December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, frd said:

There were a few weather pros / weather event historians , etc. who mentioned several 1960s type analogs for later this month a while back.

Of course, one is  Uncle who liked 1966, I think the Christmas eve snowstorm.   

What seems to be working, but maybe not as cold, ( at least so far ) , is the PMM .  Back ion September severeweatherblog brought it up, and stated the correlation in December would be for a cold East and very active in terms of precip.  Seems to be working so far.  The correlation also calls for increased phasing of storms.   

Some of the best analogs to the current combo of QBO, ENSO, PDO, and AAM were in the 60s. But I tossed them because that period featured such a persistently -NAO that it’s dangerous imo to use those years to set expectations.  But if the NAO tanks all bets are off. 

[frd]

29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah we discussed this a few days ago. I never felt like we were heading towards a prolonged PAC flood. Been seeing indications of rising heights up top for a while now on the means. There has been some persistence now going well back into November with some of the key features(e.g. Aleutian low), and an overall propensity to keep things on the cold side. Looks generally cold and active going forward. If next week's event doesn't pan out, it may help to set things up for the period before Xmas.

More on the speculation side, but I wonder the role the current very low solar min and lack of sunspots are having on the pattern.

From what I read in a very low solar period,  the solar background slightly amplifies whatever the base state is. 

So, if there was a base state that favored increased colder risk and less warmth, you would verify slightly colder versus warmer. 

It sure seems that is way this month has gone so far. 

Space Weather states we have not reached the lowest point yet,  however, I know some experts use different data to decipher when they think the solar min has been achieved.   

 

 

 

 

 

[stormtracker]

Stormtracker Laws of Weather, Law 3: The Euro only caves to the gfs when it shows rain or a miss for us.  

[psuhoffman]

@showmethesnow about time... my coffee was getting cold waiting on my morning status briefing. 

 

[CAPE]

I just looked at the 0z Euro mean and members, and its not far off from being a decent event, esp for NW areas. Need a bit stronger block/50-50 low combo, and keep some separation between the TPV and the southern shortwave to keep it underneath. As it stands, the primary low tracks a bit too far north, and the favored area for all frozen is just to the north of our region.

[LP08]

I don't know much but if we keep getting these looks, it will eventually work out.  It's fun to toggle back to the runs from a few days ago for days 11-15 and then now when we are at day ten.  

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, frd said:

More on the speculation side, but I wonder the role the current very low solar min and lack of sunspots are having on the pattern.

From what I read in a very low solar period,  the solar background slightly amplifies whatever the base state is. 

So, if there was a base state that favored increased colder risk and less warmth, you would verify slightly colder versus warmer. 

It sure seems that is way this month has gone so far. 

Space Weather states we have not reached the lowest point yet,  however, I know some experts use different data to decipher when they think the solar min has been achieved.   

 

 

That stuff is above my pay grade, but I have read some technical papers discussing some of the correlations. Having a near solar min, QBO heading towards neutral(then presumably negative) as we move towards mid winter, and the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish, should all favor some persistence with HL blocking, esp  for late winter. Kind of a bonus that we are seeing the tendency for higher heights in the NAO domain and 50-50 low persistence early in winter.

[Chris78]

40 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Stormtracker Laws of Weather, Law 3: The Euro only caves to the gfs when it shows rain or a miss for us.  

Truth!

I was just thinking the same thing this morning. If the models were reversed the GFS would be trending towards the euro no doubt lol.

 

Edit- There is some really nice hits in the EPS. This appears to be our best shot so far for atleast a nice front end thump before a changeover.

[frd]

18 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I don't know much but if we keep getting these looks, it will eventually work out.  It's fun to toggle back to the runs from a few days ago for days 11-15 and then now when we are at day ten.

Granted this is way out there, but on this morning's  GEFS at hour 264 to hour 270 looks very interesting at 500.  This time period has my interest. 

After this period  ( Dec 20 th to Dec 23 rd )  I almost wonder if we take a step back and moderate , or if we continue on the colder side.  The several days leading up to Christmas look like they have potential. I have not been able to say that for about eight years. 

[LP08]

Just now, frd said:

Granted this is way out there, but on this morning's  GEFS at hour 264 to hour 270 looks very interesting at 500.  This time period has my interest. 

After this period  ( Dec 20 th to Dec 23 rd )  I almost wonder if we take a step back and moderate , or if we continue on the colder side.  The several days leading up to Christmas look like they have potential. I have not been able to say that for about eight years. 

To me, its the best look we have had so far (not saying much) but with the war relaxing and a -NAO/50/50 combo, its a good setup.  It's like this year is the exact opposite so far compared to last year.  We got teased in the 11-15 day of better patterns only for it to default back to the background for that winter.  It seems this year, we are having the good periods continue to keep us cool with chances while the troubling pattern keeps getting pushed back.

