December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Did you notice the ens mean does not seem to jive with the individual members on WB? 

 

Yeah. Not really sure what is up with that. Different algorithm? Would say they are using the median instead of the mean but that doesn't look to jive either.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Yeah. Not really sure what is up with that. Different algorithm? Would say they are using the median instead of the mean but that doesn't look to jive either.

I am still kind of meh about the 'new and improved' site/interface. It's a wash to me. Still lags and then there are things like this.

[Wonderdog]

42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not so much. It's the time period a couple of days before this that is of some interest. This is pretty much a suppressive look where we are locked in the cold. Can score some NS energy dropping down (clippers) but that would probably pretty much be it. 

On that h5 graphic, what should I look at to see the suppressed look?

[Kmlwx]

16 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

On that h5 graphic, what should I look at to see the suppressed look?

Not showme but look at the huge trough in the east and the angle of the height lines. No room for anything to turn up the coast. Obviously it's a mean so it's smoothed but that's a textbook look for too much cold. Like showme said - you could get a white smoke clipper - but there's not going to be a KU with that look. No monsters lumbering up the coast. 

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

On that h5 graphic, what should I look at to see the suppressed look?

Several things here that are showing suppression and for the most part a cold dry look. Notice how tightly packed the height lines are in the east and they extend well down into the south? Sure sign of suppression. Not only that but we are sitting at the base of the trough with a strong NW flow moving in (again the tightly packed height lines). Also we are seeing these height lines running parallel to each other from the central US to well off the coast with no sign of convergence. Convergence is what you want to see for precip and storms. If you look out west you will see where the height lines are converging. If you also look at the anomalies they clue you in as well. We are deep in them as they are broad and extended far to our north as well as the deep south. Also see the deepest anomalies through our region and to our NE which is a good sign we are deep into the cold air mass. This is pretty much the look we see after a storm has moved through and we are now seeing the cold, dry air moving in/moved in. 

 

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Not showme but look at the huge trough in the east and the angle of the height lines. No room for anything to turn up the coast. Obviously it's a mean so it's smoothed but that's a textbook look for too much cold. Like showme said - you could get a white smoke clipper - but there's not going to be a KU with that look. No monsters lumbering up the coast. 

Thanks. Meant to mention that if we saw this look shifted westward where we were riding the front side of the trough it would possibly be a different story.

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Thanks. Meant to mention that if we saw this look shifted westward where we were riding the front side of the trough it would possibly be a different story.

Have learned a ton watching you and Bob Chill and the others post. All thanks to you guys! 

[Wonderdog]

Thanks guys!

[Bob Chill]

Are we nervous yet? Lol

Seeing such a drastic flip of the ao/nao could be a sign that this Nov is the headfake kind and not the early season clue month it can be. 

Opening Dec with a strong +ao is usually a bad omen. Way too early to jump to conclusions but won't lie... seeing all guidance converge on the same idea of a fairly robust +AO to kick off Dec is not a positive development. Entirely possible it all flips back to a blocked look quickly. Not going to overthink anything yet. Prime climo is still a month away.

[Bob Chill]

This is an abrubt regime change. Seasonal/weekly guidance has been showing a +AO Dec for a long time but seasonal guidance isn't exactly reliable.

 

Eta: hot linking images is annoying on this site sometimes. I linked the current image at CPC but it's showing an old one. 

Eta2: here's the current ao gefs ens spread. 

https://imgur.com/a/kGAUv5w

 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Are we nervous yet? Lol

Seeing such a drastic flip of the ao/nao could be a sign that this Nov is the headfake kind and not the early season clue month it can be. 

Opening Dec with a strong +ao is usually a bad omen. Way too early to jump to conclusions but won't lie... seeing all guidance converge on the same idea of a fairly robust +AO to kick off Dec is not a positive development. Entirely possible it all flips back to a blocked look quickly. Not going to overthink anything yet. Prime climo is still a month away.

I mean, it's pretty much been a head fake month the last few years, hasn't it? Lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Are we nervous yet? Lol

Seeing such a drastic flip of the ao/nao could be a sign that this Nov is the headfake kind and not the early season clue month it can be. 

