WestMichigan Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Yeah, the lake is p much at flood stage all the time now Yes it is. 2-4 foot waves trigger lakeshore flood advisories around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, WestMichigan said: Yes it is. 2-4 foot waves trigger lakeshore flood advisories around here. Same here off of Huron or St. Clair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 IWX is opting for no advisory at all right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 27 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: IWX is opting for no advisory at all right now They put one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Looking good for 3-5" across the GTA with amounts approaching 6-8" around Hamilton. Depending where the deformation zone sets up will determine what areas of the GTA see closer to 5". As of now it appears to be around the lake and further south towards Niagara. Let it snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: They put one out. Yeah spoke too soon based on the AFD lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 18z NAM just made GRR Advisory look dumb. They could deff go to WSW for 94 counties. I swear if DTX has 2-5" in the WWA I will lose my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 54 minutes ago, Stebo said: Same here off of Huron or St. Clair. The storm a week and a half ago tore up the shoreline up here around the tip of the thumb. Lots of collapsed seawalls and some exposed points of land lost 60 feet of length. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Looks about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Solid afd Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 149 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 .SHORT TERM... 149 PM CST Through Monday night... Primary near term concern is the accumulating snowfall expected tonight into Monday. Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows upper trough over western Canada digging southeast into the northern tier of states. Guidance is in excellent agreement in showing an amplification of this trough as it digs southeast into the northern Plains Monday and Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This trough will dislodge a lobe of record breaking early season Arctic air and drive into the Midwest and our area Monday night into Tuesday. As this trough digs southeastward, tightening geopotential height gradient ahead of the trough will result in a strengthening jet streak downwind of the trough with guidance developing a 140-150kt 250mb jet from the Cornbelt east-northeast into southeast Canada. This will place northern IL and adjacent areas in the favorable right entrance region of the jet, where thermally direct ageostrophic circulation will result in strengthening low-mid level frontogenetical circulation tonight into Monday. The result will be an expansion and some intensification of the swath of precipitation currently over South Dakota into southwest Minnesota. Precipitation should spread into northern IL this evening with thermal profiles initially supporting some rain before a quick change over to snow most areas. The exception will likely be immediately downwind of Lake Michigan where marine influences will hold temps up a bit and delay the change over to snow until after midnight most likely. Forecast vertical cross sections across the tightening thermal gradient show 2 to 3 different f-gen circulations with this band tonight into Monday morning. Generally speaking, omega is not forecast to be overly strong during the event and overall not seeing any strong indications of instability (slant-wise or upright) that would point toward any convective enhancement to the snowfall. None the less, all indications are that there will be an extended period of light to moderate snow, likely resulting in widespread 2-6" accumulations, heaviest along/north of I-88/290 corridors and near the lake in northwest Indiana. Hi-res models continue to suggest there will be a lake enhancement to the snowfall into northeast IL late tonight into early Monday morning, and into northwest IN Monday morning into the afternoon. Initially, the depth of the cold air tonight isn`t terribly great resulting in marginal lake induced equilibrium levels which would certainly support some lake enhancement but suggests the lake enhanced snow won`t get too out of hand. Depth and magnitude of the cold air will be on the increase Monday, resulting in stronger lake induced instability and deeper convection/more vigorous lake enhanced snow. As the lake effect parameters improve the band is expected to become increasing progressive and shifting east into and across northwest Indiana. There are a lot of moving parts that introduce potential errors in our forecast snowfall over the immediate Chicago area and far northwest Indiana. Above freezing temps should result in a portion of the initial QPF advertised in the models not contributing to snow accumulations and either falling as rain or melting snow. Conversely, lake effect is notorious for being fickle and difficult to forecast. Similar set-ups ave been known to over- perform with heavier snowfall rates and totals and this is certainly possible, especially Monday as the instability increases. For now, just mentioned the potential for isolated higher totals (>6") near the lake, but it is possible that areas near the lake could end reaching warning criteria. At this juncture, given the uncertainties, felt an advisory was the reasonable route to go and not get too hung up on the threat for some isolated totals reaching warning criteria (>=6" in 12 hours). Northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with some gusts to 30 mph are expected Monday which could result in some minor blowing and drifting problems in open areas, but winds are expected to be pretty