December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

I am rooting for snow, anyway I can get it, and as soon as it can possibly occur. There is no trading this storm for the next one. Trust me, y'all can root for whatever you want and it will have zero impact on the ultimate outcome.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I am rooting for snow, anyway I can get it, and as soon as it can possibly occur. There is no trading this storm for the next one. Trust me, y'all can root for whatever you want and it will have zero impact on the ultimate outcome.

 

^^^this

We take any chance we get as they come and sacrificing a good setup for something down the line....no thanks. 

[WxUSAF]

Don't know about snow vs. rain, but the EPS follows the trend of a shift southward.  Interestingly (disappointingly?), look at how the 850mb temps on the mean don't really budge in our area despite the track changes.  But the arctic air aloft has moved south in Canada clearly.  The 850mb warm front is pretty stagnant over the last few runs.  

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

^ The post above just worries me further. The euro looks like a sheared 98 pound weakling. I’d rather have a heavy rain than to sit hoping for meager precip. Much rather have a cutting bomb into a cold airmass and take some decent frozen and how the rain doesn’t wash it all away.

Edit: To clarify the arctic press that he mentioned I can envision sliding East and suppressing the whole system. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am rooting for snow, anyway I can get it, and as soon as it can possibly occur. There is no trading this storm for the next one. Trust me, y'all can root for whatever you want and it will have zero impact on the ultimate outcome.

 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don't know about snow vs. rain, but the EPS follows the trend of a shift southward.  Interestingly (disappointingly?), look at how the 850mb temps on the mean don't really budge in our area despite the track changes.  But the arctic air aloft has moved south in Canada clearly.  The 850mb warm front is pretty stagnant over the last few runs.  

 

 

 

It is better, but still an initial western track, coastal looks to form close to our latitude, and maybe being on the backside of the departing HP to our east has some influence in screwing up the mid levels..

[frd]

 

Interesting,  thought it was colder out West. ( courtesy bluewave )  

from bluewave:

<<<

The one given has been the big long range model cold bias across the CONUS in December so far.  The cold was limited to the Northeast instead of spread out across the CONUS. It looks like the mild Pacific split flow had a bigger influence than expected.

>> 

 

 

 

 

[87storms]

54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

^ The post above just worries me further. The euro looks like a sheared 98 pound weakling. I’d rather have a heavy rain than to sit hoping for meager precip. Much rather have a cutting bomb into a cold airmass and take some decent frozen and how the rain doesn’t wash it all away.

Edit: To clarify the arctic press that he mentioned I can envision sliding East and suppressing the whole system. 

i don't know that we need a wound up low.  seems like our overrunning events have been mostly over producers for the last year+.  not saying that'll pan out this time, but precip has not been an issue for a while now; cold air has.

[WVclimo]

59 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

^ The post above just worries me further. The euro looks like a sheared 98 pound weakling. I’d rather have a heavy rain than to sit hoping for meager precip. Much rather have a cutting bomb into a cold airmass and take some decent frozen and how the rain doesn’t wash it all away.

Edit: To clarify the arctic press that he mentioned I can envision sliding East and suppressing the whole system. 

Check out today's 12Z CMC.  Hopefully it's correct for the first time.

[frd]

I will be interested in seeing what transpires with storm tracks after 12/20,  and more so after any moderation period. 

Seems we have been locked into several storm tracks per Bluewave.  We all agree in December we really need an anomalous cold  air mass and a  very significant -NAO.  No wonder why everyone is so gun shy regarding a -NAO in winter, and that goes double for December. Every year since 2010 has featured a + NAO in December.    

I am hoping to a get a fundamentally different storm track in the weeks ahead, one that benefits the Northern Mid Atlantic. 

