December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So that's what a AO+++++++++++++++++ looks like? Would have never guessed.

Was looking over the strat this morning and I have to wonder if we are on the doorstep of a SSW. The extreme warmth that we will see at 10 mbs which will be centered over the pole is now looking to propagate down to at least the 50 mb level. Have yet to find a site for the 100 mb or 200 mb level to get a read there.

yeah...would love to see what is predicted below 50 also.  As it is, 50mb is on fire over the pole.....

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So that's what a AO+++++++++++++++++ looks like? Would have never guessed.

Was looking over the strat this morning and I have to wonder if we are on the doorstep of a SSW. The extreme warmth that we will see at 10 mbs which will be centered over the pole is now looking to propagate down to at least the 50 mb level. Have yet to find a site for the 100 mb or 200 mb level to get a read there.

This is pretty interesting.

The tercile-category anomaly of the lower-stratospheric polar vortex, defined by the 100 hPa 60°N zonal-mean zonal wind, has been used as a diagnostic for the behaviour in the ‘coupling layer’ between the stratosphere and troposphere.

 https://simonleewx.com/polar-vortex-forecasts/

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This is pretty interesting.

The tercile-category anomaly of the lower-stratospheric polar vortex, defined by the 100 hPa 60°N zonal-mean zonal wind, has been used as a diagnostic for the behaviour in the ‘coupling layer’ between the stratosphere and troposphere.

 https://simonleewx.com/polar-vortex-forecasts/

I was looking at that this morning. Not familiar with it so I didn't want to comment. But you can see the temp spike of the AO as we have the pv crossing the pole. I am guessing the period afterwards may be reflective of warming considering winds slow during a warming phase?

[frd]

21 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

yeah...would love to see what is predicted below 50 also.  As it is, 50mb is on fire over the pole.....

The way things are going right now with the vortex is probably the best outcome, more or less. Speculating that we don't have a major SSW in December,    ( at least that is what the current modeling shows and echoed by some strat experts )  

Sometimes the rare very early season SSW can interfere with things and many times the vortex recovers. 

Having any type of  major SWWE later versus early can possibly extend our winter weather potential. Of course, we would have to be lucky in that respect and be the area of focus.  

And, I know you know this poolz1 ,  but we have already experienced a minor warming and it appears yet another minor warming is anticipated in the first half of December. 

So things are looking good a bit down the line.  

Oh, and for the record,  I feel robust blocking returns and coincides with a split flow pattern, leading to a memorable period of winter storms in January and beyond.

 

 

 

[cbmclean]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am pretty sure we are going to "warm up" by around Dec 7th-10th as we briefly lose the pacific and the TPV is moving across the pole creating a brief but extremely positive AO.  What I am looking at is whether we can flip back cold again sometimes mid December in time for the holidays.  

I have a very bitter memory of one point last year when the mid-December warm-up was looking like it was going to be very brief.  Cut to 11 pm New Years Eve and it was 67 F outside my parent's house.  A nearly perfect storm track went over you guys a few days later and produced only rain.  I think it made Bob Chill physically sick.  Hopefully we don;t get a repeat this year.

[frd]

And yeah, steady as she goes .....

 

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I was looking at that this morning. Not familiar with it so I didn't want to comment. But you can see the temp spike of the AO as we have the pv crossing the pole. I am guessing the period afterwards may be reflective of warming considering winds slow during a warming phase?

That's my general takeaway yes. I was looking for some updated QBO data but this would seem to correlate with whats happening at 10-30 mb level, re- weaker zonal wind propagating downward.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

And, I know you know this poolz1 ,  but we have already experienced a minor warming and it appears yet another minor warming is anticipated in the first half of December. 

 

Just curious why you consider the current warming minor (which I consider pretty significant) let alone the projected one in early December that is showing a huge expanse of temps that are off the scale so we have no idea the true warmth. I am looking at the GEFS are you looking elsewhere? Or maybe you are going by the 10 mb winds?

[CAPE]

@showmethesnow

Here is temp and height data from the EURO. Goes out 10 days and includes 150 mb level.

https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

[WxUSAF]

12z gfs is a smidge faster than 6z, but need more to recover a chance of WAA snow. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z gfs is a smidge faster than 6z, but need more to recover a chance of WAA snow. 

The WAA could come back, and I won’t kick it out of bed if it does, but I’m mildly interested in some snow with the upper low. I know the guidance is pretty dry and warm with that but given that track I find it hard to believe we don’t at least get some instability snow showers. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z gfs is a smidge faster than 6z, but need more to recover a chance of WAA snow. 

Front end fail, and again too warm at the surface for any frozen with the upper low. Idk if that can trend stronger/colder. Generate its own cold air?

[frd]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just curious why you consider the current warming minor (which I consider pretty significant) let alone the projected one in early December that is showing a huge expanse of temps that are off the scale so we have no idea the true warmth. I am looking at the GEFS are you looking elsewhere? Or maybe you are going by the 10 mb winds?

I am looking at zonal winds at 10 mb. 

But, as you mentioned , and also brought up by HM indirectly, is this set-up forecasted by both the Euro and the GFS.  

On a side note, I have not looked today, but hearing the wave 2 follow-up may not be as significant then first thought for early to mid- December. A lot will change moving forward, no worries there yet. 

 

[poolz1]

Basically from 900mb to the surface is above freezing.  Would need to be a thump/convective or start to trend just a bit colder...3 or 4 degrees would do the trick for most.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Front end fail, and again too warm at the surface for any frozen with the upper low. Idk if that can trend stronger/colder. Generate its own cold air?