 

I am happy that I haven't had to look at the weeklies at all this year!  What a disaster they are/were.  Learned a lot of their reliability last year (almost zero).

[pasnownut]

Just now, frd said:

Granted this is way out there, but on this morning's  GEFS at hour 264 to hour 270 looks very interesting at 500.  This time period has my interest. 

After this period  ( Dec 20 th to Dec 23 rd )  I almost wonder if we take a step back and moderate , or if we continue on the colder side.  The several days leading up to Christmas look like they have potential. I have not been able to say that for about eight years. 

Boy wouldn't that make the spirits bright.....

Regarding low solar, if memory serves it the period just beyond that is when max benefit and I thought we just hit bottom a couple weeks back?  Maybe i read wrong but hoping Im right.  That stuff is way above my pay grade, but like you, i find it rather intriguing.  

[pasnownut]

Just now, LP08 said:

To me, its the best look we have had so far (not saying much) but with the war relaxing and a -NAO/50/50 combo, its a good setup.  It's like this year is the exact opposite so far compared to last year.  We got teased in the 11-15 day of better patterns only for it to default back to the background for that winter.  It seems this year, we are having the good periods continue to keep us cool with chances while the troubling pattern keeps getting pushed back.

 

I am happy that I haven't had to look at the weeklies at all this year!  What a disaster they are/were.  Learned a lot of their reliability last year (almost zero).

Saving lots of heartbreak.  Seems like this year so far, keeping things inside a 10 day window has brought some sanity back to the board.  Its unfortunate that we have to do that, but for now, may be the safest way to proceed.  It sure is fun to look way out and see great looking patterns, but when they dont materialize, its not worth the pain.  Better to be pleasantly surprised (like we currently are wrt next week - even if we miss - we still are close.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

May not seem like it, especially if you look at the surface and snowfall maps, but the Euro made a positive move at 500s on what I believe is key on next Mon/Tues possible storm. What we saw on the EPS could be nothing more then noise, but at least that noise is in a positive direction as well.

...

GEFS took a notable step back irt this threat window. Less spacing between the stj and the PV and almost a clear phase on the means. Mslp plots have not a single lp near the coast...clustering over the OV. Has the GFS ens family taken over the role of Dr No in recent times? 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Boy wouldn't that make the spirits bright.....

Regarding low solar, if memory serves it the period just beyond that is when max benefit and I thought we just hit bottom a couple weeks back?  Maybe i read wrong but hoping Im right.  That stuff is way above my pay grade, but like you, i find it rather intriguing.  

That makes sense. I think in the post above Space Weather thinks the min will be achieved in mid  2020.  Some say we are already there. 

The receptive base state reference I thought had to due with the current atmosphere. 

The period you mention of max benefit being  just beyond might be connected to a paper or two that states there is a lag effect possible - ocean current related/ SST etc.  

After a solar minimum it is thought the NAO domain might be more receptive to a negative state. I know Isotherm covers this.   If this is correct next winter's NAO might be more so negative. One paper even stated there might be a several year lag after the solar min regarding certain pattern drivers, one being the NAO again. 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS took a notable step back irt this threat window. Less spacing between the stj and the PV and almost a clear phase on the means. Mslp plots have not a single lp near the coast...clustering over the OV. Has the GFS ens family taken over the role of Dr No in recent times? 

And you know I am just fooling with you. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS took a notable step back irt this threat window. Less spacing between the stj and the PV and almost a clear phase on the means. Mslp plots have not a single lp near the coast...clustering over the OV. Has the GFS ens family taken over the role of Dr No in recent times? 

0z EPS indicates coastal development but takes a primary to our west. Probably a mix to rain deal, but as Showme pointed out, its not too far off from something more on the frozen side.

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z EPS indicates coastal development but takes a primary to our west. Probably a mix to rain deal, but as Showme pointed out, its not too far off from something more on the frozen side.

It probably wouldn't take much separation with the NAO trying to build-in to force things South. The ens spread between sliders and cutters verifies this. As many have alluded to, best case is a thump to meh scenario. The direct hit/in between look is unlikely.

Plenty of chances moving forward though. I feel like we have been tracking for well over a month already and it isnt mid December just yet. I know there isnt a whole lot to show for it but we are off to an early start and the recent years' Dec fail patterns are non existent. Give us chances....we will score. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS took a notable step back irt this threat window. Less spacing between the stj and the PV and almost a clear phase on the means. Mslp plots have not a single lp near the coast...clustering over the OV. Has the GFS ens family taken over the role of Dr No in recent times? 

