Weather Will Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Looking at Monday, I have learned my lesson in totally discounting the NAM after the last storm. 12k says no frozen thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I guess everyone is looking past Monday and probably wise to do so but as long as it’s still in the future I guess we still monitor. ICON and gfs trends aren’t good though. Some frozen still over parts of the area but dwindling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I guess everyone is looking past Monday and probably wise to do so but as long as it’s still in the future I guess we still monitor. ICON and gfs trends aren’t good though. Some frozen still over parts of the area but dwindling. All we can do is wait and see if the warm front gets here fast enough before the cold runs away. It's still a viable minor event. The runs that count will be over the weekend as the leaf of WAA is better modeled. Down the line I'm not too enthused honestly. I see nothing to get excited about over the next 2 weeks. Not super hostile or a true shutout but overall (imo only) things don't look good and my expectations are very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All we can do is wait and see if the warm front gets here fast enough before the cold runs away. It's still a viable minor event. The runs that count will be over the weekend as the leaf of WAA is better modeled. Down the line I'm not too enthused honestly. I see nothing to get excited about over the next 2 weeks. Not super hostile or a true shutout but overall (imo only) things don't look good and my expectations are very low. I'm already past Monday. Looking ahead...GFS at 162..that sw out west is looking more sharp/amped up vs 6z. Not sure if that's good or bad attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm already past Monday. Looking ahead...GFS at 162..that sw out west is looking more sharp/amped up vs 6z. Not sure if that's good or bad attm The upper level pattern in the high latitudes is shifting the wrong direction on the gfs. If the 12z GFS brings that shortwave through here it's going to be rain. There's nothing to lock in any cold and mid latitude ridging will bring in the warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm already past Monday. Looking ahead...GFS at 162..that sw out west is looking more sharp/amped up vs 6z. Not sure if that's good or bad attm For me the bigger worry is that high over Quebec. Running away much faster in this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: The upper level pattern in the high latitudes is shifting the wrong direction on the gfs. If the 12z GFS brings that shortwave through here it's going to be rain. There's nothing to lock in any cold and mid latitude ridging will bring in the warmth. Yup..was just about to post. Upper level, especially up North is not going in the right direction. This run looks like a rainer. Might even cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: For me the bigger worry is that high over Quebec. Running away much faster in this run Yeah, it's not good. Good thing is, we know it's going to change a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's not good you didnt really expect.......never mind. Ill put it in banter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Yeah don’t think we are gonna like this run. Confluence to northeast is running away like it stole something. Looks like the pieces are trying to phase as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Yup..was just about to post. Upper level, especially up North is not going in the right direction. This run looks like a rainer. Might even cut The EPS has been showing a crappy mid latitude pattern leading into Christmas for many days in a row. With the crazy gfs runs it's easy to ignore it but it kept nagging me and I've been expecting some frustration during the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 New or at least stronger player in the ns looks to have hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: The EPS has been showing a crappy mid latitude pattern leading into Christmas for many days in a row. With the crazy gfs runs it's easy to ignore it but it kept nagging me and I've been expecting some frustration during the period. its almost easier to be in a shutout pattern than this pattern where we get teased and then shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: The EPS has been showing a crappy mid latitude pattern leading into Christmas for many days in a row. With the crazy gfs runs it's easy to ignore it but it kept nagging me and I've been expecting some frustration during the period. Position of the TPV in Canada has big implications. It moving west hurts in two ways. 50-50 isn’t as strong and therefore doesn’t hold cold air in, and it prevents ridging out west where we want it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 i guess this is why Greta believes in global warming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: New or at least stronger player in the ns looks to have hurt The problem is bigger than that. The GFS/GEFS kept insisting that the TPV would drop down and create confluence/cold source while the Euro/EPS has been showing the TPV getting squished like a marshmallow and pushed west while mid latitude ridging spikes in the east. For now, the euro/EPS idea looks favored. And if it's right then we're going to spend at least a week waiting for cold to build again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Down the line I'm not too enthused honestly. I see nothing to get excited about over the next 2 weeks. Not super hostile or a true shutout but overall (imo only) things don't look good and my expectations are very low. Bob, I was feeling better about the next 2 weeks yesterday and the day before. My downfall was actually thinking we break from the hostile Pac pattern. Well known is the fact the Pac jet has set records for blasting onshore here in the states, and even up into Alaska, ruins the ridge axis out West. The Pac jet, which has been a detriment for us in terms of snowfall since last winter, will continue to be be a killer