frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: We always need wiggle room. Very true. A score before Christmas, regardless of tomorrow's outcome would be awesome , but also possibly show this winter wants to deliver the goods for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Regardless if we've cashed in on anything yet, it is clear that we're getting off on the right foot with a bunch of threats to track. Beats the hell out of last year. Must be a good sign if you are stopping by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 MJO Update from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 If only ........ Plus, I like the green blob over Delaware, probably additional cooling from a recent SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Interesting euro run last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Eric mentions the weakening of the previous record + IOD is a plus overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Is it bad that I'm more interested in this thread than the anafront tonight/tomm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Is it bad that I'm more interested in this thread than the anafront tonight/tomm? I'm right there with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Is it bad that I'm more interested in this thread than the anafront tonight/tomm? I mean the threat next week has a lot more upside but if that HRDPS death band sets up over you I suspect that will change quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Some cool stuff going on with the NAM state, also today's CPC ensembles has trended better yet again with a more so - AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Is it bad that I'm more interested in this thread than the anafront tonight/tomm? No...your just a wise old man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: Some cool stuff going on with the NAM state, also today's CPC ensembles has trended better yet again with a more so - AO. I've become a fan of the AO in recent years, and we CAN do alright with that in our snow camp. Good to hear. add to that NAO headed neutral, and we can do ok w/ zonal bowling balls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Very timely post by severeweatherblog Expect rather abrupt model changes continuing, and going forward, due to several competing factors. A difficult time to model coming up for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 @Bob Chill I know there was that one euro run but I always thought the “storm after the storm” made more sense. Get the wave break from this weekends storm to help flip the NAO and knock down the WAR and we would have a window of opportunity behind it that didn’t rely on perfect timing. Still need to get lucky. No setup is a sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill I know there was that one euro run but I always thought the “storm after the storm” made more sense. Get the wave break from this weekends storm to help flip the NAO and knock down the WAR and we would have a window of opportunity behind it that didn’t rely on perfect timing. Still need to get lucky. No setup is a sure thing. No doubt the most attractive setup at a non-fantasy range we've seen so far. I like it. The main worry is how far north the shortwave tracks west of the MS river. There is a transient block in place to keep the hp locked in. Would suck if the shortwave tracks overhead and areas north get their second nice event of the year while we twiddle our thumbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No doubt the most attractive setup at a non-fantasy range we've seen so far. I like it. The main worry is how far north the shortwave tracks west of the MS river. There is a transient block in place to keep the hp locked in. Would suck if the shortwave tracks overhead and areas north get their second nice event of the year while we twiddle our thumbs. yep gfs shows that---lol. ignores the block/50 50 low and takes it to ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 That is always a worry, especially before xmas when in general we typically lack the depth of cold air-masses along the east coast to offer enough resistance to WAA to overcome imperfections in the primary low track. I will hang my hat on this though...we have already had several absolutely beautiful H5 passes this cold season that failed primarily due to the antecedent airmass being mediocre, and mediocre isn't good enough in November and early December. Keep that same phenomenon happening and we will likely win a few times once into prime climo. And a few "wins" is all it takes for us to both hit our "near climo" expectations. Add in some luck and maybe even better than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, Ji said: yep gfs shows that---lol. ignores the block/50 50 low and takes it to ohio mid-december climo here still kinda sucks. There have been plenty of great looking h5 setups that lead to snow to our north this time of year, even in blockbuster winters we remember fondly. Had we not had that fluky upper low snow band on xmas morning that 2002 storm would be remembered as a major fail despite a good looking pattern. 1995 we saw a major storm run to our north the week before xmas despite a damn near perfect block. Even in January and February a good pattern doesn't guaruntee snow in your back yard. It simply gets you in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: yep gfs shows that---lol. ignores the block/50 50 low and takes it to ohio The entire 500mb height field shifted north so you could see it coming pretty early. Many days of mid-range shifts coming up so maybe this breaks in our favor. If it's going to track west at least give us some waa love. We have a decent cold hp and a 50/50 setup. Wasting that on not getting a single flake would be exceptionally lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: yep gfs shows that---lol. ignores the block/50 50 low and takes it to ohio Its not ignoring the block- there really isn't much of a block this run. Too much interaction, too soon between the NS and the ss shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The entire 500mb height field shifted north so you could see it coming pretty early. Many days of mid-range shifts coming up so maybe this breaks in our favor. If it's going to track west at least give us some waa love. We have a decent cold hp and a 50/50 setup. Wasting that on not getting a single flake would be exceptionally lame. Son, do you know where we live? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its not ignoring the block- there really isn't much of a block this run. Too much interaction, too soon between the NS and the ss shortwave. Technically there is too much separation between the 50/50 vortex and the main TPV and the east coast ridge is able to "split the block" so to speak. Dangerous to project but the causes the system around the 18th to phase with the TPV and pull that down and from the look around 200 its setting up a damn nice pattern heading towards xmas though so maybe that isnt a bad way to go. At the least it would probably prevent the typical torchmas we are used too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Technically there is too much separation between the 50/50 vortex and the main TPV and the east coast ridge is able to "split the block" so to speak. Dangerous to project but the causes the system around the 18th to phase with the TPV and pull that down and from the look around 200 its setting up a damn nice pattern heading towards xmas though so maybe that isnt a bad way to go. At the least it would probably prevent the typical torchmas we are used too. Op run at range, yaddayaddayadda, but GFS says our torch period next week is full of arctic air. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 That’s a hell of an ice/sleet storm in TX at 234-252. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the system around the 18th to phase with the TPV and pull that down and from the look around 200 its setting up a damn nice pattern heading towards xmas This is right around the time period when both the AO and even the NAO may both be negative. More support for the AO to be negative. Ever so slightly, the run up to xmas is improving to a degree. However, whether the models have it figured out correctly is impossible to say at this time. Extreme volatility is more likely, but there is some support for a - NAM state and if the wave break occurs and works in our favor we might be shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Technically there is too much separation between the 50/50 vortex and the main TPV and the east coast ridge is able to "split the block" so to speak. Dangerous to project but the causes the system around the 18th to phase with the TPV and pull that down and from the look around 200 its setting up a damn nice pattern heading towards xmas though so maybe that isnt a bad way to go. At the least it would probably prevent the typical torchmas we are used too. We know the op runs will struggle with the details. In general, because we don't have a true block, for this to work it will take some precise timing. That 50-50 low is a transient feature, and the interplay between the TPV over central Canada and the southern energy will be critical. The 0z run got it done by keeping some separation- not capturing the shortwave, and the 50-50 low was in perfect position with ridging over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: That’s a hell of an ice/sleet storm in TX at 234-252. Thats what happens with a 1048mb-1050mb HP cruising into the Plains at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Op run at range, yaddayaddayadda, but GFS says our torch period next week is full of arctic air. The one consistent this cold season so far has been a progressive amplified pattern. Neither cold nor warm periods last very long but overall things seem to be biased slightly towards the colder side. Keep that going all winter and I think we win enough by our standards to have an acceptable winter. Won't make Ji happy since most of our snow would melt pretty quickly each time but for the rest of us that arent delusional about where we live would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Pretty sure that the 12z GFS is going to be very tasty in the Dec 22-23 time period for us with that sprawling HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Maybe it's just me but I have a thing for epic simulated southern stream panels 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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