Verification wins seemingly go to the model that torpedoes any storm chance. Interesting topic as to why the models so often show the solution you want and then back of versus the other way around.

[Buddy1987]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It probably wouldn't take much separation with the NAO trying to build-in to force things South. The ens spread between sliders and cutters verifies this. As many have alluded to, best case is a thump to meh scenario. The direct hit/in between look is unlikely.

Plenty of chances moving forward though. I feel like we have been tracking for well over a month already and it isnt mid December just yet. I know there isnt a whole lot to show for it but we are off to an early start and the recent years' Dec fail patterns are non existent. Give us chances....we will score. 

Anyone who would contemplate complaining about a front end thump would be off their rockers. I would be more than happy to get something that is of the frozen variety. Long way to go with all this but as many alluded to many positive signs both short medium and long term. 

[pasnownut]

27 minutes ago, frd said:

That makes sense. I think in the post above Space Weather thinks the min will be achieved in mid  2020.  Some say we are already there. 

The receptive base state reference I thought had to due with the current atmosphere. 

The period you mention of max benefit being  just beyond might be connected to a paper or two that states there is a lag effect possible - ocean current related/ SST etc.  

After a solar minimum it is thought the NAO domain might be more receptive to a negative state. I know Isotherm covers this.   If this is correct next winter's NAO might be more so negative. One paper even stated there might be a several year lag after the solar min regarding certain pattern drivers, one being the NAO again. 

Yep...Lag effect which is just beyond and depending on base state, can last for some time.  Not sure of the sensible correlation, but it beats playing with voodo dolls to get snow. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll take the Ukmet look for now for the early week storm ....if anything this is probably a se slider verbatim.  A bump nw at game time and we r on.

I know it has decent scores but I can’t remember a time when it was on its own showing a snowy solution (and it does that a lot) and was correct.  Obviously it has some support right now just making an observation. 

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know it has decent scores but I can’t remember a time when it was on its own showing a snowy solution (and it does that a lot) and was correct.  Obviously it has some support right now just making an observation. 

Same. Often seems off on its own. But at least by numbers, a euro-ukie blend solution is probably hard to beat at D5.

[WxUSAF]

30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Verification wins seemingly go to the model that torpedoes any storm chance. Interesting topic as to why the models so often show the solution you want and then back of versus the other way around.

I think that perception is mostly a combination of confirmation bias and the fact that even in snowy winters, most of our winter precip falls as rain.

[Bob Chill]

ICON stepped back quite a bit with the strength of next week's shortwave. Similar to the 0z CMC's version but even weaker. MUCH weaker than what the GFS is trying to do

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

ICON stepped back quite a bit with the strength of next week's shortwave. Similar to the 0z CMC's version but even weaker. MUCH weaker than what the GFS is trying to do

 

That's a different look. Total non phase yet isnt a straight slider either. Trying to prove me wrong (above) that the middle road solution would be a stretch.

[yoda]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

ICON stepped back quite a bit with the strength of next week's shortwave. Similar to the 0z CMC's version but even weaker. MUCH weaker than what the GFS is trying to do

 

Quick stupid question... would the ICON be what we want with the strength of the s/w?  Or do we want a stronger s/w that threads the needle?

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's a different look. Total non phase yet isnt a straight slider either. Trying to prove me wrong (above) that the middle road solution would be a stretch.

So far there has been a tendency to phase/amp more this season as the lead shifts from medium to short. I like seeing a run like the ICON because too much amp/phase could ruin everything for the MA. I'm totally good with a mixed event as long as the front side delivers something more than a conversation. ICON was still pretty close to a nasogood solution. If the GFS and Euro back down a little things will get pretty interesting...

[Bob Chill]

Just now, yoda said:

Quick stupid question... would the ICON be what we want with the strength of the s/w?  Or do we want a stronger s/w that threads the needle?

ICON didn't phase at all. If we want a good track and all snow then we can't afford to have stream interaction. A weaker/unphased/sheared solution will cut down on QPF so there's a tradeoff. 

IMHO- the easiest way to win here is to have a middle of the road solution like Ralph mentioned and have the WAA piece hit us flush. If everything shifts to unphased/weak then we run the risk of little to no precip at all as everything slides underneath. Always a dance with this stuff. 

[pasnownut]

Is it just me or does the GFS have a good look for follow up (at 96)?  Liking trough axis for next vort coming out of SW.  I guess we'll know shortly.

[LP08]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Is it just me or does the GFS have a good look for follow up?  Liking trough axis for next vort coming out of SW.  I guess we'll know shortly.

Certainly better early on.  This weekends storm is stronger compressing heights some.