for us until we see a reshuffle out in the far West Pac. If that does not happen real snow events are simply modeled in error. Have you also noticed there is nothing to anchor in the cold. Cold air not hanging tough. Even a perfect pattern ends in rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, frd said: Bob, I was feeling better about the next 2 weeks yesterday and the day before. My downfall was actually thinking we break from the hostile Pac pattern. Well known is the fact the Pac jet has set records for blasting onshore here in the states, and even up into Alaska, ruins the ridge axis out West. The Pac jet, which has been a detriment for us in terms of snowfall since last winter, will continue to be be a killer for us until we see a reshuffle out in the far West Pac. If that does not happen real snow events are simply modeled in error. Have you also noticed there is nothing to anchor in the cold. Cold air not hanging tough. Even a perfect pattern ends in rain. Trough axis right off the west coast and steady stream of shortwaves digging will do some damage. The EPS has been dead set on the idea for at least 8 runs in a row. It's not a long term disaster and far from abnormal. Just no fun and will take some time to recover if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 There is still a storm signal on the GFS for several runs as I click back several runs so will take that as a positive. Might be rain but it’s keeping things interesting. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: New or at least stronger player in the ns looks to have hurt Agreed. Thats pretty much the only dif I see. Knocks heights down just enough and shoves everything east just a hair...including our 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: ( Monday) Verbatim Gfs gets frozen in the area around 12z - bit quicker then 6z and keeps n+w areas frozen till around 21z . Definitely a prolonged period of mix depicted. Surface struggles to go above freezing till afternoon. 12z guidance shows a quicker onset and better qpf for I70 north. The problem is the WAA precip has been steadily moving north on all guidance over the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 12z guidance shows a quicker onset and better qpf for I70 north. The problem is the WAA precip has been steadily moving north on all guidance over the past few runs. 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Curious to see the 12z Euro since the 6z actually bumped a bit south with the waa. We could use a 50-75 shift south especially since a lot of these systems tends to send the waa snows north into PA the last minute. Never good being on the southern edge for measurable frozen. Plus it would get more of the forum into some action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The biggest difference wrt the 12z GFS dec 22 threat is that it suppressed the upper energy well south of the region creating a disconnect with the cold air source. If that upper energy traversed closer to our area it would likely have been a similar outcome to 6z. That wasn't a cold look by any means but just cold enough. But it doesn't matter as everything is trending towards the idea of retrograding the TPV west which pumps way too much ridging in the central CONUS which will likely end up squashing the system like the euro and ggem show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Good news is 10 days out you're more likely to see the exact opposite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 hmm except the ggem just took a big step towards the GFS...at least in terms of that energy out west ejecting and becoming a storm...its going to be a rain storm probably...but its there not squashed this run. Well... usually when the major globals are in disagreement some kind of compromise is what happens. In this case the compromise (at least right now as it appears) is heading towards the GFS being more correct about a stronger ejection of energy from the trough out west but the euro/ggem being more correct about the retrogression of the TPV and the ridging across the CONUS. The end result would be a storm...but a rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: hmm except the ggem just took a big step towards the GFS...at least in terms of that energy out west ejecting and becoming a storm...its going to be a rain storm probably...but its there not squashed this run. Well... usually when the major globals are in disagreement some kind of compromise is what happens. In this case the compromise (at least right now as it appears) is heading towards the GFS being more correct about a stronger ejection of energy from the trough out west but the euro/ggem being more correct about the retrogression of the TPV and the ridging across the CONUS. The end result would be a storm...but a rainstorm. I take solace in the fact that the GFS still has a storm on the 22nd and that it strengthens along the east coast . Maybe we can get a rain to snow situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest Gefs really maintaining the block thru Christmas and goes pretty ape with lower heights in the 50/50 . Real chilly look for the 25th verbatim. Agree. GEFS looks pretty solid down the line. Most importantly it pops a -EPO ridge d10-15 so the cold factory can get back to work. Do we believe it though? I'm skeptical AF that we end up here in under 2 weeks: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Here's the 0z EPS for the same general timeframe. Polar opposites on what's going on in the EPO region. Of course I'm rooting like F the GEFS is right but the EPS hasn't wavered in days with the hostile EPac. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie is also looking better with leading into the next threat. 50/50 is much further sw then the Gfs at hr 144 Someday all our dreams will come to be Someday in a world where the UKMET actually comes to be Maybe not in time for you and me But someday at Christmastime 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Are temps torched, or is it just too warm to snow? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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