December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

Just now, LurkerBoy said:

So we’re officially going mild...?

Unless the ensembles are completely wrong I would say we are in for at least a few days of mild weather. Remains to be seen if it becomes a prolonged stretch. No sense in hand wringing over something that is 10 days away.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Unless the ensembles are completely wrong I would say we are in for at least a few days of mild weather. Remains to be seen if it becomes a prolonged stretch. No sense in hand wringing over something that is 10 days away.

Sort of like last year? Repeatedly day 10+ epic pattern that never materialized which half the time was a 180 of what was shown day 12 onward. Like Bob said, nobody knows. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Unless the ensembles are completely wrong I would say we are in for at least a few days of mild weather. Remains to be seen if it becomes a prolonged stretch. No sense in hand wringing over something that is 10 days away.

It gets tiring sometimes. It's like we can't talk about mild risk because the second the topic comes up it suddenly morphs into winter cancel. It could be no mild period, a very short one, or a really long one. Don't know. That's why we open the discussion. To figure it out...

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It gets tiring sometimes. It's like we can't talk about mild risk because the second the topic comes up it suddenly morphs into winter cancel. It could be no mild period, a very short one, or a really long one. Don't know. That's why we open the discussion. To figure it out...

Well, the bad looks and meh patterns have been short-lived essentially since October. So you probably have a general idea of where I'm leaning.

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Sort of like last year? Repeatedly day 10+ epic pattern that never materialized was half the time was a 180 of what was shown day 12 onward. Like Bob said, nobody knows. 

Yeah, I know.

I am not on the warm train because the LR guidance is currently suggesting a PAC flood. Pay closer attention.

[frd]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Unless the ensembles are completely wrong I would say we are in for at least a few days of mild weather. Remains to be seen if it becomes a prolonged stretch. No sense in hand wringing over something that is 10 days away.

Exactly, I say enjoy the holidays and the time of year as we track the progression.  After all,  the models have been flipping and flopping, expect change and change will happen.

Classic holiday music still sounds great even when it is a bit mild outside.. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It gets tiring sometimes. It's like we can't talk about mild risk because the second the topic comes up it suddenly morphs into winter cancel. It could be no mild period, a very short one, or a really long one. Don't know. That's why we open the discussion. To figure it out...

I may bring up my concerns, but I love snow, and I am not cancelling winter. I feel my position on that is the same. I remain hopeful and I believe the winter will deliver.

I am simply bring something out to discuss. I love when poolz, wxusaf, showme, you Bob, and psu ( plus many, many others ) add value to this forum by contributing really great stats, insights, and research to show where we may be headed.  We have the best long range thread here at America wx in my opinion.   

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well, the bad looks and meh patterns have been short-lived essentially since October. So you probably have a general idea of where I'm leaning.

Thats been in my mind as well.  LR guidance has been challenging at best.  With no dominant tellies (MJO AO etc.) to force anything good or bad, its more of a meh period that can still have a surprise or 2.  In my mind, PAC firehose is biggest concern, and as long as we have +PNA things can break in our favor.  That is about to go neutral, so a period of meh is likely.   

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

I may bring up my concerns, but I love snow, and I am not cancelling winter. I feel my position on that is the same. I remain hopeful and I believe the winter will deliver.

I am simply bring something out to discuss. I love when poolz, wxusaf, showme, you Bob, and psu ( plus many, many others ) add value to this forum by contributing really great stats, insights, and research to show where we may be headed.  We have the best long range thread here at America wx in my opinion.   

This is a discussion thread, and factoring prominently in that is model discussion. We should not need to use qualifiers every time we mention day 10+ ensemble mean projections just to coddle the panic prone. They all know where to take that shit.

[frd]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

People are saying “this should lead to that” but when I look at actual examples it didn’t play out that way.  Granted I’m simply looking at things from 30,000 feet trying to pick out correlations but I see plenty of evidence to refute typical low AAM expectations.  

 

How timely is this        " this should lead to that "     or       x means y   

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

I may bring up my concerns, but I love snow, and I am not cancelling winter. I feel my position on that is the same. I remain hopeful and I believe the winter will deliver.

I am simply bring something out to discuss. I love when poolz, wxusaf, showme, you Bob, and psu ( plus many, many others ) add value to this forum by contributing really great stats, insights, and research to show where we may be headed.  We have the best long range thread here at America wx in my opinion.   

The biggest wildcard is whether or not the mid range blocking is a sign that the longwave pattern is shifting back to blocky for a longer period than a few days. Blocking can offset the unfavorable stuff in the Pac. Sometimes the pac will still overwhelm even with HL blocking and other times it's enough to keep us in the game. 

The ao/nao ens trends have been good recently. That's a bright spot. It's entirely possible things get so good above we don't have to care what's happening to the left. Gefs/geps are backing off from a hostile pac. Eps looks fairly atrocious. If the eps shifts towards the gefs/geps I'll feel a lot better. 

