December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

Nice shift on the euro for mid next week. 50/50 blocks hp from escaping as the wave moves through the tn valley. IMO- if the progression happened exactly like the euro shows, it would be mostly or entirely snow/frozen precip. It's a good setup verbatim. 

ETA: this is a good panel showing what I am saying. This is a bread and butter snow and/or ice event setup

[Buddy1987]

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

To each their own, but I've never understood the fascination with freezing rain. It's just incredibly dangerous. I guess it can look really pretty if it really accumulates? Also have to worry about power issues. Also hate those storms where you can the initial thump of snow to rain. Kinda pointless when it literally washes away in a few hours.

I just more or less appreciate something other than rain to where it's some form of winter weather. Guess it helps a lot of my power is all ran underground in new development lol but still just a genuine winter enthusiast. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nice shift on the euro for mid next week. 50/50 blocks hp from escaping as the wave moves through the tn valley. IMO- if the progression happened exactly like the euro shows, it would be mostly or entirely snow/frozen precip. It's a good setup verbatim. 

ETA: this is a good panel showing what I am saying. This is a bread and butter snow and/or ice event setup

The ensembles support the general idea. There is potential in this look. 

and I know the guidance is favoring a ridge now but I could see something cut under later next week with this look up top also. 

After that things go to crap but by then we are in the “not very reliable” range for guidance this year. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The ensembles support the general idea. There is potential in this look. 

and I know the guidance is favoring a ridge now but I could see something cut under later next week with this look up top also. 

After that things go to crap but by then we are in the “not very reliable” range for guidance this year. 

There's definitely a way to make it work d7-10. No wiggle room as shown. I'm a little jaded with trends in the mid range though. The follow up rainstorm this weekend looked like a nice cad/snow event in the d8-10 range but it significantly devolved in the wrong direction as leads shortened. Each window is unique. Maybe something pops. After next weekend is looking rough. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

There's definitely a way to make it work d8-10. No wiggle room as shown. I'm a little jaded with trends in the mid range though. The follow up rainstorm this weekend looked like a nice cad/snow event in the d8-10 range but it significantly devolved in the wrong direction as leads shortened. Each window is unique. Maybe something pops. After next weekend is looking rough. 

Speculation, but the AO should be slightly negative near day 8, ( and possibly declining further from there  ) and if so,  this may play a role in a better outcome than this weekend.

As you mention,  originally when the rainstorm this weekend looked like a a nice CAD event I believe the AO was forecasted to be negative, right now that is not the case. 

A week ago there was posting about a interval during mid-month that would give us a better look up top. Maybe this is going to happen and hence we see the potential in the d8-10 period. 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps  looks better as well at h5 comparing to 0z for day 8 

I posted h5 and precip panels from the 0z EPS run this morning highlighting the potential. 12z looks a bit better but its splitting hairs at this range. Overall it looks like a window is there and it's a pretty decent signal given we are 8 days out. Plenty of time for it to fall apart lol.

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Yes.. Already seems to be showing that way. With no real block we just are hoping for timing. That rarely works out. Things aren't disastrous yet with Temps averaging below normal, but the long range is not behaving as models show it days in advance. Short leads will tell the tale.. Keep cold around and get into colder climo and I think we will luck out, but so far, luck has not been on our side. 

But it’s December 9. How much luck do you expect to be on our side at this point?

[psuhoffman]

I don’t mind where the EPS is going day 15 either. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t mind where the EPS is going day 15 either. 

Agreed. Watch the bad PAC look get muted as we get closer. Seeing it already. Meanwhile, seeing suggestions of higher heights building in the NA.

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t mind where the EPS is going day 15 either. 

Traveling today so haven’t been able to look at much, but GEFS was tanking the AO. How does the ao look on the eps?

[MountainGeek]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agreed. Watch the bad PAC look get muted as we get closer. Seeing it already. Meanwhile, seeing suggestions of higher heights in the NA.

 

Didn't we have a similar situation in 13-14 where people would fret over a crappy pattern in the LR and just around the corner, but the bad looks frequently fell apart once we got closer in time? Last year was the inverse, where the good looks stayed 10-15 days out most of the winter.

Not saying this year will play out the same, just interesting.....

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Traveling today so haven’t been able to look at much, but GEFS was tanking the AO. How does the ao look on the eps?

Here's d15 h5. You can make a case for both good or bad down the line. 

 

The issue that I'm seeing happens during d10-15. A series of troughs in the epac scour nearly all of NA from cold continental air. Here's the d10-15 mean 850 anomalies.... If this verifies then it will take some work to recover. 

