December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[WxUSAF]

Euro a bit skimpier with the WAA precip than past runs, but does give many some Saturday afternoon snowtv 

[poolz1]

GFS has 3 sub 990 coastal storms during the forecast cycle....and a 4th that is just too far off shore to count.  Lets keep this repetition going....

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro a bit skimpier with the WAA precip than past runs, but does give many some Saturday afternoon snowtv 

How has the eps snowfall/icing looked over recent runs?  I was quite surprised that LWX went with code yellow for western counties.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Judah Cohen's talk should be interesting!

 

[poolz1]

No matter how this euro run turns out it has certainly made moves toward today's trend.  Ridging nosing across southern Can... 

[WxUSAF]

Euro farther south with the transfer and a good ULL track, but still nowhere near the gfs solution.

[MountainGeek]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I hope nobody takes my posts the wrong way. Anyone who is used to my posts knows that I’m a very optimistic person when it comes to our chances, sometimes stupidly so. But seriously, have you ever seen us get s winter storm from a wrapped up low in Nebraska?

I won’t even be here this weekend but I still hope for snow. I want everyone to get some fun. So can anybody give me some hope and a rationale that could support it for this event?

Ummm...weather will do what weather wants to do? 

Given the GFS cold bias I'd like to see a couple other models get on board pretty soon.....otherwise cold rain is the better bet. 

[H2O]

Gentle reminder to keep the banter to a minimum.  And by minimum I mean none.

[LP08]

Expected to see a better surface depiction after seeing this at 500.  Does it have to do with the angle of approach of the ULL?  I know most of out storms have it trek through the VA/NC boarder but this is moving more NW to SE as it crosses the area.

[pasnownut]

23 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Expected to see a better surface depiction after seeing this at 500.  Does it have to do with the angle of approach of the ULL?  I know most of out storms have it trek through the VA/NC boarder but this is moving more NW to SE as it crosses the area.

 

if the trend at 500 continues, i think the surface depiction will latch onto what is happening above and we would see a correction at lower levels.  

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

if the trend at 500 continues, i think the surface depiction will latch onto what is happening above and we would see a correction at lower levels.  

I've always had this question - do models actually suffer from this? I'd assume that each run has no "recollection" of what the prior ran show. Therefore, shouldn't it just show what is modeled regardless of the prior run? 

Mods and shadow mods - this was not intended to be OT. 

[Winter Wizard]

The surface depiction is just noise at this point, especially the GFS which had a totally goofy evolution. The features aloft have largely trended in our favor today in terms of seeing some front end frozen precip. The 500 mb vort depicted in today's ensemble guidance is close to being in a favorable spot for DCA, but would still need to be considerably farther south in order to get anything from the coastal. Otherwise, the best dynamics would take place farther north and it's a congrats SNE. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I've always had this question - do models actually suffer from this? I'd assume that each run has no "recollection" of what the prior ran show. Therefore, shouldn't it just show what is modeled regardless of the prior run? 

Mods and shadow mods - this was not intended to be OT. 

I think it's relevant here.  Don't all operational models use the prior runs in some way or another? 

[Porsche]

EPS snow mean.

[Eskimo Joe]

49 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Expected to see a better surface depiction after seeing this at 500.  Does it have to do with the angle of approach of the ULL?  I know most of out storms have it trek through the VA/NC boarder but this is moving more NW to SE as it crosses the area.

Positively tilted trough is no bueno in these parts.  

[jaydreb]

Would like to see a 50/50 but not a bad look in the long range from EPS.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

43 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Would like to see a 50/50 but not a bad look in the long range from EPS.  

Maybe something can eject out of that little bag in the sw but for the most part looks ns dominant.

Will clippers ever come back. I would like someone who knows to explain where they have gone.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Positively tilted trough is no bueno in these parts.  

Feb 1983 storm had an oblong shaped positive tilt fyi. Was a phase job so a different beast but you are painting with a broad brush. Sometimes they can work out. And with a power block crazy things tend to happen.

