Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: OP runs that are weenie runs past 300 hours with the 384 hour fantasy blizzard don't normally work out either....so there's that. Remember the late 2017 30-hour blizzard that popped up in fantasy range? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I just looked at the latest 10 day EURO. Not white, but not a torch either. Highs on Christmas in the upper 30s this run, not 60. Interesting. It looked like some semblance of a back door front on the GFS for the 25th so was wondering about the Euro temps. Many thanks! Still can have a fire pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 i see nothing to get excited about.....our shutout pattern looks to be about 2 weeks and then there is no guarantee of it even being that short. It will be like chasing a mirage. Still..at least we had a few events in December to get me to 1 inch but as usual, we will finished Dec below normal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: i see nothing to get excited about.....our shutout pattern looks to be about 2 weeks and then there is no guarantee of it even being that short. It will be like chasing a mirage. Still..at least we had a few events in December to get me to 1 inch but as usual, we will finished Dec below normal snow. Thankfully winter hasn’t even started yet. I’ll turn to the doom and gloom this Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Thankfully winter hasn’t even started yet. I’ll turn to the doom and gloom this Saturday. Met winter has 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Weenier run alert! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Weenier run alert! Is this the possible backdoor? Also isn’t 6z nighttime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Is this the possible backdoor? Also isn’t 6z nighttime? That’s the storm this weekend. He hadn’t given up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s the storm this weekend. He hadn’t given up yet. i remember the Feb 2006 big snowstorm. The Euro and GFS showed it 7-8 days out and lost it...and then the JMA sniffed out 3 days out and we thought it was full of bunk till the euro ad GFS then agreed on their next run. But we dont see stuff like that happen much anymore. Now once models lose it....its pretty much a lost cause 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: i see nothing to get excited about.....our shutout pattern looks to be about 2 weeks and then there is no guarantee of it even being that short. It will be like chasing a mirage. Still..at least we had a few events in December to get me to 1 inch but as usual, we will finished Dec below normal snow. Yea, I don't see anything that leads me to believe a good winter pattern is on the way within the next 2 weeks and who knows what the "improved pattern" will look like whenever it gets here. 12z eps is pretty bad. One of the worst runs yet lately. Time to put all our chips on the GEFS. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I don't see anything that leads me to believe a good winter pattern is on the way within the next 2 weeks and who knows what the "improved pattern" will look like whenever it gets here. 12z eps is pretty bad. One of the worst runs yet lately. Time to put all our chips on the GEFS. What’s it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: What’s it show? Nothing good. Trough west ridge east and no sign of an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 60 on Xmas still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nothing good. Trough west ridge east and no sign of an end. Disappointing run. Good thing we get brand new looks every 6-12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 35 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: What’s it show? +EPO, trough in west-PNA....+AO and +NAO...other than that...its workable 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Nothing good. Trough west ridge east and no sign of an end. I propose the bias of both models in regards to the ensuing pattern change. The GEFS rushing things while the EPS taking too long. Ninja by WxUSAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Disappointing run. Good thing we get brand new looks every 6-12 hours. In regards to the EPS we have seen it miss the -EPO previously this Fall. I recall one such event. Different ballgame this go around, but Webb states the EPS does not have a good track record with seeing the early signs of a -EPO event at times. Read that over at 33. But, BAMWX has also brought this up previously as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 For once it would be nice for the CFSv2 to verify. Analog-wise this forecast does have some support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: 60 on Xmas still? I’m not trying to be a smart ass, but do you look at the model runs on your own? Here’s a good site to see the gfs highs and lows for the next 16 days. BWI’ code is KBWI. Asheville’s code is KAVL. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kbwi 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 hours ago, frd said: I propose the bias of both models in regards to the ensuing pattern change. The GEFS rushing things while the EPS taking too long. Ninja by WxUSAF Both have internal consistency with their depiction of tropical forcing. The good news is even if the euro is right wrt an emergence of mjo forcing in phase 6, it would only be a little behind the gefs. It’s not like it’s emerging into phase 3! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just op run I know but that is some spiked cold end of Dec/early Jan. Nice to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Just op run I know but that is some spiked cold end of Dec/early Jan. Nice to see it. Yea, check out the iceland ridge and what it does to the tpv. Then check the 18z gefs and it shows the same thing. 12z gefs also had the iceland ridge. Imho- that's the key feature to watch. Pop a nasty ridge near iceland and force the tpv into Quebec. If it doesn't snow at least the ponds will freeze and I can skate 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 NAVGEM is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 This is pretty sweet. Split flow, 50/50, confluence, blocking, and a little ridging in the deep south to send a massive slug of overrunning into arctic CAD. @Ji a blend of PD2 and Feb 5 09 setup 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is pretty sweet. Split flow, 50/50, confluence, blocking, and a little ridging in the deep south to send a massive slug of overrunning into arctic CAD. Snow that hangs around a bit would be cool! Also, an interesting look - like a 1960s-ish which @psuhoffman posted a while back. In those blocking winters of the 1960s winters really ramp up after the 1 st of the year. Plus, the look you posted Bob tends to fit the blocking signature in the Atlantic you find in some of the low solar min periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Regarding the - EPO once more ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 ^thats certainly been true for the EPS in the last 8 weeks. GEFS has sniffed it out from range more accurately it seems. GEFS can rush it though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2019 Author Share Posted December 18, 2019 Man, I'm tryin hard to find encouraging data... 18z gefs spread looks really good here. Majority have the tpv in an ok spot and also a pna or epo ridge out west. There's some very cold solutions in this mix 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I don't see anything that leads me to believe a good winter pattern is on the way within the next 2 weeks and who knows what the "improved pattern" will look like whenever it gets here. 12z eps is pretty bad. One of the worst runs yet lately. Time to put all our chips on the GEFS. EPS certainly sniffed out the looming funk earlier so I hate to have to root against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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