December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well yeah.  But either way, not worth getting excited or in angst about it.  Still in fantasy time.  If this was 120hr.....

GEFS had a couple euro'ish solutions. Wide spread across the board though. Being honest... this has the feel of slipping away to the NW so if that's going to happen lets just get it over with and stop being teased. 

[Bob Chill]

This is a better view of the spread. About even with all rain or mixed. All snow is possible but least likely imo. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS had a couple euro'ish solutions. Wide spread across the board though. Being honest... this has the feel of slipping away to the NW so if that's going to happen lets just get it over with and stop being teased. 

That is probably more likely than a hit, frankly because any storm in mid December is way more likely to miss us to the NW than any other solution, but this setup has a lot more resistance to ridging ahead of it than the last few so I give it more of a chance.  Still not likely, but not as much of a long shot as the last few.  

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That is probably more likely than a hit, frankly because any storm in mid December is way more likely to miss us to the NW than any other solution, but this setup has a lot more resistance to ridging ahead of it than the last few so I give it more of a chance.  Still not likely, but not as much of a long shot as the last few.  

Yea, there's a clear path to victory and the 50/50 won't be resolved for a few days. Interestingly, the euro is tanking the NAO leading into the event. Next panels are better but it's clearly building by hr144

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, there's a clear path to victory and the 50/50 won't be resolved for a few days. Interestingly, the euro is tanking the NAO leading into the event. Next panels are better but it's clearly building by hr144

All I know is this is the most active "torch" pattern ever.  I am sure eventually we will get a legit one week warm period and those who have been calling for it since mid November will say "told ya so".  

[WxUSAF]

If I had to wager, the big wildcard for next week is that TPV location.  Sure, subtleties of where the 50-50, cyclonic wave-breaking forced -NAO, and shortwave positioning will matter, but I think that TPV location is the most likely make or break piece on the chessboard.  Move it too far south and if a piece of it phases in, that would tend to pull everything to the NW.  I suppose if more of it ends up in the 50-50 low or over Hudson Bay that could even produce a suppressed scenario (although I'd put that at least likely).  We want it to stay out of the way up there in Nunavut.  

[CAPE]

12z Euro ens mean has a primary low tracking up to N WV, then a low developing off the DE coast. Looks like a mix to rain then ending as snow verbatim. Long way to go but in general at this juncture it looks like a mixed deal and favoring NW portions of the region.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If I had to wager, the big wildcard for next week is that TPV location.  Sure, subtleties of where the 50-50, cyclonic wave-breaking forced -NAO, and shortwave positioning will matter, but I think that TPV location is the most likely make or break piece on the chessboard.  Move it too far south and if a piece of it phases in, that would tend to pull everything to the NW.  I suppose if more of it ends up in the 50-50 low or over Hudson Bay that could even produce a suppressed scenario (although I'd put that at least likely).  We want it to stay out of the way up there in Nunavut.  

Agree. That was my overall take looking at the 12z GFS op run.

[LP08]

Definitely more NAO and AO ridging on the EPS.  Keep from too much interaction with the TPV and this is a great look.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agree. That was my overall take looking at the 12z GFS op run.

Reading elsewhere, apparently EPS shows this with a fair number looking like the GFS.  But that^ NAO and 50-50 do look good.  

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Reading elsewhere, apparently EPS shows this with a fair number looking like the GFS.  But that^ NAO and 50-50 do look good.  

I didn't dig into the individual members, but took a peak at the EPS mean, and it depicts a primary low tracking up towards Pittsburgh, then a coastal developing off the MA. I would imagine there are a fair amount of members with the TPV significantly interacting with the southern energy.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I didn't dig into the individual members, but took a peak at the EPS mean, and it depicts a primary low tracking up towards Pittsburgh, then a coastal developing off the MA. I would imagine there are a fair amount of members with the TPV significantly interacting with the southern energy.

Quick scan shows typical wide spread but def a cluster that delivers on the waa piece (control run included). Not too many flush hits with a nice track but I liked seeing a good # delivering measurable even with the west/overhead track. 

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Quick scan shows typical wide spread but def a cluster that delivers on the waa piece (control run included). Not too many flush hits with a nice track but I liked seeing a good # delivering measurable even with the west/overhead track. 

That’s good to hear at least. You’d think that 50-50 and NAO should support enough confluence aloft to hold some cold air around initially. But we want that TPV to stay away.

[frd]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Quick scan shows typical wide spread but def a cluster that delivers on the waa piece (control run included). Not too many flush hits with a nice track but I liked seeing a good # delivering measurable even with the west/overhead track. 

Bob, if in future EPS runs,  we see heights lower in the SE and off the SE coast what would be the implications regarding the storm threat?  Would it mean a further South transfer, or is that too simple a presumption, or even an incorrect outcome?  I know heights would react to changes upstream as well, such as the  50/50, TPV location, the NAO, etc. 

We have had that look off the SE coast for a while. It waxes and wanes.   

