WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Euro has 5 sleet pellets to start for N MD. But GEFS looks nice for the 2nd week of December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Sometime between the 10th and 15th look good on the EPS and GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 EPS more bullish on the +PNA than the GEFS, but GEFS seems to be moving that way. Any +AO really does look quite brief as the PV sloshes back to our side of the pole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 4 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Just curious why you consider the current warming minor (which I consider pretty significant) let alone the projected one in early December that is showing a huge expanse of temps that are off the scale so we have no idea the true warmth. I am looking at the GEFS are you looking elsewhere? Or maybe you are going by the 10 mb winds? I think what a lot of experts “mean” is that the warming isn’t going to have a major impact on the TPV. It’s confusing the way they talk about it because warning is warming and anyone can see the temps and deduce it’s warmer. But when they say a major SSWE they typically mean is it having a major impact to the troposphere. There is a lot of discussion that this current warming isn’t going to do that for various reasons that I don’t care to get into since most of its above my pay grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think what a lot of experts “mean” is that the warming isn’t going to have a major impact on the TPV. It’s confusing the way they talk about it because warning is warming and anyone can see the temps and deduce it’s warmer. But when they say a major SSWE they typically mean is it having a major impact to the troposphere. There is a lot of discussion that this current warming isn’t going to do that for various reasons that I don’t care to get into since most of its above my pay grade. I think another subtle difference in these discussions is the "sudden" component. A SSWE is different than a SWE irt the impacts apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: EPS more bullish on the +PNA than the GEFS, but GEFS seems to be moving that way. Any +AO really does look quite brief as the PV sloshes back to our side of the pole. The pacific base state is almost the opposite of what we had to fight most of last year. Every attempt to shift seems to snap back pretty quickly. On the other side the AO/NAO seems to be variable but that’s not nearly as hostile as most of the last decade. The next week or so is big as that is about when the signs of problems wrt the pac showed up last year. Give me a -epo/+pna pacific base state with a variable not hostile AO/NAO for Dec-Mar and I’ll take my chances! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think another subtle difference in these discussions is the "sudden" component. A SSWE is different than a SWE irt the impacts apparently. I’ve suddenly got a headache 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 18z gfs with the same strong closed ridge over the pole that both the 12z op and ens had. Moves in by day 7/8....looks more robust and has staying power this run. Would be a nice trend.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve suddenly got a headache Not trying to insult anyone because the strat is complicated and there are some sharp people that know a lot about it.... but... I've read plenty of strat analysis over the years and imho we'd be better off ignoring it for the most part. The connection to the trop is too volatile and unreliable. A lot of false hope and/or unexpected outcomes. The SPI (strat posting index) is dead nuts reliable though cuz when the strat gets more attention than the surface we're in a close the blinds pattern nearly 100% of the time. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not trying to insult anyone because the strat is complicated and there are some sharp people that know a lot about it.... but... I've read plenty of strat analysis over the years and imho we'd be better off ignoring it for the most part. The connection to the trop is too volatile and unreliable. A lot of false hope and/or unexpected outcomes. The SPI (strat posting index) is dead nuts reliable though cuz when the strat gets more attention than the surface we're in a close the blinds pattern nearly 100% of the time. Not to mention that it seems equally likely that the strat can actually HURT us instead of helping - if I'm understanding him correctly, @Isotherm tags last year's much-anticipated SSW event as significantly contributing to the MJO hanging out in warm phases. https://www.lightinthestorm.com/page/3 Along that vein, I actually think this winter was too UNSTABLE in a number of ways. The MJO simply did not cease: constant propagation from amplified phase to phase, obviating any stable PNA or cold pattern from becoming locked in, compared to winters in which we stabilize in the colder MJO Nino phases. The negative 50mb QBO and thereafter the massive SSW only aided further to augment the incessant MJO signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 inch of snow for the northern part of the subforum on the latest EPS mean. A little more in NE MD and northern DE. Still not much but heading in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 9 hours ago, JakkelWx said: Uhhh what? Yeah, sorry, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Icon with some ULL snow Sunday morning across N Md fwiw . Where do we live again? i continue to be interested in that. With our elevation we could still get surprise coating. Of the last pathetic vort pass was able to cool the column this one has a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 GFS vortex pass is trending further south and I think the precip shield is under done. Potential for some wet snow even into the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 These highs will muster some mustard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 The canadian has snow from the upper level low/wrap around from the coastal across Pa and into MD. Definitely trended south from its 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 No major changes on the overnight runs (GFS, Euro suites) just pretty much noise from the previous. Did note that we were generally seeing a little better heights to the NW of