Bluewave made an interesting post earlier today which I include below ( His thoughts work for our area as well ) ie. we need a favored MJO state and help from the NAO domain.    : 

 

<<<

"We are going to need a strong and sustained -NAO drop at some point this winter to get a more active benchmark rapidly deepening storm track. These transient wave breaks can only do so much with the very active Pacific split flow pattern. We tend to do better with MJO related -NAO drops and start warming events. "

•  

 

"The dominant storm track continues to be cutter and hugger. All our major storms this month tracked through the Great Lakes or right across the area. The next 2 storms look to take the same type of track. It will be interesting to see if we can get the benchmark rapidly deepening storm track more active in JFM."
 

Dec 1-10

 

Next 2 storms

 

 

 

 

>>>>>>

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Check out today's 12Z CMC.  Hopefully it's correct for the first time.

That is very close to the Chill storm of 2012 (day after Christmas I believe)

[WVclimo]

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That is very close to the Chill storm of 2012 (day after Christmas I believe)

Yep.   Our last white Christmas here, as we still had some snow left from the 2" that fell early on Christmas Eve.  I picked up 5.7" from the 12/26 storm on 1.24" liquid.

 

[Chris78]

Theres some big hits from the  eps. I counted atleast 15 members that give a portion of the sub forum  4 " or more. Some north and some south. 

[CAPE]

EPS mean snowfall through mid next week isn't great, but a lot better than the GEFS.

[stormtracker]

Gfs ain’t budging. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Gfs ain’t budging. 

Yea it did. Went even further NW. 

[Maestrobjwa]

40 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That is very close to the Chill storm of 2012 (day after Christmas I believe)

Well, one thing we can bet on around here...it absolutely will not snow significantly (like more than a couple inches) the day after Christmas...nor the rest of the days until mid-January, lol It's a strange quirk, really...January 9th was the earliest--and that was the highly anomalous 1995/96 winter. But other wise? All others fell between Jan 14th and February 20th...So I never look for anything just after Christmas, or New Year's--always tends to fail the most during that period for whatever reason!

[jaydreb]

GFS going the wrong way on this one.  

[CAPE]

The PAC flood/warmth/torch "is there" on the EPS- Temps are an impressive 2-5 deg F above avg in our region from the 23rd to the 26th- the last few days of the run. FWIW. 

If correct, no it probably wont snow during that period. But no signs of anything crazy like mid 60s for Xmas at this point. 45-50? ok, its whatever if it happens.

And looking at h5 at the end of the 12z EPS , the pattern is improving, although it may take a few more days. My takeaway is we are looking at slightly above avg temps for a week if the EPS is correct, and if it is also correct with the advertised h5 look- rolling it forward- we would be in a good place by the New Year. Maybe sooner.

[Ji]

I am not impressesd with the new gfs as far as an op model so far

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I am not impressesd with the new gfs as far as an op model so far

It’s the only one that far NW.  either it’s a pioneer or pure carp

[jaydreb]

Pretty.  

 

[Ji]

It’s the only one that far NW.  either it’s a pioneer or pure carp

I mean it gave us 5 inches at 00z last night. Its constantly overdoing something. Fv3 was stubborn last year but always need up being wrong. The model is broken

[Ji]

Pretty.  
 

Euro shows a heatwave at the same time

[poolz1]

Agreed Loseto. This is our long track once blocking gets established.  

[jaydreb]

Just now, Ji said:

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s the only one that far NW.  either it’s a pioneer or pure carp

I mean it gave us 5 inches at 00z last night. Its constantly overdoing something. Fv3 was stubborn last year but always need up being wrong. The model is broken

Overdoing?

 

[Cobalt]

The GFS has been wildly consistent with showing a storm around that time. Only 10 days to screw it up >:)

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty.  
 
 

Euro shows a heatwave at the same time

Slight difference of opinion.

Beware the FV3 cold bias in the long range.

[Ji]

The GFS has been wildly consistent with showing a storm around that time. Only 10 days to screw it up >

Euro at day 10

[jaydreb]

No shortage of images for the digital snow thread from this FV3 run.