Opening Dec with a strong +ao is usually a bad omen. Way too early to jump to conclusions but won't lie... seeing all guidance converge on the same idea of a fairly robust +AO to kick off Dec is not a positive development. Entirely possible it all flips back to a blocked look quickly. Not going to overthink anything yet. Prime climo is still a month away.

What you dont like seeing all that blue in the AO/NAO regions? Guess now we hope the SSWE can reshuffle things if in fact this was/is the November headfake in play. Probably not a bad thing to roll the roulette wheel with the SPV/TPV if we are relying solely on the EPO. Been down that road before.....cold/dry is not my favored look but like I mentioned earlier I guess cold hanging around is never a bad thing as we know pattern relaxes can yield a front end thump scenario that is if the Atl and HL arent going to play nice.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

What you dont like seeing all that blue in the AO/NAO regions? Guess now we hope the SSWE can reshuffle things if in fact this was/is the November headfake in play. Probably not a bad thing to roll the roulette wheel with the SPV/TPV if we are relying solely on the EPO. Been down that road before.....cold/dry is not my favored look but like I mentioned earlier I guess cold hanging around is never a bad thing as we know pattern relaxes can yield a front end thump scenario that is if the Atl and HL arent going to play nice.

I'm surprised on how violent the flip is and how strong the +ao looks on ens guidance now. Early Dec is usually a fight to get snowfall in the corridor. A -epo driven pattern without help elsewhere is not a good way to run a weeniefest. NW zones are in a much better place. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if we open met winter with a forum divider storm. Lol. 

I'm not stressed at all for the first half of Dec as any snowfall is usually a gift. However, I really don't like seeing features than imply we may have a rough go for an extended period. Guidance isn't just converging on a run of the mill +ao... it's converging on a quite strong +ao. 

[showmethesnow]

And this is the look that could potentially put DEC 1-2nd into play for us.

[showmethesnow]

The Dec 1/2 time frame is starting to get my interest somewhat. At least as much interest as a storm roughly 8 days out can. GFS isn't quite there yet but it is starting to get close and is following the GEFS' lead at this time. It is finally catching onto the idea of blocking over top in Canada that will stop the cutter in its tracks with secondary development to the SE. If this is actually how this plays out it will be highly dependent on where the boundary sets up through our region prior to this redevelopment. Needless to say the farther north and west you are the better your chances.

[Maestrobjwa]

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm surprised on how violent the flip is and how strong the +ao looks on ens guidance now. Early Dec is usually a fight to get snowfall in the corridor. A -epo driven pattern without help elsewhere is not a good way to run a weeniefest. NW zones are in a much better place. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if we open met winter with a forum divider storm. Lol. 

I'm not stressed at all for the first half of Dec as any snowfall is usually a gift. However, I really don't like seeing features than imply we may have a rough go for an extended period. Guidance isn't just converging on a run of the mill +ao... it's converging on a quite strong +ao. 

And @psuhoffman I remember you saying awhile ago that strong +ao Decembers didn't turn into good winters overall...

[frd]

44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm surprised on how violent the flip is and how strong the +ao looks on ens guidance now. Early Dec is usually a fight to get snowfall in the corridor. A -epo driven pattern without help elsewhere is not a good way to run a weeniefest. NW zones are in a much better place. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if we open met winter with a forum divider storm. Lol. 

I'm not stressed at all for the first half of Dec as any snowfall is usually a gift. However, I really don't like seeing features than imply we may have a rough go for an extended period. Guidance isn't just converging on a run of the mill +ao... it's converging on a quite strong +ao. 

Not to mention the previously discussed Modoki Nino  is fading, to a degree, and the presentation in the Pac is declining overall. We may be in for an extended period of poor Pac and poor Atlantic, on top of the changes in the HL. Seems in the last few days medium range models maybe going to route of the seasonal models.  

Of course this can all change, but the trends the last couple of weeks in the Pacific are concerning.  

