December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Unless I am looking at the wrong thing, color key looks the same. The mean shows literally nothing in locations where multiple members have snow.

eta- it's only the GEFS, not the EPS.

Nope you’re right. I’m a dum dum and hit the cm instead if in link. It’s just off. Someone should shoot them a message to figure out what the glitch is. If it actually is using median that’s actually probably a more useful tool than the mean which is always skewed by a couple weenie members. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Very ambiguous look towards the end of the EPS run but we have seen worse heading into December.

There is a lot of divergence within the members past day 10.  

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a lot of divergence within the members past day 10.  

I literally just looked at this panel and the first word that came to mind was ambiguous lol.

Just not worth worrying much about how the pattern may or may not evolve beyond 10 days at this point. Plenty of "options".

Actually the GEPS has the best look D15.

[psuhoffman]

@C.A.P.E. @showmethesnow @Bob Chill

One other thing to consider...the mjo/Indian Ocean/tropical pac forcing  doesn’t always drive the bus. But within the last 18 months it largely has correlated well with our patterns. With the effects of most recent wave through cold phases wearing off its likely we fight that for a time. But just because last year it went into warm phase hell and mostly stayed there all winter doesn’t mean it does again. The warm/cold pools around Australia and in the Indian Ocean have shifted since then.  Let’s see how the mjo behaves.  It’s been spending a lot of time in phases that would be good come winter.  If it cycles through the maritime continent regions quickly this time I’m confident we don’t waste much time. If it starts to stall and go ape in phases 4-6 then I will concede our prospects of a good year are probably shot. Even then though I will adjust my expectations and chase whatever scraps we may get. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope you’re right. I’m a dum dum and hit the cm instead if in link. It’s just off. Someone should shoot them a message to figure out what the glitch is. If it actually is using median that’s actually probably a more useful tool than the mean which is always skewed by a couple weenie members. 

I think its a glitch as it seems only the GEFS has the affliction.

[WxUSAF]

There’s a strong standing wave over the West Indian Ocean associated with MJO phase 8 and +IOD. It’s not an MJO wave per se, but might force the forcing to behave that way.

[LP08]

I posted about this yesterday about the new 24-hour precip maps from the EPS.  This is what I was talking about “clusters”.  It’s pretty obvious that the EPS is keying on a system between the 1st-3rd.  Not much in the way of snow however lol.

 

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I posted about this yesterday about the new 24-hour precip maps from the EPS.  This is what I was talking about “clusters”.  It’s pretty obvious that the EPS is keying on a system between the 1st-3rd.  Not much in the way of snow however lol.

 

 

If there is to be a frozen event in our region(other than like Canaan) I don't think this is the one. It would more likely be the period just beyond this when the cold gets entrenched for a few days(maybe) and then it comes down to timing a shortwave and getting it to track underneath before the cold exits. At some point maybe we will see legit NA blocking again and we won't have to worry about absolutely perfect timing.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think its a glitch as it seems only the GEFS has the affliction.

No doubt it’s off. If you add up the members snowfall at DCA it’s mean is about 1.8” yet it shows almost nothing.  

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

No doubt it’s off. If you add up the members snowfall at DCA it’s mean is about 1.8” yet it shows almost nothing.  

Exactly.

[LP08]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If there is to be a frozen event in our region(other than like Canaan) I don't think this is the one. It would more likely be the period just beyond this when the cold gets entrenched for a few days(maybe) and then it comes down to timing a shortwave and getting it to track underneath before the cold exits. At some point maybe we will see legit NA blocking again and we won't have to worry about absolutely perfect timing.

Yeah, didn’t mean to imply that this one would be snow, just if there is a trackable event in the future it would be nice to see that kind of clustering of snowfall. 

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I literally just looked at this panel and the first word that came to mind was ambiguous lol.

Just not worth worrying much about how the pattern may or may not evolve beyond 10 days at this point. Actually the GEPS has the best look D15.

To tell you the truth I am just happy as crap that we aren't seeing a reload of a massive dump into the west., at least yet. We can work with what we are seeing in the upper latitudes at this time in the extended and it can transition quickly there to favorable setup for us. Not even sure I buy into what it is trying to sell us at this time to boot. But a dump dump in the West screws everything up for an somewhat extended period where we are once again struggling to get a favorable wavelength through the CONUS. God help us if we were to lose the EPO as well as then there is a good chance we see the US and Canada flooded with PAC air where we are spending several weeks trying to right that. 