[poolz1]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

I may bring up my concerns, but I love snow, and I am not cancelling winter. I feel my position on that is the same. I remain hopeful and I believe the winter will deliver.

I am simply bring something out to discuss. I love when poolz, wxusaf, showme, you Bob, and psu ( plus many, many others ) add value to this forum by contributing really great stats, insights, and research to show where we may be headed.  We have the best long range thread here at America wx in my opinion.   

No doubt about that.  There are a ton of great posters all over American but this thread is packed with great insights.  You dont have to sift through 50 memory lane posts about a storm in 1967...lol 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I've been only keying on day 10 and under irt patterns and real weather. Only looking at 'fantasy' range for fun this season. With that said, 8 days ago part of the PV was progged to drop into Ov and spill into the MA and NE. Now instead of -17 2m departures we are looking at -3 in spots. Wed/Thurs. Big diffs showing again inside of 10 days. Here is Day 9...doesnt look mild and again....could change or moderate but these bad looks and West Coast trofs continue to get muted as lead times lessen or have been transient. Pattern reload out West will happen....inevitable. Key is 'reload' based off of the background state setting up and the flow/pattern repitionwehave generally seen for the past 6 or 7 weeks. And even a -PNA can produce. If the AO and NAO can look remotely like this, we can play the balancing act game.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It’s important to look at those height lines also. Now if we were seeing 570+ over our region I’d think mild. But at 550 and lower, I think probably around normal. The cold continental air is still there in that pattern. It just gets modified with the PAC air. It won’t be cold per se but I think it will be cold enough for a storm to drag in some or a high pressure to funnel in enough that it can still snow in that pattern. Any precip events would likely be quick with that flow.

Also, that’s a mean. I’m sure there are solutions that are both cold and warm. But overall that look doesn’t scream torch in my opinion. When the heights go above 570 and you start to see that bulge over Florida then you can get out the sunscreen.

 

[Bob Chill]

@WinterWxLuvr

The GEFS mean looks much better than the EPS but the underlying problem with the pacific is still very present inside of the GEFS mean. Here's the spread inside of the 6z mean. Notice how many solutions have a trough near the west coast with the pac jet running straight into the conus. Very few solutions with type of split flow setup that works here. There's not a single member solution that looks attractive below. 

 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s important to look at those height lines also. Now if we were seeing 570+ over our region I’d think mild. But at 550 and lower, I think probably around normal. The cold continental air is still there in that pattern. It just gets modified with the PAC air. It won’t be cold per se but I think it will be cold enough for a storm to drag in some or a high pressure to funnel in enough that it can still snow in that pattern. Any precip events would likely be quick with that flow.

Also, that’s a mean. I’m sure there are solutions that are both cold and warm. But overall that look doesn’t scream torch in my opinion. When the heights go above 570 and you start to see that bulge over Florida then you can get out the sunscreen.

 

thats a neutral pna right there, and why we can still get something to come across and be close enough for something to watch.  We've seen far worse looks. Not saying this is a snow pattern whatsoever, but its also not a close the shades/toaster bath either.  While we all search for snow, above is quite normalish IMO.

[frd]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ive been only keying on day 10 and under irt patterns and real weather. Only looking at 'fantasy' range for fun this season. With that said, 8 days ago part of the PV was progged to drop into Ov and spill into the MA and NE. Now instead of -17 2m departures we are looking at -3 in spots.

 

Ralph, keep this in mind with the GEFS,  as it has been running too cold per bluewave, especially in the SE portion of the country, but here as well. 

from bluewave: 

<<

I wouldn’t go by the GEFS since it’s been running too cold.

 

>>>>>

[frd]

The improving trend on the CPC ensembles continue for the AO. The consensus take it to - 1 SD by the 16th. Then a somewhat continued decline after that. Far better then what was forecasted several days ago. I hope it is correct.    

[LurkerBoy]

Hey y’all, didn’t mean to cause any annoyance. I was literally just asking if it seemed like a lock or not - not asking for someone to “lock it up”. Sometimes LR warmth is 98% likely. Looks like this year it’s not as easy as that. I’ve been enjoying this year so far - feels like one from my youth. All I want is sweaters to not suffocate me on a post-xmas walk. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

How timely is this        " this should lead to that "     or       x means y   

 

 

 

He must be seeing the same things I am...

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It gets tiring sometimes. It's like we can't talk about mild risk because the second the topic comes up it suddenly morphs into winter cancel. It could be no mild period, a very short one, or a really long one. Don't know. That's why we open the discussion. To figure it out...

It's impossible at our latitude to run the table December to March cold.  That just isn't going to happen.  Even our blockbuster winters have mild periods and people crying about our lost snowcover.  People need to get that out of their head.  