[CAPE]

Nearly a perfect inversion of our ideal pattern 

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nearly a perfect inversion of our ideal pattern 

Talk about a complete pattern rollover. Hey at least with that look we can set expectations low and there is plenty of upside. Only one way to go....cant get much worse right?

[JakkelWx]

Not buying the sudden change to a positive AO in the long range. We know how awful patterns kept being pushed back about a couple weeks ago. Now the models are in agreement on a cold period for at least the 1st week and maybe the 2nd week of December then it will inevitably turn mild. Wouldn't jump just yet

[CAPE]

The ensembles have been showing a steady move towards a positive AO/NAO. It's really not that sudden.

Anyway, the 12z GEFS looks fine- better actually than the 2 previous runs towards D15. EPO ridge looks more stout. 

[WEATHER53]

Some abnormalities are and have been occurring which make the typical prediction devices not work so well.

where is best place to look at 500 mb maps and predictions?

 

[WxUSAF]

 HM says don’t jump 

 

[CAPE]

Early jumpers can step away from the edge until the next model cycle.

[Chris78]

@C.A.P.E.

I was just going to say the GEFS looks better than the OP. Not great but not the disaster the OP would be at day 15 lol

 Edit - Lol. C.a.p.e beat me to it.

[CAPE]

Some funky ninja action with the last few posts.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Did you notice the ens mean does not seem to jive with the individual members on WB? 

 

 

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah. Not really sure what is up with that. Different algorithm? Would say they are using the median instead of the mean but that doesn't look to jive either.

 

5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am still kind of meh about the 'new and improved' site/interface. It's a wash to me. Still lags and then there are things like this.

The color key is different. When you look at the ensemble mean the gray starts at 1” and the blue starts at 5”. It gives the impression the mean is different from the individual members. Still stupid to change the key that way. Adds confusion unnecessarily. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Are we nervous yet? Lol

Seeing such a drastic flip of the ao/nao could be a sign that this Nov is the headfake kind and not the early season clue month it can be. 

Opening Dec with a strong +ao is usually a bad omen. Way too early to jump to conclusions but won't lie... seeing all guidance converge on the same idea of a fairly robust +AO to kick off Dec is not a positive development. Entirely possible it all flips back to a blocked look quickly. Not going to overthink anything yet. Prime climo is still a month away.

It’s not a good sign. But I’m also not getting too worked up yet for several reasons.

The TPV is going through a major migration and its unknown if it actually sets up shop there or continues and gets displaced into Quebec. We will know soon but as of now it’s not definitive.

The PV continues to take a beating and we will have to see what happens with that but some of the analogs had a +AO period early then a more favorable one later. 

But the biggest reason is I’ve pretty much written off the AO/NAO and am looking for how to win without because for the last 8 years we have been in the worst stretch regarding those 2 features ever and yet DC has had 4 above avg and 4 below avg snowfall years in that span. And region wide our average during that period is about where it should be. So to think a bad AO is doom isn’t true. I have some ideas as to why. For whatever reason the North Pacific has had a tendency for extreme ridging that floods North America with cold at times. That has offset the neee for blocking some. On top of that the tightening of the thermal boundaries (perhaps related to you know what) seems to increase the chances of these progressive waves in epo patterns having some juice to them. And (perhaps due to the same thing) when we do get the rare transient blocking help we seem to score at a higher rate than historically. 

All that said it’s not good to have a positive AO. We have had 3 totally god awful seasons in those 8 and no AO help would open the door to that. So I hope no one thinks I’m saying forget the AO. I guess I’ve just come to accept we are in a prolonged cycle where we will have to find ways to snow without much help there. 

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

The color key is different. When you look at the ensemble mean the gray starts at 1” and the blue starts at 5”. It gives the impression the mean is different from the individual members. Still stupid to change the key that way. Adds confusion unnecessarily. 

Unless I am looking at the wrong thing, color key looks the same. The mean shows literally nothing in locations where multiple members have snow.

eta- it's only the GEFS, not the EPS.

[LP08]

Very ambiguous look towards the end of the EPS run but we have seen worse heading into December.