December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[WxUSAF]

@tombo82685 posted this elsewhere, but the ensemble means over the next 2 weeks are a reasonable match to Nino MJO composites in phase 6 in December and then phase 6 and 7 in January. Phase 7 in January is a pretty canonical Nino pattern in many ways. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

There’s a system on the gfs ens at day 9-10 that bears watching. Probably too warm but there are some members that are close.

[cbmclean]

  On 12/20/2019 at 1:17 PM, psuhoffman said:

Only thing I feel confident in is that we should ignore JB tweets. The only thing worse than his social commentary is his weather commentary. 

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Opinion of him is pretty negative on this site.  I wonder how he got to be some famous in the first place.  Did he just get lucky as few times?

[cbmclean]

  On 12/20/2019 at 12:41 PM, BristowWx said:

CMC remains the coldest for Xmas (40s) with GFS (50s) the warmest.  Euro looks in the middle (50).  Its the only thing of interest for that particular day so I continue to look at it. 

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Doesn't the Canadian have a very notable cold bias?

[BristowWx]

  On 12/20/2019 at 3:05 PM, cbmclean said:

Doesn't the Canadian have a very notable cold bias?

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I am sure it does.  Almost sure.  It also has lower heights in NE.  Just a data point. 

[frd]

  On 12/20/2019 at 1:58 PM, poolz1 said:

though, admittedly, I dont know how the IOD and the preip in the western IO will affect/mute this...if at all. 

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The depiction of precip there generally matches the CPC 30 day  precip outlook for January.  Another confidence builder for the STJ to continue moving forward.  

If I can get those positive precip anomalies combined with the recent, day after tomorrow,  cold on the CFS  Jan forecast I would be pretty happy. 

Side note, the SOI although not overaly negative is behaving different than last year at this time, another plus for us down the road.  

 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/20/2019 at 1:58 PM, poolz1 said:

Today's SOI is another negative at -8.46.  Nothing earth shattering but if the gefs is correct this looks to continue and possibly some bigger neg values are on the way in the not to distant future.  GEFS  also indicating a phase 7/8 precip pattern in the PAC.  If correct, we should see the LR start to hone in on a better PAC look I would think.  Though, admittedly, I dont know how the IOD and the preip in the western IO will affect/mute this...if at all. 

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The IO forcing isn't "ideal" but given that look in the Pacific I still think the whole effect of forcing is a net benefit.  A reduction in the standing wave in the central IO would help though.  

[frd]

  On 12/19/2019 at 5:05 PM, psuhoffman said:

There are no signs the MJO is going to clearly help or hurt in the near future.  For the most part indications are it continues to have waves in conflicting positions with no clear dominant phase signal.  

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psu,  this is right along your lines of thinking I believe and others.   I need to study the area of Pac forcing in detail, as there is so much more to it than stating just phases of the MJO.  HM mentioned some other factors to consider as well on a global level. Enough to make your head spin   

a

 

 

[Wonderdog]

I like the look of the 12Z GFS for the storm at end of the run.lp runs into KY instead of Chicago!

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:03 PM, frd said:

 

psu,  this is right along your lines of thinking I believe and others.   I need to study the area of Pac forcing in detail, as there is so much more to it than stating just phases of the MJO.  HM mentioned some other factors to consider as well on a global level. Enough to make your head spin   

a

 

 

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Those MJO plots are not as clear cut as some people think.  A COD can either indicate a weak wave, or as in this case, it can indicate conflicting waves from different regions.  I think the combination we are heading into isnt the worst though.  So long as we get some forcing in the western PAC and out towards the Dateline and the wave in the IO stays out of the Maritime Continent...we should be at least "OK" on that front.  

[Bob Chill]

It's encouraging to see the GFS d10-16 looks exactly like current ens guidance and shows how something can work out. The event itself as shown is obviously another fantasy here now gone in 6 hours but the regime is workable. It's going to take some patience but if we do get real split flow with a decent atlantic like the ens are showing then our chances for snowfall will be above normal imho. 

[WxUSAF]

HM citing the upcoming evolution reminding him of Jan 1987, which suffice it to say, is an analog that few here would complain about.

[Bob Chill]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:20 PM, WxUSAF said:

HM citing the upcoming evolution reminding him of Jan 1987, which suffice it to say, is an analog that few here would complain about.

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CPC superensemble agrees with 2 of the top 4 analogs being Jan 87. 

[frd]

 

@psuhoffman  @WxUSAF Do you recall the sensible weather in this area during the period mid Jan to early March of 1987.  

Regarding the strat evolution as a basis for the question. Thanks 

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:22 PM, frd said:

 

@psuhoffman  @WxUSAF Do you recall the sensible weather in this area during the period mid Jan to early March of 1987.  

Regarding the strat evolution as a basis for the question. Thanks 

 

 

 

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There were back-to-back NESIS storms in late Jan. Feb had respectable snowfall as well.

[WVclimo]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:21 PM, Bob Chill said:

CPC superensemble agrees with 2 of the top 4 analogs being Jan 87. 