Have to question whether the GFS bias for cold recently is also coming into play. So though we may get a better looking 500's we still lose the temps.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The WAA could come back, and I won’t kick it out of bed if it does, but I’m mildly interested in some snow with the upper low. I know the guidance is pretty dry and warm with that but given that track I find it hard to believe we don’t at least get some instability snow showers. 

 

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Front end fail, and again too warm at the surface for any frozen with the upper low. Idk if that can trend stronger/colder. Generate its own cold air?

The ULL generates precip, but the boundary layer is just torched. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if snow mixed in, but the temps need major work.

Having the low speed up again to bring the WAA precip back in Saturday isn’t crazy. Only talking like 12-18 hours earlier.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

The ULL generates precip, but the boundary layer is just torched. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if snow mixed in, but the temps need major work.

Having the low speed up again to bring the WAA precip back in Saturday isn’t crazy. Only talking like 12-18 hours earlier.

WAA precip quite often comes in sooner then projected so there is always that.

[showmethesnow]

Looking at the greatest neg anom 850 temps they actually scoot to the south of our region with the 500 low passage. We are left on the northern fringe with very marginal temps. Would be hard to overcome the lower level warmth even with good rates.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Im with ya........and the ull pass is still almost 120 hours out.... I'm just following any trends . 

 

Yea...And often its juicier as we near.  Im rooting for it but Temps are so marginal before hand ...without any dynamics I think it will be tough unless it was a few weeks later in winter but the ull with its associated dynamics rolling through Monday morning/ Afternoon could surprise . And there's also the coastal deform 

With that upper low passage it is hard to give up on this. But the last day and a half runs have been a death by a thousand cuts. 3+ days so there is still time but...

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

CMC looks a bit colder for the WAA and further south with the ull. Fwiw

Pushes the confluence associated with the 50-50 farther west so it holds the cold air in a bit more. 

[poolz1]

Finally an op run that somewhat resembles the idea of blocking returning in the LR.  Obviously, not to be taken literally but this is how the current period of blocking started to be advertised....

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Finally an op run that somewhat resembles the idea of blocking returning in the LR.  Obviously, not to be taken literally but this is how the current period of blocking started to be advertised....

 

I think 99% of us here know not to take ANYTHING in the long range too seriously.  But that said, it's still better to see good runs than bad ones.  And looking at general pattern trends is not the same as looking at a specific synoptic event at day 15.  So I think we should be able to post when something looks good in a general pattern sense and log it into "this is good" evidence without having to always have the disclaimer that we shouldn't take it literally.  I would rather just ignore the random posts we get every so often by some clown telling us not to look at long range guidance.  

[poolz1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I think 99% of us here know not to take ANYTHING in the long range too seriously.  But that said, it's still better to see good runs than bad ones.  And looking at general pattern trends is not the same as looking at a specific synoptic event at day 15.  So I think we should be able to post when something looks good in a general pattern sense and log it into "this is good" evidence without having to always have the disclaimer that we shouldn't take it literally.  I would rather just ignore the random posts we get every so often by some clown telling us not to look at long range guidance.  

Couldnt agree more....I would be more than happy to do away with having to add caveats, grains of salt, etc... 

[showmethesnow]

I am guessing this is what you would call a -AO?

 

[MDstorm]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I am guessing this is what you would call a -AO?

 

That AO look is definitely not “degraded”.  

[cbmclean]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think 99% of us here know not to take ANYTHING in the long range too seriously.  But that said, it's still better to see good runs than bad ones.  And looking at general pattern trends is not the same as looking at a specific synoptic event at day 15.  So I think we should be able to post when something looks good in a general pattern sense and log it into "this is good" evidence without having to always have the disclaimer that we shouldn't take it literally.  I would rather just ignore the random posts we get every so often by some clown telling us not to look at long range guidance.  

I find it confusing why such people hang out in a LR thread.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I am guessing this is what you would call a -AO?

 

I think for now it's also relevant to see what the op GFS does because the GEFS is currently based on a completely different model.  For now we don't have an ensemble suit for the op GFS and so while we definitely cannot put that much stock into a single run at range, its the only thing we have giving us a hint at what it "thinks" att.  

[frd]

Interesting post by Isotherm from 33. 

 

Posted 1 hour ago

Other proxies of northern hemispheric, vortex status indicate the predilection for lower-geopotential heights in the Arctic domain, but particularly the NAO domain in the means, as delineated in my outlook. November 2019 ozone data evinces generally lower concentrations near/over Greenland to the north of Europe.

 

 

 

 

 

When juxtaposed with the mean November climatological ozone, it has generally been less extensive in those domains.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Moreover, the polar vortex area is now running well above normal, circa 30 million km^2.

 

 

 

Expansion in vortex area is generally a precursor / presages tropospheric NAM significant incline.

Again, as Don alluded to above, while aesthetically pleasing stratospheric maps continue to be circulated, it's integral to examine exactly what is transpiring in the troposphere as far as the veridical data. SPV intensity diminution doesn't always correlate directly to tropospheric vortex status. 

[WEATHER53]

There will not be a disfavorable oscillation for December.   Whether it’s nw-n-ne of us  the highs will be there and slide east and not se to form a se ridge. As these highs depart they will be replenished by the next one.

[JakkelWx]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

There will not be a disfavorableble oscillation for December.   Whether it’s nw-n-ne of us  the highs will be there and slide east and not se to form a se ride. As these highs depart they will be replenished by the next one.

Uhhh what?