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope you’re right. I’m a dum dum and hit the cm instead if in link. It’s just off. Someone should shoot them a message to figure out what the glitch is. If it actually is using median that’s actually probably a more useful tool than the mean which is always skewed by a couple weenie members. 

I don't even think it is a median. Been following it for awhile now and that doesn't even seem to fit.

[showmethesnow]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. @showmethesnow @Bob Chill

One other thing to consider...the mjo/Indian Ocean/tropical pac forcing  doesn’t always drive the bus. But within the last 18 months it largely has correlated well with our patterns. With the effects of most recent wave through cold phases wearing off its likely we fight that for a time. But just because last year it went into warm phase hell and mostly stayed there all winter doesn’t mean it does again. The warm/cold pools around Australia and in the Indian Ocean have shifted since then.  Let’s see how the mjo behaves.  It’s been spending a lot of time in phases that would be good come winter.  If it cycles through the maritime continent regions quickly this time I’m confident we don’t waste much time. If it starts to stall and go ape in phases 4-6 then I will concede our prospects of a good year are probably shot. Even then though I will adjust my expectations and chase whatever scraps we may get. 

Hadn't look at it in a couple of days but last I checked it was promising.  Going to hang out in the COD for a little while before exiting into 7, gain amplitude and looking as if it wanted cycle back through the cold phases once again. Of course like the CFS, I have found quite often looking at the COD is just a matter of picking the run you like and hugging it because the run to run consistence could be somewhat shotty.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

To tell you the truth I am just happy as crap that we aren't seeing a reload of a massive dump into the west., at least yet. We can work with what we are seeing in the upper latitudes at this time in the extended and it can transition quickly there to favorable setup for us. Not even sure I buy into what it is trying to sell us at this time to boot. But a dump dump in the West screws everything up for an somewhat extended period where we are once again struggling to get a favorable wavelength through the CONUS. God help us if we were to lose the EPO as well as then there is a good chance we see the US and Canada flooded with PAC air where we are spending several weeks trying to right that. 

Verbatim to this point its not bad. I suppose we have been at this game long enough that when a pattern "degrades", we tend to roll it forward anticipating further degradation. I am not worried too much about the advertised +AO/NAO for the short term, as long as we have a -EPO. The latest ens runs are encouraging in that respect, esp the GEFS and GEPS. In the long run, not sure how that scenario works out for us should it become a mainstay. Hopefully things will reshuffle and we won't have 3 months of deep blue up top.

[Amped]

Lol 18z GFS.  Blizzard for Philly at 198hrs.   Somehow it  MillerBs that strong low over the Midwest. Kind of a December 2003 setup. 960mb low over Marthas Vinyard at 210.

[poolz1]

What are the chances we can get that ull under us next weekend?HH gives hope...as usual

[CAPE]

HH GFS says maybe there is a legit chance for the Dec 2nd storm. I have not been too interested in this(still not) for my yard, but for NW areas it might be worth watching. and esp for the highlands. With the h5 look it is possible this takes a more southerly track(coastal redevelopment) than currently depicted.

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

HH GFS says maybe there is a legit chance for the Dec 2nd storm. I have not been too interested in this(still not) for my yard, but for NW areas it might be worth watching. and esp for the highlands. With the h5 look it is possible this takes a more southerly track(coastal redevelopment) than currently depicted.

That period bears watching for sure, especially in the mountains and favored NW areas.  Pretty impressive system verbatim and would agree that the setup could favor a more southernly depiction with the low.  I’m not even ‘worried’ about a possible +AO past D10 when we have a cold start to the month on tap...and lots of volatility on the LR stuff.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

HH GFS says maybe there is a legit chance for the Dec 2nd storm. I have not been too interested in this(still not) for my yard, but for NW areas it might be worth watching. and esp for the highlands. With the h5 look it is possible this takes a more southerly track than currently depicted.

Yep.  HH delivers a huge snow storm for just north of us and up the coast. Get that redevelopment a couple hundted miles south and were in business.

[jaydreb]

1 hour ago, LP08 said:

I posted about this yesterday about the new 24-hour precip maps from the EPS.  This is what I was talking about “clusters”.  It’s pretty obvious that the EPS is keying on a system between the 1st-3rd.  Not much in the way of snow however lol.

 

 

Happy Hour GFS has MECS that annihilates NY and NE.  I really hope it doesn’t happen like that.  

[Heisy]

If this 50/50 low ends up being legit and we see modeling strengthen it as we get closer it certainly wouldn't shock me to get some front end frozen even into the cities. We'll see if any other models hop on this idea as we get closer. 

