Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Any staying power with that block? Maps not out yet on TT. Just curious Yea, AO/NAO looks good through the end of the GEFS. Pac is messy d10+ but overall there is no sign of a disaster. Seeing the EPO ridge building is really nice. Would keep any pac flood situation short lived. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, AO/NAO looks good through the end of the GEFS. Pac is messy d10+ but overall there is no sign of a disaster. Seeing the EPO ridge building is really nice. Would keep any pac flood situation short lived. Yea the gefs just accelerated the process of getting towards a good look. Cuts the pac trough under the ridge quicker. Caved to the euro there too. If the gefs is close to right here suppresses is a way bigger threat than a rainstorm around the 22nd. if we just get that pna ridge about 100 miles west that’s a classic HECS look actually. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 One thing is showing, the high latitudes are not averse to blocking this year. This will be the second nice NAO block and we’ve had 2 nice EPO blocks already this cold season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 There are only a few examples but winter months with a descending QBO were fairly blocky once below 5 or so. One reason I’ve not been overly concerned with the slow descent. As long as we got close to 0 by January I felt it was fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just to show how futile it is to look at an op that far out in range (even tho I am for kicks and giggles only), you gotta love the 6 closed LP contours off the coast. Take your pick. Again, resolution gets cut at this range but just funny to see. Can't make up its mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, AO/NAO looks good through the end of the GEFS. Pac is messy d10+ but overall there is no sign of a disaster. Seeing the EPO ridge building is really nice. Would keep any pac flood situation short lived. Prior to this time frame with have this event unfolding below, note the vortex taking on a peanut shape (mentioned by Hugo a few days ago ) , not really a true split , as the depiction is at 50 mb, however ,as noted by HM, very important and not so usual. Cool things are a happening ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 IF the GEFS and EPS are correct in the 12-15 it sure looks like things are primed. Jet is getting ready to cut under the HL blocking and connect to the ATL trough. Maybe a very classic ATL look in toward the end of the month? All speculation of course based on LR ens...so there's that. Not that things are boring right now but man if we can get a progression like that this place will be rocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One thing is showing, the high latitudes are not averse to blocking this year. This will be the second nice NAO block and we’ve had 2 nice EPO blocks already this cold season. Very nino-like this year. The entire seasonal progression since early Nov reminds me of a mod nino. If the current blocking episode is a pre-cursor to the rest of winter then we're going to get a couple decent events by default. It's entirely possible that the current blocking episode on tap has longer term implications. Very common for a strong -AO to last 30-60 days. We haven't had one hit in December for 10 years so it seems like it's impossible but the atmosphere never gives a crap about the past. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Yeah, Euro isn't great for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Euro moving toward GFS in the mid-range. More ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Am I looking at the wrong model? Euro seems like exactly where we want it if we want some front end frozen. A little faster and heavier with the initial precip and we will be good for our first real event. Y’all didn’t think we were getting an all snow event did you? EURO is never right when it shows snow lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: euro look horrible for Monday. We cant catch a break. 0 for everything could you at least learn how to format correctly. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, Euro isn't great for Monday. But we were never in the game for anything more than a thump o front end mix, right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Am I looking at the wrong model? Euro seems like exactly where we want it if we want some front end frozen. A little faster and heavier with the initial precip and we will be good for our first real event. Y’all didn’t think we were getting an all snow event did you? EURO is never right when it shows snow lol. That's all this event is. Scoring on the leading warm front before rain. Euro/GFS/CMC/ICON all close enough to keep it interesting but the potential isn't very exciting. I'm not nearly as interested in it as I was 2-3 days ago. 2 things that have consistently trended poorly as leads shorten are depth of cold and confluence. When this event first showed up there was a strong CAD signal in front of it. That's basically completely evaporated. Track of shortwaves has consistently shifted north during the same time frame as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Huge changes in the LR on the Euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Get ready, getting closer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 OMG, this is crazy. Incredible 6 hour temp drops just for the fun of it ! My hood goes from 46 to 12 in 6 hours, a 34 degree drop, LOL Some locals experience even greater drops . CLICK FOR ANIMATION 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: OMG, this is crazy. Incredible 6 hour temp drops just for the fun of it ! My hood goes from 46 to 12 in 6 hours, a 34 degree drop, LOL Some locals experience even greater drops . CLICK FOR ANIMATION We flash freeze into a tray of ice cubes if that verifies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 That Ian guy seems like a real goob 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: You and I have always said bring on the wet first and then let's see what happens. I've been happy to see the moisture train start back up a few weeks back after the dry stretch. if you're ok with 90% of that being rain like last year than i think that's an ok rationale to take, but i'd rather have cold/dry sprinkled with the occasional snowstorm so that things aren't getting washed away within several days. it feels more like winter that way. we average close to 15" of precip from nov thru march. if even half of that was snow we'd be a ski town. the problem is almost always due to cold air resulting from lower elevation/atlantic air and just generally not being at a high enough latitude. i always tell people to expect 2-3 decent storms per year and that's about it, generally speaking. we snow here, but like others have said we really need things to break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But we were never in the game for anything more than a thump o front end mix, right? Lol Where's the thump on the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Where's the thump on the 12z Euro? Give it a day. It will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Where's the thump on the 12z Euro? About 20 miles to the SW of your hood. Think it's possible that could shift north over the next 4 days? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, 87storms said: if you're ok with 90% of that being rain like last year than i think that's an ok rationale to take, but i'd rather have cold/dry sprinkled with the occasional snowstorm so that things aren't getting washed away within several days. it feels more like winter that way. we average close to 15" of precip from nov thru march. if even half of that was snow we'd be a ski town. the problem is almost always due to cold air resulting from lower elevation/atlantic air and just generally not being at a high enough latitude. i always tell people to expect 2-3 decent storms per year and that's about it, generally speaking. we snow here, but like others have said we really need things to break right. We average about 11.8 here for those months. We average about 35” of snow (generally). I can promise you that most of our below avg snow years are below avg precip years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: About 20 miles to the SW of your hood. Think it's possible that could shift north over the next 4 days? LOL. It’s possible it could shift to central New York. I like where it is. Maybe I’m the only one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL. It’s possible it could shift to central New York. I like where it is. Maybe I’m the only one though. I wouldn't mind 1-2" to make it wintry where I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I can promise you that most of our below avg snow years are below avg precip years. I don't have the time to research this right now, but I would be curious if that's true. I do know 97/98 would probably be one example where it is not true, but I wonder how strong the correlation has been over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL. It’s possible it could shift to central New York. I like where it is. Maybe I’m the only one though. Me too. I'm firmly in the 2.1 area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 The 12z EPS is BN from about 12/17 to the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: we have been in a great pattern for 6 weeks and we have a dusting to show for it. We all need to move banter please. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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