[midatlanticweather]

32 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But it’s December 9. How much luck do you expect to be on our side at this point?

Not much at all! That is why it is LUCK! And we have to get super lucky! Not impossible by the 9th of December to have been lucky! For small events (1 - 3 inches) 

 

[Bob Chill]

This shows it better. Here's d8-15 850 temp loop. The beginning of the trouble starts d7 so it's not all that far in the future. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Traveling today so haven’t been able to look at much, but GEFS was tanking the AO. How does the ao look on the eps?

Tanks it by 150 

this period looks somewhat interesting. 

the very end it looks to me to be cutting the western trough underneath the blocking and rolling forward would be a decent pattern. Imo

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This shows it better. Here's d8-15 850 temp loop. The beginning of the trouble starts d7 so it's not all that far in the future. 

Let's say that this issue does indeed happen...do you think we recover by prime climo time (that is, Jan 15th on), or does it even cut into that?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The ensembles support the general idea. There is potential in this look. 

and I know the guidance is favoring a ridge now but I could see something cut under later next week with this look up top also. 

After that things go to crap but by then we are in the “not very reliable” range for guidance this year. 

But IF we are to run into PAC trouble, gotta wonder if this could be our last window for awhile (which, again, wouldn't be much different from what we've seen the last several years...the time between Christmas and mid January has become a null-zone, lol)

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let's say that this issue does indeed happen...do you think we recover by prime climo time (that is, Jan 15th on), or does it even cut into that?

There's no way to know. Could flip on a dime with a pna or epo ridge popping up or it can persist for weeks. I always assume a minimum of 5 days to recover once flow is deflected away from the coast. I won't worry about a way out unless we end up in it first. 

[frd]

The trends are trending ..........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

Gfs looks good for 18th to 20 window

[Prestige Worldwide]

Judah to the panic room?

[Ji]

Judah to the panic room?

Well he is usually wrong no matter what he forecasts

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

10 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Judah to the panic room?

Well he is usually wrong no matter what he forecasts

DW. He will take credit regardless.

[frd]

 

As expected , the decline has commenced.

 

 

[TJ3]

1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Judah to the panic room?

He’s thinking about it. Says vortex disruption prediction a bust for  near future. But going to hang his hat on favorable arctic region to deliver the goods. 

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

He’s thinking about it. Says vortex disruption prediction a bust for  near future. But going to hang his hat on favorable arctic region to deliver the goods. 

Cohen actually taught me a very good lesson about the spv and tpv. The tpv cannot be predicted at all from any lead beyond a week or 2. The spv actually can be predicted somewhat further in advance but what the spv does to the troposphere/sensible wx cannot be predicted at all so it doesn't matter if you get the strat right or wrong.

[frd]

The "weaklies" look blah-ish to me through the end of January.

Looking at 500 along with 2 meter temps they seem to possibly echo the seasonal outlooks from back in October and November. However, what they show is not surprising, and I put very little faith in them. 

The look also seems washed out, with nothing to hang your hat on.   

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

The "weaklies" look blah-ish to me through the end of January.

Looking at 500 along with 2 meter temps they seem to possibly echo the seasonal outlooks from back in October and November. However, what they show is not surprising, and I put very little faith in them. 

The look also seems washed out, with nothing to hang your hat on.   

I don't even know what you just said 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I don't even know what you just said 

I only had three beers.......  getting ready for the Eagles game. I need to be a little buzzed to watch my home town team. Ugh !   

To clarify, they look a bit on the warm side until the end of January.

They also look like the Euro seasonal model runs which depict little high latitude blocking.  So, they match the Euro seasonals from Sept and October that forecast little blocking and a not so good pattern for us.  I hope that is clearer.  

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

The "weaklies" look blah-ish to me through the end of January.

Looking at 500 along with 2 meter temps they seem to possibly echo the seasonal outlooks from back in October and November. However, what they show is not surprising, and I put very little faith in them. 

The look also seems washed out, with nothing to hang your hat on.   

They look good enough. Very seasonable start to finish with no major torches or ice boxes. The MA region oscillates equally between slightly above and below normal temps start to finish. If anything, the entire 45 day period looks just like the next 2 weeks. Not great, not a shutout, and should provide chances off and on. 

One thing I noticed is there are no strong 500mb height anoms parked anywhere. No strong teleconnection signals either. That tells me that inside of the weekly's mean panels are equal distribution of every possible outcome. Lol.