December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^thats certainly been true for the EPS in the last 8 weeks. GEFS has sniffed it out from range more accurately it seems. GEFS can rush it though.

Really, I honestly don't remember this.  Can you remember some specific instances?

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Really, I honestly don't remember this.  Can you remember some specific instances?

I can’t get plots for this while I’m on my phone, so it’s just memory, but I think GEFS picked up the early Novie EPO period and the secondary one in late Nov/early Dec earlier than Eps. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, I'm tryin hard to find encouraging data... 18z gefs spread looks really good here. Majority have the tpv in an ok spot and also a pna or epo ridge out west. There's some very cold solutions in this mix

In all seriousness, don't try too hard.  You were one of the first, if not the first, to start talking about the puke.  Nobody wanted to hear it then .  Keep on calling it like you see it.  No matter how it spooks us. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I can’t get plots for this while I’m on my phone, so it’s just memory, but I think GEFS picked up the early Novie EPO period and the secondary one in late Nov/early Dec earlier than Eps. 

Well perhaps there is a small glimmer of hope then.

[Weather Will]

I may misinterpret model runs but not intentionally.  Christmas Day a touch milder on the GFS, but closer to 40 than 60.  

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

In all seriousness, don't try too hard.  You were one of the first, if not the first, to start talking about the puke.  Nobody wanted to hear it then .  Keep on calling it like you see it.  No matter how it spooks us. 

Actually he and Chill were sniffing out the not so good look.  Glad to see Bob already sniffing the way out.  I know next week looks less than fun, but looking at the tellies, I just dont feel it will be horrible.  Will it snow, maybe not, but the only thing worse than no snow, is warm and no snow.

I think that by this weekend, and if one believes tellies/MJO, that the light in the distance may be getting brighter....or maybe it is just the longer daylight that starts this weekend.  

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I can’t get plots for this while I’m on my phone, so it’s just memory, but I think GEFS picked up the early Novie EPO period and the secondary one in late Nov/early Dec earlier than Eps. 

They also picked up on the cold shot this week first. Not saying I think they will be right in the long term, but it's not like they have bowed down to the eps. They have won their fair share of battles. 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I may misinterpret model runs but not intentionally.  Christmas Day a touch milder on the GFS, but closer to 40 than 60.  

Can i share this in my home subforum?  Its as though someone tilted the board and most fell off the ledge already.  Man its gonna be a LONG winter.

This really is acceptable if verified.  Looks like we see saw (if one believes ENS guidance), but then potentially the road to the promise land may be looking better.  

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Because that model sucks and is worse than the GooFus and GGEM

I was reading a book about the models yesterday and a I was thinking why on earth does the U.S. Navy feel the need to continue to maintain the NAVGEM when an apprently superior model is already produced by the US Govt and is available for free?  Is there some special use that the NAVGEM is particularly good for?

[Snowchaser]

 

Just now, cbmclean said:

I was reading a book about the models yesterday and a I was thinking why on earth does the U.S. Navy feel the need to continue to maintain the NAVGEM when an apprently superior model is already produced by the US Govt and is available for free?  Is there some special use that the NAVGEM is particularly good for?

hurricanes. 

[frostbite_falls]

40’s for Christmas is tolerable...just never want a repeat of 2015.  I had honeybees on my bird feeder Christmas morning.

[BristowWx]

Just now, frostbite_falls said:

40’s for Christmas is tolerable...just never want a repeat of 2015.  I had honeybees on my bird feeder Christmas morning.

I wonder what the sky conditions are?  Obviously some CAD there.  Is it a cloudy 40 or sunny 40? 

[frostbite_falls]

Afraid I’m not following your question bud.

[BristowWx]

Just now, frostbite_falls said:

Afraid I’m not following your question bud.

Sunny 43, at my house feels like 60...clouds and East wind 43 feels like 43. Probably not easily discernible from the model run.  More curiosity on my part. 

[griteater]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, I'm tryin hard to find encouraging data... 18z gefs spread looks really good here. Majority have the tpv in an ok spot and also a pna or epo ridge out west. There's some very cold solutions in this mix

Bob - if you need more members to scour thru, you can get all 20 of them here, ha - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_18z/ensloopwide.html

[frostbite_falls]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Sunny 43, at my house feels like 60...clouds and East wind 43 feels like 43. Probably not easily discernible from the model run.  More curiosity on my part. 

I was commenting on Weather Will’s post regarding the potential for 40’s this Christmas, and that that would be tolerable compared to what we had on Christmas 2015...I don’t have record of the temps, but as I recall it was approaching 70.

[BristowWx]

Just now, frostbite_falls said:

I was commenting on Weather Will’s post regarding the potential for 40’s this Christmas, and that that would be tolerable compared to what we had on Christmas 2015...I don’t have record of the temps, but as I recall it was approaching 70.

Temps as depicted are spot average I believe for the forum for Dec 25th. The previous day is above but still not too bad. Silver lining.  70s would be less than perfect. 

[PhineasC]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I was reading a book about the models yesterday and a I was thinking why on earth does the U.S. Navy feel the need to continue to maintain the NAVGEM when an apprently superior model is already produced by the US Govt and is available for free?  Is there some special use that the NAVGEM is particularly good for?

