, and set up some potential overrunning events. GEFS is certainly advertising a robust STJ to keep the pattern active/wet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 12z EPS has the AO and the NAO crossing neutral then heading into + territory around Dec 3-4th. GEFS strongly disagrees. This is obviously something to monitor considering the importance (particularly the AO) to a favorable pattern for cold and snow here. Also the weeklies/climate/seasonal guidance are almost unanimously insistent on a +AO/NAO as we move into December, so there is that. Personally I am not concerned at this point given the beating the PV has taken and is forecast to continue taking going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Ofc it's also important to realize that the AO and NAO phases are determined by surface pressure measurements(difference in pressures in the case of the NAO) in specific regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Ofc it's also important to realize that the AO and NAO phases are determined by surface pressure measurements(difference in pressures in the case of the NAO) in specific regions. The numerical calc is 1000mb pressure but we all know what a good h5 look is no matter the numerical index. These type of long range op looks keep happening and it's intriguing. Not that I think the gfs is right or anything but seeing these solutions are a potential clue that an extreme blocking event is possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Where is the best place to look at 500mbmaps and 500mb forecasts without having to pay? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 I'm concerned about this.. the -PNA flexes just as the -NAO peaks, could be a repeat of 2017, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 As @Bob Chill posted, 18z GFS shows that December 3-4th threat window. Boundary doesn’t get dragged far enough south, but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 I like the look of the GFS at hour 384! hm thinks this may be the time for a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: As @Bob Chill posted, 18z GFS shows that December 3-4th threat window. Boundary doesn’t get dragged far enough south, but interesting. And setting up for our HECS at the end of the run? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 18z Gefs with a stout -NAO at D10....50/50 is perfect....ridge starting to push into NW Can/AK. Dec 3-5th looking better and better... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The numerical calc is 1000mb pressure but we all know what a good h5 look is no matter the numerical index. These type of long range op looks keep happening and it's intriguing. Not that I think the gfs is right or anything but seeing these solutions are a potential clue that an extreme blocking event is possible I was just looking at the LR GFS from 18z just for kicks and noted how convoluted of a pattern is appeared with a massive positive SD anomaly over the Aleutians and a fairly crud PAC BUT up top and the N Atl actually allows for workable conditions. Might be venturing into a season where we see some crud looks yet miraculously they deliver? We can hope anyway and tbh I wouldnt be surprised. We are sort of due even tho I realize that isnt how science works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The numerical calc is 1000mb pressure but we all know what a good h5 look is no matter the numerical index. These type of long range op looks keep happening and it's intriguing. Not that I think the gfs is right or anything but seeing these solutions are a potential clue that an extreme blocking event is possible Absolutely. But at the same time, there is clearly a correlation, in the same way we evaluate 500 mb heights and make reasonable assumptions about the mean temperature in the column below that point, as well as using it as a general (pretty accurate) indication of surface pressures and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Who knows if the GEFS is on to something? All caveats obviously but man....what a weenie run. Similar to the EPS but the -EPO at the end of the run is bonkers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 I feel like with the flip of a switch many posters are back to looking past 240 hours and getting their hopes up. And based on a HH op run at that. I admittedly took a peek but I urge optimistic caution lest we forget last winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: As @Bob Chill posted, 18z GFS shows that December 3-4th threat window. Boundary doesn’t get dragged far enough south, but interesting. Yea man, I keep liking the entry into Dec more and more. The big epo ridge makes complete sense and is what I've been expecting to roll forward. The nao is even more interesting because it's in the med range and all models agree on it. These types of features can be stubborn and models don't do well with figuring out when it's going to relax. My gut says the neg nao will likely be stubborn and it's happening at a perfect time. We need extra help through most of Dec. Get the ao,nao, and epo working in our favor and it's actually not that hard to get an event out of it. I'm expecting the eps to cave to the gefs with the nao. We'll have a stout neg nao in just 4-5 days... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 This +PNA without El Nino is interesting... something else happening. (Alaska was 63F this Summer, previous record 61F) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I feel like with the flip of a switch many posters are back to looking past 240 hours and getting their hopes up. And based on a HH op run at that. I admittedly took a peek but I urge optimistic caution lest we forget last winter. I'm excited about the med term and what it implies down the line... in just 4-5 days we should have the strongest -nao we've seen early during season since 2010. Complete agreement the upper level ridge closes off and parks for a while. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm excited about the med term and what it implies down the line... in just 4-5 days we should have the strongest -nao we've seen early during season since 2010. Complete agreement the upper level ridge closes off and parks for a while. If it wasn’t for the -NAO the East would burst into flames with that h5 look.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm excited about the med term and what it implies down the line... in just 4-5 days we should have the strongest -nao we've seen early during season since 2010. Complete agreement the upper level ridge closes off and parks for a while. That is the best and most significant development so far. The high latitudes seem to want to cycle between ok and great so far. Let’s keep that going. The only thing I’m paying attention to long range is how the forecasted puke pattern of the seasonals continues to get pushed back. A week ago we were saying how it continues to be just outside ensemble range. Another week later and it’s still outside realistic guidance range. Let’s keep that going too. Ive been skeptical but I’m about another week from firmly believing that look is just another seasonal guidance mirage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: If it wasn’t for the -NAO the East would burst into flames with that h5 look.. Yep, the whole atmosphere is full of good and bad features upstream and down. Normally a tendency for a -pna is a dagger in our area with one exception... add in a -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yep, the whole atmosphere is full of good and bad features upstream and down. Normally a tendency for a -pna is a dagger in our area with one exception... add in a -nao. It’s been so long people forget how much a great high latitude pattern can mask other flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm excited about the med term and what it implies down the line... in just 4-5 days we should have the strongest -nao we've seen early during season since 2010. Complete agreement the upper level ridge closes off and parks for a while. It was noted yesterday on some of the ens that those looks.may have legs as you could see some of the transition by days 8ish. So I'm with you and when u r optimistic that's not a bad thing. Just urging caution for some on any specific surface solutions at 384hrs+ lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s been so long people forget how much a great high latitude pattern can mask other flaws. I’m a believer now. Remove that feature with that -PNA depicted on 18z at h5 and we could cook our turkey on the sidewalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I’m a believer now. Remove that feature with that -PNA depicted on 18z at h5 and we could cook our turkey on the sidewalk. You mean we would have almost every December pattern the last 5 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That is the best and most significant development so far. The high latitudes seem to want to cycle between ok and great so far. Let’s keep that going. The only thing I’m paying attention to long range is how the forecasted puke pattern of the seasonals continues to get pushed back. A week ago we were saying how it continues to be just outside ensemble range. Another week later and it’s still outside realistic guidance range. Let’s keep that going too. Ive been skeptical but I’m about another week from firmly believing that look is just another seasonal guidance mirage. Yea, we seem to be getting played similar to last year except this time it's breaking in our favor. Cfs weeklies have been a total dog turd lately. Here's week 2 from a week ago: A week later week 1 looks like this: Completely missed the -nao from just 2 weeks out. Lol. Anyone who worries about the crappy look on the cfs for weeks 3+ needs to look at these panels and ignore weekly/seasonal guidance. My skepticism of Dec being good is slowly becoming confidence that we kick off met winter tracking threats in the med term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You mean we would have almost every December pattern the last 5 years? Yes. You are correct sir. It’s been a painful run. Last year nearly killed me. Actually my tombstone says died in 2019...so not nearly..just dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It was noted yesterday on some of the ens that those looks.may have legs as you could see some of the transition by days 8ish. So I'm with you and when u r optimistic that's not a bad thing. Just urging caution for some on any specific surface solutions at 384hrs+ lol. 18z gefs is loaded with members showing height patterns that make me think snowstorms are possible in early Dec. Looks like an active pattern with plenty of cold near or overhead. STJ would be juiced on most of these solutions too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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