Scraff Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 This is definitely a nice trend from 12z to 18z. I’ll keep one and only one eye on it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Two schools of thought..there’s room for improvement...it’s fools gold to even track it... That piece of NS energy makes it a tad more interesting. Surface and 850s are colder and the trough is more neutral instead of positively tilted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Two schools of thought..there’s room for improvement...it’s fools gold to even track it... Interesting enough changes at 120 for sure -- let's see if there's more support from other models. And who are we kidding, what else is there to track? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 hours ago, MountainGeek said: Interesting enough changes at 120 for sure -- let's see if there's more support from other models. And who are we kidding, what else is there to track? It was easy enough to dismiss the CMC but now the GFS is showing a very similar evolution. Have to see if it sticks for a few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 We always talk about things popping up in the medium range... Well hopefully this will be a good example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 GFS/FV3 always finds a way to give us a nugget of hope. Fools gold I say - But hey - here is what it says if it were 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS/FV3 always finds a way to give us a nugget of hope. Fools gold I say - But hey - here is what it says if it were 10:1 Don’t forget to show everyone the CMC hahah. Fun tracking ahead boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 meh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 One of these 50/50 lows will break the mold I would think. It's the most stable feature on ops and ens. With that feature maybe we can get a trackable event during 8-12 days. I know others have mentioned this timeframe. Stick a stubborn high in se Can long enough in prime climo....even if its a meh pattern overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: meh I see two beauties haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: One of these 50/50 lows will break the mold I would think. It's the most stable feature on ops and ens. With that feature maybe we can get a trackable event during 8-12 days. I know others have mentioned this timeframe. Stick a stubborn high in se Can long enough in prime climo....even if its a meh pattern overall. It does seem lows are parading through the 50/50 region this season so far. I’m with you...keep that up in the heart of winter and something will break our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I see two beauties haha I also see plenty with some snow ...7 not including the pretty ones..some snow is nice....any snow really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Weekend storm... 18z Eps has enough members that make a close approach and a few that are hits to keep me interested another day . Since HH only goes out to 144 hr probably a few more close ones in future frames looking at 6hr precip panels. How close? Like EZF close or RIC close? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Many southern mid Atlantic and yes qpf gets into NC and Va with decent cluster of members. And as I mentioned at the end of the run - 144 there are a few lows that are still advancing The door is still ajar lol Thanks brother. Glad you did well today. Hope you got to Jebwalk in a t-shirt. I tried that once...not recommended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 Some decent trends in the long range. Epo ridge gaining traction and now both the eps and gefs are trending towards lower heights in the east and 50/50 region. If the northern stream starts trying to dig down into eastern canada it could potentially offset the terrible pacific. There are hints of colder weather sliding through while the san diego troughs keep digging. This is a pretty good mean h5 panel. If it's right our chances for winter wx are avg or even above avg. If we can see the way out and it holds in time it will make the next 10-15 days much more bearable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertRath Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some decent trends in the long range. Epo ridge gaining traction and now both the eps and gefs are trending towards lower heights in the east and 50/50 region. If the northern stream starts trying to dig down into eastern canada it could potentially offset the terrible pacific. There are hints of colder weather sliding through while the san diego troughs keep digging. This is a pretty good mean h5 panel. If it's right our chances for winter wx are avg or even above avg. If we can see the way out and it holds in time it will make the next 10-15 days much more bearable. Do you think the pattern for the next 2 weeks is a lock? Is there anything out there that makes you think things could be modeled wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some decent trends in the long range. Epo ridge gaining traction and now both the eps and gefs are trending towards lower heights in the east and 50/50 region. If the northern stream starts trying to dig down into eastern canada it could potentially offset the terrible pacific. There are hints of colder weather sliding through while the san diego troughs keep digging. This is a pretty good mean h5 panel. If it's right our chances for winter wx are avg or even above avg. If we can see the way out and it holds in time it will make the next 10-15 days much more bearable. Looks like signs of a split flow returning off the West Coast. Love that look on a means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, RobertRath said: Do you think the pattern for the next 2 weeks is a lock? Is there anything out there that makes you think things could be modeled wrong? It's never a lock of course but the next 10 days don't look good and there's universal agreement. The eps first picked up on the pac flood and never wavered and now everything agrees so there's well above normal confidence imho. The way out is much muddier and nothing is a lock there at all. At least we're seeing signs of improvement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some decent trends in the long range. Epo ridge gaining traction and now both the eps and gefs are trending towards lower heights in the east and 50/50 region. If the northern stream starts trying to dig down into eastern canada it could potentially offset the terrible pacific. There are hints of colder weather sliding through while the san diego troughs keep digging. This is a pretty good mean h5 panel. If it's right our chances for winter wx are avg or even above avg. If we can see the way out and it holds in time it will make the next 10-15 days much more bearable. Perhaps we have hit rock bottom and can begin the long climb out of the abyss (in terms of modeling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What happened? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 what the gfs and euro show for next week's storm is meteorologically impossible. it will definitely come north. by this time Wednesday we will be looking at warning criteria event 2 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Lol UKIE at 144... what a grinch look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 The black line is the current forecasted track. Which is extremely unusual.... It’s not looking good boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Lot of overnight banter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 35 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: The black line is the current forecasted track. Which is extremely unusual.... It’s not looking good boys yah like I said.. nmp (not meteorologically possible) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 0z EPS at the end of the run looks pretty decent. A workable pattern with a split flow and probably normal temps for the east. 0z GEFS is similar but has a deeper western US/EPac trough and hangs onto a weak EC ridge. Looks good up top though, NA in particular. Both have colder air building into the western half of Canada courtesy of the EPO ridge. It's a waiting/monitoring game now to see how long it takes to get some of that cold delivered to the eastern US. Verbatim, the EPS look would probably put us back in the game a bit sooner. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, PDIII said: yah like I said.. nmp (not meteorologically possible) Look at the height lines in front of it. Not only is it possible, it would be impossible for that low to go anywhere else. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Look at the height lines in front of it. Not only is it possible, it would be impossible for that low to go anywhere else. Would have said the same! If models are right, this has been the forecasted track consistently. Something unforeseen would need to disrupt this look to have it happen any other way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Would have said the same! If models are right, this has been the forecasted track consistently. Something unforeseen would need to disrupt this look to have it happen any other way! Only thing that could bring that N is if the cutoff slowed down and stalled long enough before being well East of FL so that a different piece of upstream energy could pick it up. But with the ridge at h5 separating the jets that is unlikely as well. And even if that happened, it probably would be a warmish system anyway unless it pulled a Jan 25, 2000. This one appears DOA unfortunately with too much going against it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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