[UniversesBelowNormal]

The Pacific pattern is moving.. MJO.. surprising from what I have seen. Switch to heavy +NAO in the medium dampens cold/-NAO chances as a sustainable Winter pattern (N Atlantic SST index). Pacific looks terrible.. Pac jet flowing up through Alaska. 

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, UniversesBelowNormal said:

The Pacific pattern is moving.. MJO.. surprising from what I have seen. Switch to heavy +NAO in the medium dampens cold/-NAO chances as a sustainable Winter pattern. Pacific looks terrible.. Pac jet flowing up through Alaska. 

And did you hear the AO is going ++++++++++++++++++ as well? Fun times.

[clskinsfan]

4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I see this as possibly some light frozen in the beginning, mostly rain, ull thumps the mountains to our west, coastal gives the eastern areas a shot at some wrap around snow, but most of the northern va area is left with next to nothing. Don’t see this as a cad setup either. 
 

Not at all trying to be negative but my “reality” check tells me this is a no chance scenario for at least my local area. Eastern MD possibly but not for most of us.

Not over for us yet. We can score some with the WAA before it shuts off. It really depends on that HP over the top for us. It is rotting rapidly on most of the models Goes from 1038 to 1026 on the high res Euro. Keep it pumping in the cold air a little longer and we could see a couple of inches. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not over for us yet. We can score some with the WAA before it shuts off. It really depends on that HP over the top for us. It is rotting rapidly on most of the models Goes from 1038 to 1026 on the high res Euro. Keep it pumping in the cold air a little longer and we could see a couple of inches. 

I just can’t see us getting that much precip out of this. I’ve been proven wrong before though.

[showmethesnow]

Models are trending favorably for the period shortly after the Dec 2nd event.

Below we have the GEFS 500s from 2 days ago. Notice the deep push southward of the trough. Cold, dry suppressive look.

Here is the surface. Pretty unimpressive for our chances. What sets this look up is that our Dec 2nd storm quickly ejects northward and reinforces the low in northern Canada.

 

Now we have today's run at 500's. Suppression is gone. What we are now seeing is the Dec 2nd storm is taking it's time and rotating up through the 50/50 region. What this is creating is a small bump up of ridging in the east (red arrow) and in response we are seeing NS energy getting bumped southward (black arrow). 

And if you notice the surface we are now seeing low pressures dropping out of Canada and southward compared to 2 days ago which had high pressures.

The GEFS isn't alone. The EPS has gone through same run to run changes these last couple days as well. Below is the current 500's Though not as pronounced you can still see the same features now showing up.

Now I am not calling for a storm at this time. Just noting that the potential has ratcheted up a good bit from just the dry/cold and a possible clipper advertised a couple of days ago.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I just can’t see us getting that much precip out of this. I’ve been proven wrong before though.

HH GFS will probably pull you in.

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

HH GFS will probably pull you in.

LOL, c’mon man. I have acquired a little bit of wisdom.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I think it's relevant here.  Don't all operational models use the prior runs in some way or another? 

I don't believe this is correct. To the best of my knowledge each model run is discrete, based on a set of initial conditions and executed from that point, independent of any previous model cycles. Someone can correct me if i am wrong.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't believe this is correct. To the best of my knowledge each model run is discrete, based on a set of initial conditions and executed from that point, independent of any previous model cycles. Someone can correct me if i am wrong.

Yes, each run is initialized with brand new data then model physics takes it from there. 

[Bob Chill]

Gfs is pretty much the same as the 12z euro

[frd]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Maybe something can eject out of that little bag in the sw but for the most part looks ns dominant.

Will clippers ever come back. I would like someone who knows to explain where they have gone

Some mets are looking for their return this winter. As mentioned a while back,  some pros and certain seasonal winter forecasts have mentioned better odds this winter of Alberta clippers, etc., would love a Manitoba Mauler that cripples the Northern Mid Atlantic. 

As for where have they gone, seems since we had that massive warming in the Pac a few years back , it has been sort of blah, just speculation really.    

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Gfs is pretty much the same as the 12z euro

I like the timing of this run. WAA snow/sleet comes in after dark Saturday. Better chance to get on the board.