marginal for blowing/drifting. The exception will likely be near the lake, particularly in northwest Indiana where gusts of 35 to 40 mph are likely Monday and should result in a more substantial blowing and drifting problem. - Izzi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 7 hours ago, Powerball said: I've been lurking and waiting to see how long it would take you to get hyped up. It's absurdly early for a snow event this significant (then again, so was the Halloween snow event for Chicago). When's the last time DTW saw 4"+ of snow this early in the season? The top 10 biggest snowstorms in Detroit history (1880) on or before November 12th are: 6.2" Nov 8/9, 1921 6.0" Nov 2/3, 1966 5.7" Nov 6/7, 1951 4.6" Nov 10/11, 1898 4.1" Nov 11, 1984 3.9" Nov 10/11, 1933 3.6" Nov 9/10, 1913 3.4" Nov 11, 1892 3.1" Nov 11/12, 1959 3.0" Nov 9/19, 1894 So as you can see most of these are way back in the day. There have only been 5 snowfalls of 4" or greater this early, and chronologically they go 1984, 1966, 1951, 1921, 1898. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Have to laugh at the 3 county wide area in north central Ohio (of which I am in the dead center of) that breaks up the solid string of winter headlines that runs from Montana to Maine. Can't say I blame CLE for holding off - just shows how tough it is to get it to snow around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Solid afd - Izzi Best in the biz 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Lol at LOT leaving parts of the CWA out of the WWA, while surrounded by advisories from other offices in their areas. But consider the source I guess. Regardless, think 2-3” is a decent bet for here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 Records going to go down again at ORD... Snowiest 11/10 is 0.4" in 1991. Snowiest 11/11 is 1.9" in 1995. It's also on track to be a top 5 snowstorm this early in a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 This is kind of a funny look. Sort of a triple band off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 KIND threw out WWA's for most counties bordering KIWX's zone. Farther south could be a crazy evening commute out of Indy (crazier than normal folks there drive like idiots, worse than ATL) with definite light rain preceding a changeover to snow by the time the rats get let out at 5. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is kind of a funny look. Sort of a triple band off the lake. The Hoosier "H" formation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Snow beginning to develop this evening as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 LE already approaching the MKE shore in SE. WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 18z NAM Kuchera snow ratio snow totals (to hour 33.) There are these super weird holes in the snow accumulation that shouldn't be there. It makes snow disappear off the map. Seriously. Could somebody program these post-processing schemes better? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chinook said: 18z NAM Kuchera snow ratio snow totals (to hour 33.) There are these super weird holes in the snow accumulation that shouldn't be there. It makes snow disappear off the map. Seriously. Could somebody program these post-processing schemes better? How do you get the counties and totals??? I've looked and looked, but can't find them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 18z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, DAWGNKITTEN said: How do you get the counties and totals??? I've looked and looked, but can't find them! Click on regional 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Ugh. Euro off to a good start for the season. Can’t believe we’re talking 3”+ on 11/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: The top 10 biggest snowstorms in Detroit history (1880) on or before November 12th are: 6.2" Nov 8/9, 1921 6.0" Nov 2/3, 1966 5.7" Nov 6/7, 1951 4.6" Nov 10/11, 1898 4.1" Nov 11, 1984 3.9" Nov 10/11, 1933 3.6" Nov 9/10, 1913 3.4" Nov 11, 1892 3.1" Nov 11/12, 1959 3.0" Nov 9/19, 1894 So as you can see most of these are way back in the day. There have only been 5 snowfalls of 4" or greater this early, and chronologically they go 1984, 1966, 1951, 1921, 1898. Guess I missed the 1984 score, and totally forgot 1966 hit Detroit, not only further west. All others were indeed prior to DTW's existence as I figured. Thx for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 18z NAM has me bumping up against 3" by 7 am, and shows 9-10" jack zone for Calhoun & Jackson Cnty's (my work region). Those totals would rival Nov 2-3 1966 for this region's largest early November storm of record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Guess I missed the 1984 score, and totally forgot 1966 hit Detroit, not only further west. All others were indeed prior to DTW's existence as I figured. Thx for posting. 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Guess I missed the 1984 score, and totally forgot 1966 hit Detroit, not only further west. All others were indeed prior to DTW's existence as I figured. Thx for posting. Youre welcome. Another thing, this will be the only storm that is followed by such bitter cold. The other ones seemed to be more typical November type wetter snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I wonder what the record is for consecutive number of days with atleast 1” of snow on the ground for places like Chicago in November. Could be 5 consecutive days this week if all goes well, have to imagine it’s hard to string together too many more than that this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I really dodged a bullet not having to go to Schaumburg for work until Tuesday. Would've been the worst drive ever tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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