Apparently it is superior for weather over the ocean as well as things such as sea state/wave height. I have also been told it sucks at that as well, so go figure.

[Ji]

Gefs looks good...euro still nothing to get excited about

[Weather Will]

Sure.  Looks like mid 40s for Christmas at this time.  View it as perfect weather to see family and friends.

[Weather Will]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Looks like mid 40s for Christmas at this time.  View it as perfect weather to see family and friends.  

 

[BristowWx]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Sure.  Looks like mid 40s for Christmas at this time.  View it as perfect weather to see family and friends.

6z GFS looks less optimistic about these temps.  looks like a GLL messes things up.  closer to 60 than 40 on that run. 

[poolz1]

Battle lines are drawn between the GEFS and EPS.  GEFS doubles down on a pretty good pattern and EPS doubles down on its anti -EPO stance.  Probably a good time to step away for a few days and enjoy the holiday season....Not going to happen but its a good time to do it. lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

@frd

Thought this SPV chart was worth posting. Clearly shows the vortex getting pressured and the repeated inability to remain as a solid anchored core. One would surmise these looks are having an impact down at the trop level but that correlative reasoning is above my pay grade.

[mappy]

hey guys, i know things are looking hot hot hot for next week and people are on edge, but can we pleeeaase try and have some of these sidebar convos in banter? they open up doors to tangents that take the whole discussion off track. 

[frd]

31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thought this SPV chart was worth posting. Clearly shows the vortex getting pressured and the repeated inability to remain as a solid anchored core. One would surmise these looks are having an impact down at the trop level but that correlative reasoning is above my pay grade.

This period has shown interest. The vortex continues to get pressured,  zonal winds are forecast to decrease as well , No SSWE on the table,  more so the vortex displacements/elongations. 

IMHO still feel the key to getting sustained cold and snow threats is going to be the improvements in the Pac. As psu alluded to we don't require a stellar Pac later in the season, but we do need deep cold air sources and help from the NAO domain.  If the Pac will not cooperate we will indeed need the - NAO domain to deliver. 

I like to see some really cold air build up in  Canada and an improvement in storm tracks allowing us the potential for over running events.   

Last winter if you recall the storm tracks many times were cutters and inland runner. Let  us see if we can reshuffle the cards after the warm up . 

 

[LurkerBoy]

If a back door cold front were to occur, when would it start showing on the models?

[WxUSAF]

GEFS and Eps diverge significantly after D10 as has been said, but they’re very similar at D10. One subtle difference between them at D10 is the one that loads a good pattern for us on the GEFS and bad on the Eps. On the Eps at D10, the TPV is stronger and slightly more NW (poleward) relative to the GEFS. GEFS has the TPV a bit weaker and then moves it southward over Hudson Bay after D10. Eps keeps it at high latitudes and leaning toward Alaska. The tropical forcing and the wave 2 hit on the strat vortex peaking around Xmas suggest an evolution like to GEFS should happen eventually, but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s after the new year and not a few days before like the GEFS has.

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS and Eps diverge significantly after D10 as has been said, but they’re very similar at D10. One subtle difference between them at D10 is the one that loads a good pattern for us on the GEFS and bad on the Eps. On the Eps at D10, the TPV is stronger and slightly more NW (poleward) relative to the GEFS. GEFS has the TPV a bit weaker and then moves it southward over Hudson Bay after D10. Eps keeps it at high latitudes and leaning toward Alaska. The tropical forcing and the wave 2 hit on the strat vortex peaking around Xmas suggest an evolution like to GEFS should happen eventually, but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s after the new year and not a few days before like the GEFS has.

Yea, pretty big war setting up. I'm not just being a weenie by saying this but I do believe the GEFS might have it right. There's increasing agreement with a TPV displacement SE into the hudson/quebec area. Check out the member spread on the 6z gefs.... a whole lot of solutions that would imply sig cold overhead or nearby. 

 

Looks pretty damn good right and not just some random solutions. Supports the current CFS weekly & monthly guidance.  Pretty good consensus here and the evolution makes complete sense. Maybe it's too fast but imho I believe we're heading in this direction in early Jan. If the GEFS has the timing right then the EPS will start caving here shortly. 

ETA: here's the current CFS week 3 mean. Looks just like many of the solutions in the 6z gefs suite. CFS says the pattern is here to stay for all of Jan. It's not perfect or a classic big storm pattern but it's no doubt very workable and should provide chances. 

[WxUSAF]

Bob, I agree that I think we'll get there eventually.  Whether it's on Dec 29 like the GEFS thinks, some compromise of Jan 3rd-ish, or probably Jan 7 or after as EPS might suggest (via extrapolation), I don't know.  I'd probably chicken out and lean toward a compromise of the first few days of January if I had to pick.  

One thing I came across in reading this morning is that there's a pretty huge snow cover deficit in Eastern Europe and western Russia.  Always a bit of chicken-and-the-egg situation, but that might help bolster the Scandanavian ridging that keeps reloading the east -NAO and occasionally west -NAO and can be seen clearly on your CFS map above.