[psuhoffman]

@frd @C.A.P.E. @Bob Chill

I have no doubts we will suffer a mild period somewhere, and we should be able to discuss that.  But I am skeptical that it is more than a temporary period.  There have been several "panics" already when a warm look showed up in the long range only to realize it was transient by the time it got to the medium range.  Already the GEFS and GEPS are backing down and we can see the "other side" by the end of the run.  The EPS has been trying to dump a trough into the west several times and it's never locked in.  I am not convinced yet that we will suffer a really long term crap pattern.  Transient warm periods though are a sure thing.  

[UniversesBelowNormal]

Weird -PNA showing up in the medium/long range.. we can't break that Hadley Cell. 

Love this -NAO signal

(384)

[Bob Chill]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd @C.A.P.E. @Bob Chill

I have no doubts we will suffer a mild period somewhere, and we should be able to discuss that.  But I am skeptical that it is more than a temporary period.  There have been several "panics" already when a warm look showed up in the long range only to realize it was transient by the time it got to the medium range.  Already the GEFS and GEPS are backing down and we can see the "other side" by the end of the run.  The EPS has been trying to dump a trough into the west several times and it's never locked in.  I am not convinced yet that we will suffer a really long term crap pattern.  Transient warm periods though are a sure thing.  

When we first saw this week's frontal wave, the period beyond looked really good. The ens mean h5 setup looked pretty nice for a chance at a decent event. That period now looks like crap. Not total crap but crap compared to what we were thinking a week ago. The cold front this week initially looked like a really nice push of cold air is going to verify as a weak sauce transient cold hp with a rainstorm on the heels. 

There does look to be another shot at something d7-10 so we'll see how that goes. My gut (unfortunately) is telling me that things will degrade with less available cold and lower chances at an event. 

[midatlanticweather]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When we first saw this week's frontal wave, the period beyond looked really good. The ens mean h5 setup looked pretty nice for a chance at a decent event. That period now looks like crap. Not total crap but crap compared to what we were thinking a week ago. The cold front this week initially looked like a really nice push of cold air is going to verify as a weak sauce transient cold hp with a rainstorm on the heels. 

There does look to be another shot at something d7-10 so we'll see how that goes. My gut (unfortunately) is telling me that things will degrade with less available cold and lower chances at an event. 

Yes.. Already seems to be showing that way. With no real block we just are hoping for timing. That rarely works out. Things aren't disastrous yet with Temps averaging below normal, but the long range is not behaving as models show it days in advance. Short leads will tell the tale.. Keep cold around and get into colder climo and I think we will luck out, but so far, luck has not been on our side. 

[frd]

 

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The cold front this week initially looked like a really nice push of cold air is going to verify as a weak sauce transient cold hp with a rainstorm on the heels. 

The depth and expanse of the cold push has really diminished the last four days. 

When you compare the AO right now to the time period November 1 st to November 20 th , it was in a steady decline starting on the first and continued to drop to - 2 SD on the 20th. I believe this aided in the surge South of the bitter air mass along with the assistance from the PAC at that time, and a couple other factors.  

What is really interesting is how unusual the November cold period really was, and what, if anything it might mean further down the road when we get a prolonged -NAM state. 

Granted these November cold intrusions are not new, having occurred several times recently this decade. So, as is the theme so far this Fall , it is very hard time for making any meaningful pattern correlations.  ( 1 +1 does not equal 2 ) 

Even with the depicted cold air mass arriving it does not hold a candle to the cold anomalies seen in mid November, and that even includes actual air temps. That period was very unusual. The air mass came directly from the pole SSE towards our area.     

The current pattern sure does not lack cold and storm threats, but in general sense favor the Northern Plains, Great Lakes region and the far NE. I look forward to when we reload /transition back to -NAM  state.  Things look to improve once over the moderation period.   

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The MJO is currently being modeled to zip past the warm phases fwiw.  That's a pretty big change from last week.

 

[Buddy1987]

@WinterWxLuvr wasn't really sure where to post this as there's no dedicated header to post under but I thought for folks like yourself and up the 81 corridor would have some interest in the Fri timeframe. Canadian and Nam are spitting out some pretty crazy freezing rain potential. 12z looks ominous even if it's only half the amount. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

26 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@WinterWxLuvr wasn't really sure where to post this as there's no dedicated header to post under but I thought for folks like yourself and up the 81 corridor would have some interest in the Fri timeframe. Canadian and Nam are spitting out some pretty crazy freezing rain potential. 12z looks ominous even if it's only half the amount. 

I really have no interest in freezing rain. It’s a pain 

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I really have no interest in freezing rain. It’s a pain 

To each their own, but I've never understood the fascination with freezing rain. It's just incredibly dangerous. I guess it can look really pretty if it really accumulates? Also have to worry about power issues. Also hate those storms where you can the initial thump of snow to rain. Kinda pointless when it literally washes away in a few hours.