pasnownut Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 45 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It still might. This is still a good distance into the future. Looking at last 6 runs of MSLP, yeah i guess it has trended somewhat S and E, but Id think it a bit of a stretch to get it under us. edit....as i keep watching, it may not bee too far off from doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 EPS at the end of its run, while not ideal, says we can step back from the ledge...for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Crappy December looking much less likely vs a couple days ago where I was pretty close to the ledge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Wow, so how early do the " big spenders " get to see the Euro weeklies. Out already, normally I look for 6:00 PM. release. And yes, the trend is your friend ! Looking forward to seeing the progression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 12z EPS is an improvement in the sense that it want from nothin' to something for the weekend threat, but not a ton of members that look like the OP. I'd say there are about 13 members that are (somewhat?) interesting for our subforum, and that is a pretty low bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Well now, liking the looks of this. All I ask for is putting pressure on the vortex. Following your "good vibes " post there @showmethesnow Things look interesting again. Hoping we follow up with wave 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, frd said: Wow, so how early do the " big spenders " get to see the Euro weeklies. Out already, normally I look for 6:00 PM. release. And yes, the trend is your friend ! Looking forward to seeing the progression. It' moves to a +PNA, -EPO pattern without much help on the Atlantic side of things. The "nice" thing is it keeps pushing back that crap pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 Euro/EPS both agree on speeding up the ULL next week and that's prob the main reason the op had waa snow working out. There will be a half decent airmass in front on the ULL and the 50/50 is going to try pretty hard to not allow it to run east out to sea. To get "easy snow" just root for the fastest track possible of the waa shield. The "complicated snow" with the ULL isn't nearly as clear cut. Calendar and gut instinct tell me that we're chasing a phantom with the WAA snow let alone an ULL tracking SE across our area but I can't remember the last time I've seen such a beast of a 50/50. Maybe being uber conservative isn't warranted. At the very least... we are still in the game for something. An inch or 2 of snow during the first week of Dec would calm a few weenies down (like me in particular). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, LP08 said: It' moves to a +PNA, -EPO pattern without much help on the Atlantic side of things. The "nice" thing is it keeps pushing back that crap pattern. It's a logical continuation from the 0z run which was already moving away from the +AO look. Not worth much more than that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's a logical continuation from the 0z run which was already moving away from the +AO look. Not worth much more than that. Exactly. 0z Eps brings back -EPO/+PNA at the end, so it shows it also for week 3. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 I posted this in my home forum but I am thinking (maybe already said here haven't read) that the spike in the AO some guidance is seeing will be short-lived. The reason for the spike imo is the stretching/splitting of the TPV across the AO region and eventually into SE Canada. Once the PV splits or moves chances are the ao returns to negative....neutral at worst. I dont think what we are seeing irt that spike is a pattern flip or something that is permanent. Sure it will fluctuate + and - all winter but I think the panic over a sustained +ao in dec may not be totally warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I posted this in my home forum but I am thinking (maybe already said here haven't read) that the spike in the AO some guidance is seeing will be short-lived. The reason for the spike imo is the stretching/splitting of the TPV across the AO region and eventually into SE Canada. Once the PV splits or moves chances are the ao returns to negative....neutral at worst. I dont think what we are seeing irt that spike is a pattern flip or something that is permanent. Sure it will fluctuate + and - all winter but I think the panic over a sustained +ao in dec may not be totally warranted. Did ya hear? Prince died. Bowie too. Lol jk. Yes, all of that has been discussed here, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Happy Hour GFS NY/NE blizzard is just dispiriting to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 I think it was a month or so ago when I posted about the PDO potentially shifting towards the positive phase if the pattern of troughs in the NE pac verifies. It wasn't as much of a shift as I had hoped but the PDO did move positive. I haven't checked the numerical index yet but visually it's no doubt better than a month ago. If the trend holds up for another month we'll have a legit +PDO and that's always a good thing. We'll see how it goes as Isotherm specifically included a -PDO as part of his winter forecast and one of the reasons he went warm in the east. It was one of the few things I saw potential problems with when I first read his forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Comparing 18z to 12z, seems the redeveloping LP is further sw and somewhat larger at 18z . Am I reading this correctly and if so, does it mean anything significant as to its evolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Comparing 18z to 12z, seems the redeveloping LP is further sw and somewhat larger at 18z . Am I reading this correctly and if so, does it mean anything significant as to its evolution? Unfortunately the track of the upper level low is too far north the entire time. Even though you see a surface low pop right off the coast, all the best dynamics and lift are well north of us. Any phasing will take place north as well so the slp won't blow up with a CCB/deform anywhere near us. Is there a way we can get into legit coastal action? Yes, there is but not unless the upper level low tracks 150-200 miles south through at least southern VA (NC would be better). We have 3 days or so before models will lock into the track of the upper level low so a south trend better start at 0z tonight. Lol I can envision 2 realistic ways we can get measurable snow. If the front running band of waa precip juices up and our column stays good we could get anywhere from an inch to maybe 4-5 inches if the stars align. The second way would be the upper level low to track far enough south so we get dynamically driven instability snow as the upper low passes under us. Wouldn't be a big event but someone could get under a band and get some heavy snowfall for a time. Imho- I don't see any way we can get a legit coastal storm unless there are major changes with the track of the upper low and even then we're playing with fire as these progressions often (even with a good track) love to skip over us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Nice jump south on the 18z GEFS. You can see the difference compared to 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Just a little bit stronger HP over the top next weekend and the WAA could be decent at least. I agree with the rest that the ULL is probably a pipe dream. But we might be able to steal a couple of inches up front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I agree with @Bob Chill that hoping for a snowy deform band like the GFS is currently showing for the NYC-BOS corridor is tilting at windmills. I’m not sure which of the WAA overrunning or the ULL passage is most likely to offer snow chances. Both are likely to be fairly narrow areas and the airmass is marginal in both cases. Today’s euro probably showed max upside. P.S. the track shifting a bit south certainly helps the WAA chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I agree with @Bob Chill that hoping for a snowy deform band like the GFS is currently showing for the NYC-BOS corridor is tilting at windmills. I’m not sure which of the WAA overrunning or the ULL passage is most likely to offer snow chances. Both are likely to be fairly narrow areas and the airmass is marginal in both cases. Today’s euro probably showed max upside. P.S. the track shifting a bit south certainly helps the WAA chances. Yea, I want to believe there's a way we can get into some coastal action but there's too much to overcome without significant changes. 18z gefs actually shifted north with ind member slp in the midwest/OH valley. This plot is not a way we get coastals. The lows to the SE have no energy to work with. The track of the primary would pull a lot of warm air to the mid levels overhead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I agree with @Bob Chill that hoping for a snowy deform band like the GFS is currently showing for the NYC-BOS corridor is tilting at windmills. I’m not sure which of the WAA overrunning or the ULL passage is most likely to offer snow chances. Both are likely to be fairly narrow areas and the airmass is marginal in both cases. Today’s euro probably showed max upside. P.S. the track shifting a bit south certainly helps the WAA chances. Getting that primary further east would also help a great deal. Get in central Missouri instead of Nebraska would be a start. A couple of gfs members do that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Getting that primary further east would also help a great deal. Get in central Missouri instead of Nebraska would be a start. A couple of gfs members do that. UKMET a little better in that department. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 ICON gets the WAA precip in early enough to start as snow, then has a freezing rain event for N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 You would think that 1035 HP on teh 00z GFS at 102 is in a good position for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: You would think that 1035 HP on teh 00z GFS at 102 is in a good position for us... Seems to be more frozen now, so yeah probably a function of that high. But I think it’s iffy to think we get much more than light precip with that low in Omaha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Well... at least the secondary SLP is further SW on the GFS? 18z at 144 its basically over Delmarva, while 00z at 138 its in SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 h5 def moved SW comparing 00z 150 to 18z 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 The mountains eat any ULL precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Pretty good agreement between the GFS CMC and Icon at 144hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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