December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

^fringed

[cbmclean]

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You’ll like the GGEM today. You’re snowblowing while DC and south is raining. 

As a SE forum guy, I will gladly take cold rain next week it opens the door to the TPV Christmas week.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

^fringed

So that means the slow north trend is about to begin then

[MillvilleWx]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS made a big move towards a pretty sick west based -NAO in the medium range. If that's real then we can discuss a KU as it relaxes... lol

That is one of the most beautiful -NAO sigs I've seen in a long time. Sucks that it's 8 days away, but you never know....

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That is one of the most beautiful -NAO sigs I've seen in a long time. Sucks that it's 8 days away, but you never know....

Move that GOA low a few hundred miles westward and it would be time to pitch an 8-person tent

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Move that GOA low a few hundred miles westward and it would be time to pitch an 8-person tent

No kidding. Still a workable pattern for sure. Would like to see that ridge axis over Boise instead of Dodge City with that look. At this point, just seeing some indication of that is a net positive. Heck, it's inside 9 days. We usually don't see this kind of look until Day 12-15 last 3 years.  

[LP08]

GEFS is almost unanimous about sending the WAA north of us.  Let's revisit this panel at verification.  I count 2 "hits"

 

 

[PDIII]

When does the 120 and 144 hour images come out for the 12Z euro on tropical tidbits?

[yoda]

1 minute ago, PDIII said:

When does the 120 and 144 hour images come out for the 12Z euro on tropical tidbits?

Next 10 mins or so

[Bob Chill]

Euro def weaker/sheared/south from 0z

[PDIII]

120 loses the HP to our NE

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Next 10 mins or so

 

[NorthArlington101]

Snowing at DCA at 120 on the EURO

[LP08]

Euro quicker down south, and a little more strung out through 120.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Euro def weaker/sheared/south from 0z

Yup.  We were joking earlier but we might have to start worrying about suppression, lol

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Euro quicker down south, and a little more strung out through 120.

Goes to heavy rain after a meh front end light snowathon.  

The usually areas up north are in a nice snow still.

[NorthArlington101]

Flips to rain by 129. Basically snow TV for 9 hours.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  We were joking earlier but we might have to start worrying about suppression, lol

I like the euro progression a lot. Temp problems verbatim but that type of progression is perfect for a moderate event in these parts. I'm not worried about the mix stuff as shown. 12z has been good today. 

[Steve25]

Sounds similar to the CMC

[PDIII]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I like the euro progression a lot. Temp problems verbatim but that type of progression is perfect for a moderate event in these parts. I'm not worried about the mix stuff as shown. 12z has been good today. 

Nice!

[LP08]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Goes to heavy rain after a meh front end light snowathon.  

The usually areas up north are in a nice snow still.

Yeah.  meh-tacular.  Not sure what to root for to be honest anymore.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Goes to heavy rain after a meh front end light snowathon.  

The usually areas up north are in a nice snow still.

Yea, I don't think that's the most likely outcome with the track as shown. It's a very good look for these parts. I like it. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I like the euro progression a lot. Temp problems verbatim but that type of progression is perfect for a moderate event in these parts. I'm not worried about the mix stuff as shown. 12z has been good today. 

I'd pay good money (which for me is about $25 gift card to Walmart) to have that Low up north about 500 miles wester.  

[LP08]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I don't think that's the most likely outcome with the track as shown. It's a very good look for these parts. I like it. 

It's a very similar progression to the UKIE.  The ukie was just wetter when we are cold enough.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'd pay good money (which for me is about $25 gift card to Walmart) to have that Low up north about 500 miles wester.  

Gotta love the track tho. Nearly perfect. Just a touch more blocking and we're getting our first warning level event of the year. Weenie handbook says the front end thump will be juicier and quicker than shown. Best of all... only 5 days away...

[frd]

 

First I thought suppression, and then saw the temps, yuck ! But, it might work out like Bob said. 

Wish the entire time period was much colder honestly. 

Don't mean to be picky, and yes, it is still out there a bit, changes will happen. 

 

[frd]

 

Met John Homenuk  stated he feels the issues to a colder and more snowier solution is better timing, less Southwesterly flow initially,  and the elongation of the TPV in Central Canada needs to lessen.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Can someone post the progression via euro maps?

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gotta love the track tho. Nearly perfect. Just a touch more blocking and we're getting our first warning level event of the year. Weenie handbook says the front end thump will be juicier and quicker than shown. Best of all... only 5 days away...

I agree our chances of getting some snow from this have gone up today.  But I am not sure this progression is really what I want.  I am probably on my own here...but the only way to get snow from this day 5 wave is to get a weak sheared out mess that gets suppressed.  But if that happens...and all the guidance agrees on the great NAO blocking next week...but with that initial wave sheared and a non factor the TPV splits and a peice of it rotates east and out and another piece feeds into the western trough and with that setup we will torch just in time for xmas.  It won't be prolonged, the jet would cut under and by New Years we would be back in the game...but no mistake we would be torching xmas week.  Now with the GFS idea of a more phased system, the TPV remains more intact and pinwheels around to our north before exiting east whole...creating a monster 50/50 low to suppress the pacific flood plus not as much of it breaks off to feed into the pacific trough... the end result is a colder look leading into xmas and a storm threat with the next wave, and possible a bigger storm threat than this one.  Now...I know sacrificing some snow for a lower probability of snow later is usually a big no no...but given the implications for the holiday...who would rather sacrifice the chance of a 2-4 type event now knowing it comes along with the probability of a 60 degree xmas for a chance at a bigger storm and a cold look around xmas? 

[mappy]

54 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Yeah.  meh-tacular.  Not sure what to root for to be honest anymore.

a few more days of models runs will help. no reason anyone should be "mehing" a 5day threat at this point. come on now... 

[Bob Chill]

@psuhoffman

I don't disagree with your take on the bigger picture through the second half of the month. Unfortunately, I'm expecting some version of a pac flood in the conus during the week before Christmas. The EPS has been dead set on the idea for many runs in a row. GEFS shows how it can be avoided but I'm not thinking we'll be so lucky. For that reason alone, I'm rooting for snow of any way, shape, or form before a shutout period.