BlunderStorm Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 With significant post-frontal snow looking increasingly possible for the northern and mid tiers of the Tennessee Valley under current modeling, going forward I figured I'd start ourselves a little thread dedicated to it and the potential early start to the winter season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxrjm Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Our thoughts- some of the higher totals towards the higher elevations in the range. Not sold on the Euro, as I think we'll have near freezing temps BUT if we get a nice period of moderate snow, it could accumulate nicely in spots. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Not much change in the 18z RGEM. A little less totals on the plateau compared to the 12z run. It's just going to depend on how fast the cold arrives and where those heavy bands setup I believe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just saw this thread had opened. MRX basically going with 1/2 inch or less below 2500 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 The 21z 39 hour RAP is going bonkers forum wide. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Still heavy snow in the eastern areas at 39. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Love it...Even if it doesn't work out, a winter thread in November is always a bonus! Hey, if we can get a winter thread in April early next spring...that would give us six months of tracking! My expectations are low on this one. I just want to see some snow showers. Any accumulation is a total bonus this early, but I do like looking at snow accumulation maps though! I may have to put in The Day After Tomorrow to get me fired up!!! I like that movie, not going to lie. My other favorite weather movies are Twister, 2012(more geology), and pretty much any Christmas movie with snow in it. Christmas Vacation and Home Alone are pretty much awesome. Yeah, I am a weather geek and I just can't help it. In for later! Good luck to everyone on getting some early season snow. Have to think folks about 2,000' are sitting pretty good on this one. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Christmas Vacation is the greatest Christmas Comedy of all time, I’ve watched that movie at least a hundred times. Never gets old! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 18z Euro backs off on totals a bit, but not so much as to be disappointing. Getting close to "watch and see model" time I reckon. SREF in one hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 David Aldrich (former WVLT chief met) calling for 1-3" in the central valley....2-5" in the mountains. http://www.captainaccurate.com/blog/my-snow-forecast-mapSent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 MRX forecastSent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I wonder if we'll see an uptick in amounts from MRX from the overnight shift. Used to be for the longest time the overnight shift was a bit more liberal in their forecasts than the day shifts.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Looks like the 00z NAM picked up totals compared to the 18z. It looked like it had some heavy bands setting up for an hour or two. I can see why the MRX is being cautious on their totals though, usually the cold chasing the moisture doesn't work out too well for the valley. Hopefully, it works out for a good chunk of the area this time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 0z GFS says congrats to Knox Co...6.3" lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 0z GFS says congrats to Knox Co...6.3" lol That's insane lol. It does seem like someone has the potential to see some over performing action based on some of the heavy bands the models are showing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 03z RAP doesn't look bad either. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I don't blame MRX either, this would be an unusual event to have that much post frontal snow, everything they mention in AFD is about rapid drying and maybe 2-3 hours of snowfall at best. I guess either the models will blink tomorrow or MRX may have to up totals just in case. I suspect ultimately a winter weather advisory for the Smokies/Wise/NE Mountains, SPS otherwise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 NAM 3k had been by far the most bearish model, even it had a decent uptick with some 3+ inch bands in the middle valley areas north of Nashville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 28 minutes ago, John1122 said: I don't blame MRX either, this would be an unusual event to have that much post frontal snow, everything they mention in AFD is about rapid drying and maybe 2-3 hours of snowfall at best. I guess either the models will blink tomorrow or MRX may have to up totals just in case. I suspect ultimately a winter weather advisory for the Smokies/Wise/NE Mountains, SPS otherwise. So far on obs at the surface behind the front, the dry air is lagging behind by roughly by about 5-6 hrs. My thoughts right now are about an 1" accumulation for central valley north, plateau/foothills Smokies 1"-2", with areas above 1500' (valley/plateau/mtns) having the best chance to over perform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Euro held pretty steady, the models are loving Knox-Sevier Co. GFS and Euro are 4-6 inches in those areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Kind of surprised, MRX went with a WWA for the Plateau, SWVA, and the mountains. I didn't think all those areas would land one and am surprised Knox to Tri didn't if the other areas were getting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 2 hours ago, John1122 said: Kind of surprised, MRX went with a WWA for the Plateau, SWVA, and the mountains. I didn't think all those areas would land one and am surprised Knox to Tri didn't if the other areas were getting one. They seem to be living off history on this one. Most of the time that is a good move but every once and a while different happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Don’t forget the possibilities of a little RH getting trapped in the valley with CAA overrunning. Seen this happen a couple of times but its more typical East of 40/81 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 Well, once we get to around 12-18 hours before an event, that's when I switch over to watch and see mode by beginning to monitor the radar and reported temps. It helps to watch the models but at some point reality has to take precedence. It appears that time will soon arrive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I think everyone is having the same doubts because there’s nothing to account for the extra precip in the valley and mods don’t handle micro climate enhancement all that well. Unless the environment post front is really unstable, I’m having a hard time seeing more than the typical 1” max on the ridge tops in the valley. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 IF what 6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I think everyone is having the same doubts because there’s nothing to account for the extra precip in the valley and mods don’t handle micro climate enhancement all that well. Unless the environment post front is really unstable, I’m having a hard time seeing more than the typical 1” max on the ridge tops in the valley. . What you are saying is true if there is nothing to account for the extra precipitation in the Valley. I was hoping that someone with more knowledge could explain what the models were seeing for the central Valley but if their is no explanation then MRX is making a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 IF what What you are saying is true if there is nothing to account for the extra precipitation in the Valley. I was hoping that someone with more knowledge could explain what the models were seeing for the central Valley but if their is no explanation then MRX is making a good call.I’m not your guy to explain what’s going on with the mods, this board has a lot more smarter people than me on here. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I think somebody will get a nice surprise out of This storm. Models are struggling although it seems like there’s more consistency and unison amongst some of the models this morning though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 IF what What you are saying is true if there is nothing to account for the extra precipitation in the Valley. I was hoping that someone with more knowledge could explain what the models were seeing for the central Valley but if their is no explanation then MRX is making a good call.I think the models are anticipating the cold air to advect faster than we normally see and catching up to the heavier precip before it's done not just the super light stuff that would normally just be sprinkles behind the front. What MRX is counting on is that the cold air doesn't advect fast which is typical climo for these, also accounting for snow melting when it hits the ground as it begins as well. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 We're seeing support for significant moisture behind the front across the board when it comes to models (at least for eastern areas). Can it all be wrong? Maybe, climo is a force to be reckoned with. Perhaps someone could provide some insight? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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