frd Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the 0z EPS for the same general timeframe. Polar opposites on what's going on in the EPO region. Of course I'm rooting like F the GEFS is right but the EPS hasn't wavered in days with the hostile EPac. If the EPS is going to flip to the GEFS it will be soon in my opinion. It has already has once this cold season and getting closer to the under 10 days, so maybe today or even tomorrow it flips. We shall see. Not holding my breathe but anything is possible. If it were not for the dramatic changes so far this season with modeling days 11 to 15 I wouldn't even bring it up, but I believe there is some merit to the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the 0z EPS for the same general timeframe. Polar opposites on what's going on in the EPO region. Of course I'm rooting like F the GEFS is right but the EPS hasn't wavered in days with the hostile EPac. I am NOT disagreeing with you. I am favoring that progression. I agree with you totally. I should repeat that 10 more times so this next statement isn't misinterpreted... but the Euro/EPS did have one run yesterday where it caved to the GFS before quickly reverting. It still didn't really support a storm because it was significantly weaker with the energy ejecting from the trough in the PAC and so there simply was no storm in the southern stream, but it was very GFS like on the progression of the TPV in Canada and the resulting pattern over the CONUS. But it was just one run and it then reverted back. That said...the fact that it had that one hiccup means the GFS isnt totally off on a crazy lunatic tangent...the possibility is there and the euro sees it, both in a few divergent members and one one run where the majority saw it that way. So I guess I am saying there is a chance...but I would HIGHLY favor the progression the euro and most other guidance has been insistent on with the majority. The vast preponderance of evidence is on that side. But I don't take anything for granted in this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agree. GEFS looks pretty solid down the line. Most importantly it pops a -EPO ridge d10-15 so the cold factory can get back to work. Do we believe it though? I'm skeptical AF that we end up here in under 2 weeks: I agree the GFS is rushing it. I do think there is a good chance that is where we are heading. The things I am seeing right now look more like the precursors to some of the better analogs I looked at back in the fall...not the worse ones. I think that might be what we are seeing come January 10th...GFS is just rushing things as usual. We've seen that before....many times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: If the EPS is going to flip to the GEFS it will be soon in my opinion. It has already has once this cold season and getting closer to the under 10 days, so maybe today or even tomorrow it flips. We shall see. Not holding my breathe but anything is possible. If it were not for the dramatic changes so far this season with modeling days 11 to 15 I wouldn't even bring it up, but I believe there is some merit to the possibility. There is definitely some merit to the idea so I'm not saying the GEFS is flat wrong. However, we've been caught in a bad pac rut many times over the years. The vast majority of times it takes longer than expected to get out of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The cmc has like 5 different surface low centers off the coast on the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There is definitely some merit to the idea so I'm not saying the GEFS is flat wrong. However, we've been caught in a bad pac rut many times over the years. The vast majority of times it takes longer than expected to get out of it. Yes, totally agree. And @psuhoffman maybe the GEFS is rushing things. We shall know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Amped said: The cmc has like 5 different surface low centers off the coast on the 22nd. And one big HP center quickly pulling away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Amped said: The cmc has like 5 different surface low centers off the coast on the 22nd. Is the storm occluded? That is not an uncommon occurrence once a system occludes to have mini vortices, sometimes centered on convection, pinwheeling around within the broader circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, frd said: Yes, totally agree. And @psuhoffman maybe the GEFS is rushing things. We shall know soon enough. If that is where we are going... I don't mind waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 14 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Are temps torched, or is it just too warm to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Euro with a baby bump south with the warm front/waa 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro with a baby bump south with the warm front/waa Was gonna say seems pretty consistent with prior run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Somebody start a thread for monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Somebody start a thread for monday A cold rain thread? Looks like an i70 and North threat tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Somebody start a thread for monday Go for it. Call it the Baby Bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: A cold rain thread? Looks like an i70 and North threat tbh That counts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Bit more confluence and actually it never gets above freezing north of i70 ...looks colder then the Gfs. Good bit of zrain as well verbatim Several hours of snow followed by some ice. Nice improvement over 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Well, Euro says what storm? (22nd) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 @Bob Chill The Pac has muted the NAO block and warmth is really over- taking the country later in the period. Awesome pattern cancel. Certainly seems we are going to need time to recover as the Pac looks not so good. . However, I reserve the right to change my opinion tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, Euro says what