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

35 minutes ago, frd said:

Bob, if in future EPS runs,  we see heights lower in the SE and off the SE coast what would be the implications regarding the storm threat?  Would it mean a further South transfer, or is that too simple a presumption, or even an incorrect outcome?  I know heights would react to changes upstream as well, such as the  50/50, TPV location, the NAO, etc. 

We have had that look off the SE coast for a while. It waxes and wanes.   

 

 

 

I'm not exactly sure what you're asking. Is there a panel you can post showing what time frame and area of lower heights you're asking about?

 

[Bob Chill]

18z ICON shifted much closer together with the 50/50 and plains shortwave. This looks pretty good to me and it's not weeks into the future. 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z ICON shifted much closer together with the 50/50 and plains shortwave. This looks pretty good to me and it's not weeks into the future. 

 

Think that would work its way into that bubble/gap in the ns and head up the Ohio Valley before jumping. But if we get that high to hang over ne at the same time we probably get a good front end. I’d be happy with that.

[JakkelWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Think that would work its way into that bubble/gap in the ns and head up the Ohio Valley before jumping. But if we get that high to hang over ne at the same time we probably get a good front end. I’d be happy with that.

Or a potential MECS if the canadian high trends stronger and we time it just right with the TPV staying back.

[Skywalker03]

Learning question:  Does 50/50 refer to longitude/latitude?  If so, doesn't that map show a 50/70 L?  If I understand correctly, we want a strong system there because it funnels cold air into our area, right?

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Skywalker03 said:

Learning question:  Does 50/50 refer to longitude/latitude?  If so, doesn't that map show a 50/70 L?  If I understand correctly, we want a strong system there because it funnels cold air into our area, right?

It does and we use the term loosely to describe any blocking low pressure near the martimes. The one in question is transient and on the move. 

A true classic 50/50 is held in place by a -NAO and that's how we typically get the really big storms but we've had many events work out with transient ones. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Skywalker03 said:

Learning question:  Does 50/50 refer to longitude/latitude?  If so, doesn't that map show a 50/70 L?  If I understand correctly, we want a strong system there because it funnels cold air into our area, right?

Pretty much...general area of lat/lon, 50N/50W, that you'd want a large closed low at 500-mb (maybe a bit farther west than 50W, but 50/50 sounds better!).  Classic location to get confluent flow over the northeast US, which funnels cold air down, and keeps a large, cold high in place (a'la cold air damming along the Appalachians).  This effectively blocks any approaching surface low from "cutting" off to our west and northwest, and enables coastal low formation.  Without some kind of 50/50, even a cold, strong high will just drift off to the east or northeast, a strong enough low will cut, and we'd end up with mostly rain or all rain.

[midatlanticweather]

That was not the happy hour run we were looking for. I think even more phase ..

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It does and we use the term loosely to describe any blocking low pressure near the martimes. The one in question is transient and on the move. 

A true classic 50/50 is held in place by a -NAO and that's how we typically get the really big storms but we've had many events work out with transient ones. 

If I recall correctly, I believe the January 2016 blizzard benefited from a "bootleg" transient 50/50 at the time...so yeah, we can get those to work out (though good storms don't necessarily have to be as big as that event)!  But as you say, a classic 50/50 -NAO is more stable...PD-II and our troika of HECS in 2009-10 are examples of the more classic -NAO events.

[MDstorm]

43 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

That was not the happy hour run we were looking for. I think even more phase ..

 

But the storm after the storm is a real beauty. 

[psuhoffman]

Gfs shows the path to a white Xmas miracle. I’m not saying the 17/18th system isn’t a threat.  But if it does end up phasing with the TPV and cutting that will pinwheel the whole PV down to our north then northeast and set up a good prolonged window of opportunity right before Xmas. And given the fact the stj keeps throwing waves at us every 3-4 days I find it likely something would take advantage.  This pattern isn’t perfect but keep the stj active and the pattern workable and amplified and I think it’s only a matter of time. 

[midatlanticweather]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs shows the path to a white Xmas miracle. I’m not saying the 17/18th system isn’t a threat.  But if it does end up phasing with the TPV and cutting that will pinwheel the whole PV down to our north then northeast and set up a good prolonged window of opportunity right before Xmas. And given the fact the stj keeps throwing waves at us every 3-4 days I find it likely something would take advantage.  This pattern isn’t perfect but keep the stj active and the pattern workable and amplified and I think it’s only a matter of time. 

Feel this story keeps repeating! Always the storm after the storm. But I would take it! Tuesday front thump would still be good though.

 

[Amped]

Thats a pretty good impression of the February 22 1987 storm on the GFS

[poolz1]

GEFS def liking this period (D10-12) more than 12z.  Not bad...

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Feel this story keeps repeating! Always the storm after the storm. But I would take it! Tuesday front thump would still be good though.

 

It prob won't work that way. Something will pop up in the medium range after we already wrote it off in the long range. Flow is very busy. Has the feel that something will work out. Might not be clean or pretty but the pattern is way better than a shutout and it's not terribly hard to get an event mid Dec onward. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

GEFS def liking this period (D10-12) more than 12z.  Not bad...

Agreed. One of the better h5 looks of the year right here. Legit 50/50 and -NAO.