the closed low as it was moving into the Midwest and then dropping down. May have played a part in seeing a slightly quicker solution seen on the Euro. Then again it could be nothing more then noise. Except for the possibility of a couple flakes/pellets for some initially, the WAA looks to be pretty much on life support. Best shot at this point (given what is currently shown on the models) is the pass of the upper low through the region which is favorable particularly for the N MD/Pa line. Could see instability snow/showers with that feature as it passes through for the generally region and the northern/eastern sections could possibly get into a little wraparound/CCB action as the low departs. That will depend on the placement of the coastal low and the upper in relation to each other and whether a decent NE flow can set up in time. For those looking for a little more the best shot IMO is to see the Coastal low lag behind a little (farther south and west closer to our region) where we can see a little quicker/better interaction between it and the upper low. We did see some improvements in regards to the possible follow up 1 1/2 to 2 days later. Seeing the NS energy/SW dropping farther west and a little deeper out of Canada. This helps to set it up a little better as it crosses through our region. Below we have yesterdays 12Z. What we have is the trough that has reached a neutral state through W MD/Panhandle of WV. Take note of the minor height builds in front. The latest run is now showing the trough reaching a neutral state through eastern Ohio/Western W VA. Also note that we are seeing stronger height builds in front. This setup produces a trough turning neg tilt through the region opposed to the above which features a neutral. As depicted it could possibly produce a period of light snow through the region as it passes through but any impacts from coastal development would be slim to none. Now for those that may be looking for a little more from the above. We probably would want to see a farther west and deeper drop from this SW as it enters the central US. We also want to see greater separation between this SW and the current system we are tracking to allow better height builds in front of the trough. The objective with these two things is to see a sharper deeper trough that is going neg tilt a little quicker. This would allow for better snows as the system passes through. It could also possibly put the coastal into play for at least portions of our region. This is something to keep an eye on but it will be very dependent on what we see as far as the departing system (speed and placement). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Thanks, and Happy Thanksgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Looks like we may need to get through a few days to get any king of handle on what the LR will look like. A lot of spread on the EPS.... AO Check of the spread on the EPO...Could be +4 or could be -6.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 06z euro came in much colder for the WAA precip. Major icing just over the MD line...some place in southern PA went from mid 30s 00z to upper 20s. NAM following along with slightly colder sfc temps than previous run.... Off to stuff myself...Happy Thanksgiving! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 12z nam did it's sleetfest and many get ice NAM'd. Leaning rainy more than icy but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: 12z nam did it's sleetfest and many get ice NAM'd. Leaning rainy more than icy but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Maybe it can trend enough to get mix on late Sunday night/Monday morning. Secondary pops near OC, NJ at GFS 12z as opposed to se of NYC at 6z. Both are further north than the 12z NAM, which is around the Delmarva. Keep trending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 hours ago, poolz1 said: Looks like we may need to get through a few days to get any king of handle on what the LR will look like. A lot of spread on the EPS.... AO Check of the spread on the EPO...Could be +4 or could be -6.... What does the thicker bar in the interior of the overall error bars mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What does the thicker bar in the interior of the overall error bars mean? Probably the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Probably the op Anyway consider me bummed. It is clear the overall message is +AO/+EPO. I had my hopes set on the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What does the thicker bar in the interior of the overall error bars mean? 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Probably the op No, it’s either the 50th or 75th percentile or the first standard deviation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: No, it’s either the 50th or 75th percentile or the first standard deviation. On a standard boxplot it would be the 25th to 75th percentile, so that would be my first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Last 2 runs of the GGEM have snow Monday with the ULL for MD. Gfs has precip but the boundary layer is warm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 36 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Anyway consider me bummed. It is clear the overall message is +AO/+EPO. I had my hopes set on the EPO. Of course I'd much prefer a -ao but the long range doesn't look bad at all anymore. There will likely be a shortlived period of zonal/pac air next week but there's universal agreement on the pna going up and keeping us in a "non-shutout pattern". My gut hunch is the epo will not be hostile either. I'm also not sold on a long duration big nasty +ao setting up shop. A lot of hints being dropped that blocking (of some kind) will be close by. We all want a perfect pattern 24/7 but that's no how it works. Ultimately we just need to spend as much time as possible in a non-shutout pattern and just let simple odds take over. Our area typically needs 4 legit chances per event that actually delivers. Keep the non shutout pattern going, the chances coming, and we'll score. There's nothing worse than a 4-6+ week shutout pattern setting up during met winter. I'm not seeing that threat at all right now and that's a good reason to have a happy weenie 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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