storm? (22nd) Euro is a legit torch towards the end. CMC/GFS would be the same if the phantom storm wasn't there. If it's going to happen then lets just get it out of the way sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is a legit torch towards the end. CMC/GFS would be the same if the phantom storm wasn't there. If it's going to happen then lets just get it out of the way sooner rather than later. Isn’t it always a torch towards the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: @Bob Chill The Pac has muted the NAO block and warmth is really over- taking the country later in the period. Awesome pattern cancel. Certainly seems we are going to need time to recover as the Pac looks not so good. . However, I reserve the right to change my opinion tomorrow. I'm not sure there's a way to avoid a significant Pac air intrusion at this point. As the days go by the signal keeps getting stronger. First it showed up on ens d10-15 and now we're starting to see ops agree inside of d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not sure there's a way to avoid a significant Pac air intrusion at this point. As the days go by the signal keeps getting stronger. First it showed up on ens d10-15 and now we're starting to see ops agree inside of d10. So are you punting December? Crazy how we get a nice looking AO/NAO combo then the Pac craps the bed and wastes it. Hopefully that AO/NAO tanking is a background state developing for JFM. Are the ens losing the Aleutian low and 50/50 looks as well down the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 31 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, Euro says what storm? (22nd) slight differences on how they handle the energy crashing into California. GFS takes it across and south of us. Euro cuts the upper low through Minnesota and to the south shore of Hudson Bay. Minor details. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is a legit torch towards the end. CMC/GFS would be the same if the phantom storm wasn't there. If it's going to happen then lets just get it out of the way sooner rather than later. Eps has a weak low off the coast. I guess it's a start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is a legit torch towards the end. CMC/GFS would be the same if the phantom storm wasn't there. If it's going to happen then lets just get it out of the way sooner rather than later. Mostly agree except that the hostile pac pattern is timing up perfectly with a great blocking period. I think the blocking will likely recycle again this winter and so I am not that bothered BUT...but it is frustrating that we have had a generally ok PAC for a month but just when the Atlantic gets right the pacific sh!ts the bed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Mostly agree except that the hostile pac pattern is timing up perfectly with a great blocking period. I think the blocking will likely recycle again this winter and so I am not that bothered BUT...but it is frustrating that we have had a generally ok PAC for a month but just when the Atlantic gets right the pacific sh!ts the bed. And again, why does it keep going bad in mid/late December every single year? Smh Can we just assume it'll do that every mid/late December from here on? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not sure there's a way to avoid a significant Pac air intrusion at this point. As the days go by the signal keeps getting stronger. First it showed up on ens d10-15 and now we're starting to see ops agree inside of d10. Not sure how relevant, and to what latitude this might be targeted to , ie. DC , Philly or even NYC., but I read that despite having a -AO in December, along with a -NAO the most important indice to have in your favor during December for increased snowfall odds is a +PNA. I am beginning to believe that. You don't need the +PNA as much in J, F and M The +PNA does seem more important in reality versus the -NAO/ Davis Straits block during December. Now for the records, a MECS in December in the Northern Mid Atlantic, yes, you need both. A lot of what I said here is from reading all the great posts and stats form Don S. Love his stuff ! So next time you see a Greenland block you still need to check the Pac. I know you know all this, LOL, but some folks may not understand the importance of the Pac , especially this early in the season and for our hood especially . Caveat mention here: as @psuhoffman stated, having this blocking in December may indeed be a positive sign for later in the season. Especially seeing the NAO blocking a couple times so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So are you punting December? Crazy how we get a nice looking AO/NAO combo then the Pac craps the bed and wastes it. Hopefully that AO/NAO tanking is a background state developing for JFM. Are the ens losing the Aleutian low and 50/50 looks as well down the road? Not punting the whole month. Just don't like what I see beginning in a week. It's not all that uncommon to fail during a -AO/NAO regime. December 2012 is a recent example of the Pac completely screwing up decent blocking. The blocking event on tap popped up rather abruptly and it's good to see. I know you know this but just because we get a -NAO going doesn't mean we instantly hit deep winter. If the -NAO hangs on for a month then there should be multiple chances down the line with above normal odds for a big event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Not punting the whole month. Just don't like what I see beginning in a week. It's not all that uncommon to fail during a -AO/NAO regime. December 2012 is a recent example of the Pac completely screwing up decent blocking. The blocking event on tap popped up rather abruptly and it's good to see. I know you know this but just because we get a -NAO going doesn't mean we instantly hit deep winter. If the -NAO hangs on for a month then there should be multiple chances down the line with above normal odds for a big event. So in a hostile PAC -NAO we are just muting what would be a real warm pattern into an AN one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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