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1/1/1971 had a KU storm

[Bob Chill]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:24 PM, WxUSAF said:

There were back-to-back NESIS storms in late Jan. Feb had respectable snowfall as well.

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It was an unusual pattern in the sense that we got crushed in the MA but the NE has a very different opinion of that winter period. 

[Bob Chill]

Heh... GEFS speeding up the transition in the east a little. 12z is the coldest/best look at the end we've seen yet. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

SPV splitting. The TPV likely wont maintain singularity for long.

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:03 PM, frd said:

 

psu,  this is right along your lines of thinking I believe and others.   I need to study the area of Pac forcing in detail, as there is so much more to it than stating just phases of the MJO.  HM mentioned some other factors to consider as well on a global level. Enough to make your head spin   

a

 

 

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Sometimes I feel these patterns and indices are being overcomplicated and possibly muddling the ability to make forecasts in a rational sense. I get the fact that to understand the science as a whole there is a need to delve deeper than the surface. But sometimes a back to basics approach isnt a bad thing. There just seems to be a plethora of A affects B which is affecting C which A isnt directly related to C but more a function of D that is equating to F that leads to G that has a profound affect on A that is......well now look, my coffee is cold.

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:26 PM, Bob Chill said:

It was an unusual pattern in the sense that we got crushed in the MA but the NE has a very different opinion of that winter period. 

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I’m sorry I can’t hear their whining over the sound of my snowblower. 

 

On topic, yeah that GEFS is back reminiscent of that look it had 72 hrs ago before it flipped to torch. But with most of the TPV over the pole. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:20 PM, WxUSAF said:

HM citing the upcoming evolution reminding him of Jan 1987, which suffice it to say, is an analog that few here would complain about.

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Back in the fall when I mentioned that some of the best matches to various factors we look at were mostly Nino's making it hard to get a good analog set without "cheating" and using years that weren't a great enso match...and that is risky given the significance of that one factor.  In the end I tossed the nino years and the 1960's years.  But wrt pattern evolution so far it has been matching those years so maybe I should have gone with my gut and not excluded those.  1987 was one of the years I looked at then tossed because of the poor enso match.  

[Bob Chill]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:34 PM, WxUSAF said:

I’m sorry I can’t hear their whining over the sound of my snowblower. 

 

On topic, yeah that GEFS is back reminiscent of that look it had 72 hrs ago before it flipped to torch. But with most of the TPV over the pole. 

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The final panel is the best one. Must be pretty strong consensus to have prominent anomalies d16. Overall you can't ask for a better panel for our region as the panel implies a good storm track and plenty of cold.  I hope all of Jan looks like this. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:20 PM, WxUSAF said:

HM citing the upcoming evolution reminding him of Jan 1987, which suffice it to say, is an analog that few here would complain about.

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I have VHS tapes of the 2 back to back storms that month with news footage and home video material. Remember it well....nice pattern. I'm old.

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill @WxUSAF wrt 1987

One of those January storms fringed me so there is that!

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:22 PM, frd said:

 

@psuhoffman  @WxUSAF Do you recall the sensible weather in this area during the period mid Jan to early March of 1987.  

Regarding the strat evolution as a basis for the question. Thanks 

 

 

 

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There were 3 major NESIS storms during the period.  

1. 
2. 
3. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:37 PM, Bob Chill said:

The final panel is the best one. Must be pretty strong consensus to have prominent anomalies d16. Overall you can't ask for a better panel for our region as the panel implies a good storm track and plenty of cold.  I hope all of Jan looks like this. 

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Just need this to hold for 16 days and we are good...

What could possibly go wrong?

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:22 PM, frd said:

 

@psuhoffman  @WxUSAF Do you recall the sensible weather in this area during the period mid Jan to early March of 1987.  

Regarding the strat evolution as a basis for the question. Thanks 

 

 

 

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I know ground truth it was a great month for our region.  There were 3 major east coast storms during the month.  The one early month was better for the far NW parts of our region and mostly rain 95 southeast.  It was about 6-7" up here.  The next was pretty good across the area but better NW of 95 than SE, and the 3rd one was better SE of 95 than NW and fringed me up here.  But by the time it was over everyone was above normal snowfall.  

[WVclimo]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:43 PM, psuhoffman said:

I know ground truth it was a great month for our region.  There were 3 major east coast storms during the month.  The one early month was better for the far NW parts of our region and mostly rain 95 southeast.  It was about 6-7" up here.  The next was pretty good across the area but better NW of 95 than SE, and the 3rd one was better SE of 95 than NW and fringed me up here.  But by the time it was over everyone was above normal snowfall.  

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When the STJ got cranking mid-January it was a lot of fun.   There was a 1-2" rainstorm on Sunday into Monday, followed by the heavy wet snow on Thursday.  Then the bottom fell out of the temps.  The second snowstorm on Sunday that fringed your area started with temps in the teens, and afterward there were a couple of below-zero nights outside of the cities.  I had 12"+ from both of the storms in Silver Spring.

[osfan24]

  On 12/20/2019 at 5:40 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

There were 3 major NESIS storms during the period.  

1. 
2. 
3. 

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Where is the "salivate" emoji?