[Amped]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

2 runs in a row.  Front end fr.....then  this run  transfers even further south near Va beach  . 

Impressive to get a 980MB low over Nebraska to reform off of Atlantic City like that and bring snow to the NW burbs of NYC and PHL  Don't think I've ever seen anything similar happen

[poolz1]

3 strong closed lows pass over/under us in 4 days....I'm sure the gfs has this figured out.  

[showmethesnow]

Dec 2nd. The difference between Maybe and Forgetaboutit.

Here's the Euro 12z at 180 hrs.

Notice the weak heights over top in southern Canada. These are mostly due to energy rotating down towards that region. Not really a good blocking look. Also we are seeing some decent ridging between the 50/50 and the closed low in the central US. This look will not get it done. The storm will cut and cut and cut before we see a transference to its east. If it even decides to do that.

Forgetaboutit...

 

Now here's the maybe. Notice we are seeing much stronger heights in southern Canada thus stronger blocking. The energy that was helping to break down these heights on the Euro is skirting to the east instead of dropping southward. The ridging in the East is much weaker and a good portion of that can be attributed to the storm being quicker creating less separation between it and the 50/50. This is allowing for a quicker breakdown of the eastern heights. In this setup the low will cut only so far before it hits a wall and decides to cut to its south and east towards the boundary. The boundary in this setup is much farther south because of the quicker breakdown of the eastern ridging does not allow that to escape to the north as in the other case. 

MAYBE?

 

This actually isn't such a horrible look, especially the farther north and west you get. That said we are still fighting climo temps to a point so we all know how that goes. Besides 8 days. Plenty of times for us to lose this.

eta: We are also seeing the same differences between the GEFS and the EPS. So put your money on the model you trust the most.

[poolz1]

Stronger 50/50 and west based block holding longer/stronger.  Thats one heck of an ULL coming out of Cali...Fun to think of the possibilities I have to admit.

[showmethesnow]

LOL. Just looked at the 18Z GFS. That baby is oh so close to a legit snow if not even a mauling for the DC/Balt corridor. 6 hour quicker capture of the surface low. A little less separation between the 50/50 and the storm resulting in a little farther south transference of the surface low as the boundary doesn't get dragged up north as quick. Primary gaining less latitude before transferring. Even the model being wrong by 1 or 2 degrees at 850. Any one of these things mean 6+ if not a foot or more. 

Okay, I am done 'ing. Back to our regular scheduled program...

The sky is falling. AO is going positive for the rest of the winter. Big blue balls of death are going to inhabit the pole. SW is going to get dumped into time and time again. 

 

[Bob Chill]

Gefs is north of the op but def shifted towards favoring some kind of transfer and sig precip event. Personally, I despise these kinds of setups. Too much heartbreak...

Could be a forum divider with CAPE on the winning side. I really hope the primary shifts south. I can't recall an event with the primary tracking so far north in the midwest that works out. Philly on the other hand... 

[poolz1]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs is north of the op but def shifted towards favoring some kind of transfer and sig precip event. Personally, I despise these kinds of setups. Too much heartbreak...

Could be a forum divider with CAPE on the winning side. I really hope the primary shifts south. I can't recall an event with the primary tracking so far north in the midwest that works out. Philly on the other hand... 

I thought it was interesting that slp actually developes over ATL --> C NC --> VA capes to 977 over ACY.   Not much difference in surface track from 12z just stronger  reflection along the way.  Shove that ull and the primary south and we could have slp forming in the northern gulf.  Wishful thinking based on a happy hour run I guess....

[Ralph Wiggum]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs is north of the op but def shifted towards favoring some kind of transfer and sig precip event. Personally, I despise these kinds of setups. Too much heartbreak...

Could be a forum divider with CAPE on the winning side. I really hope the primary shifts south. I can't recall an event with the primary tracking so far north in the midwest that works out. Philly on the other hand... 

We have heart breaks of our own with these up here. You say Philly can do ok....up here we say the same that we usually fail but NYC usually does good. And in NYC they say BOS. So, yeah funny how that works. NAO block ftw! C'mon lets do this even if it goes to sh!t afterwards. Need a DC-BOS special to break the ice early.

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We have heart breaks of our own with these up here. You say Philly can do ok....up here we say the same that we usually fail but NYC usually does good. And in NYC they say BOS. So, yeah funny how that works. NAO block ftw! C'mon lets do this even if it goes to sh!t afterwards. Need a DC-BOS special to break the ice early.

And in the SE, we say the whole MA is a land of milk, honey, and snow.