hawkeye_wx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z Canadian 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Going to be interesting how this pans out down here. We do get some lake enhancement all the way down here at times but the setup has to be just right and sometimes can add another 2-3 inches in a perfect scenario. The 12Z 3k NAM shows this. I'd feel a lot more confident on anything over 3" down here if this were a night time system but as the timing looks right now I'll go with 3" of sticky here. If the moderate temps during the onset are a bit overdone and we could get some +SN rates of over an 1" an hour as the NAM soundings show and the eastward shifting band off of the lake stays robust I could see us getting upwards of 6. Lot's of and, if's and butt's but thats how we roll down here lol. Still cool to see this this early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Only thing keeping this from being a low end warning criteria snow around here is the warm ground. Maybe we can get some good rates to overcome some of this, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 ~6” is looking like a lock around here.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z UK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 At this point I can say with pretty high confidence that from Chicago through Michigan and across Southern Ontario should get in the 5-7" range with some areas seeing more depending upon pivot points of bands and enhancement off of Michigan Huron and Ontario. Those places could push a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Increasingly optimistic about 4-5" here. Could be a bit of a sluggish start with temps above freezing and not so great precip rates but that lake band should pound and make up for lost time even if fairly transient. Speaking of which, still have some differences on timing that lake enhanced band through the LOT cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 I do not know what is this 2-5" nonsense from GRR is. They are going to have to upgrade those amounts tonight lol. But I live in DTX CWA and I know we will get a WWA for the same even though models are showing way more... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: I do not know what is this 2-5" nonsense from GRR is. They are going to have to upgrade those amounts tonight lol. But I live in DTX CWA and I know we will get a WWA for the same even though models are showing way more... DTX here, too, but we are being told a little over 2", and we're in Lapeer county up near Genessee/Tuscola county line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 I think 3-6” is a lock for the entirety of Cook County. The higher amounts will be in the northwestern part of the county and some lucky spots on the lake where LES is most persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 40 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ~6” is looking like a lock around here. . 14 minutes ago, mimillman said: I think 3-6” is a lock for the entirety of Cook County. The higher amounts will be in the northwestern part of the county and some lucky spots on the lake where LES is most persistent. Yup, definitely potential for a warning criteria jackpot zone if any areas can see overlap between early baroclinic banding and LES, favored NW cook/lake looking most likely. The main show lake band looks p transient on this side of the lake tho so amounts shouldn't get too crazy. Either way, shaping up to be another early season win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 winter storm watches up now for Buffalo-Niagara Falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 42 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: I do not know what is this 2-5" nonsense from GRR is. They are going to have to upgrade those amounts tonight lol. But I live in DTX CWA and I know we will get a WWA for the same even though models are showing way more... This is one (and only one) issue I have with my office. Leaning on american guidance over proven king of consistency Quote The 12Z NAM has come more in line with the consistent ECMWFsolution, increasing confidence for accums in srn Lwr MI Monday morning, although the nrn extent of the appreciable accums and travel impacts is still low confidence given expected sharp cutoff on the nrn edge in FGEN set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Looking like a solid 2-5” event out this way. Would expect to see advisories issued at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Everyone here is whining about not being forecasted enough snow, and I’m over here like....yassssssss!!! I might get an inch on the grass #dontjudgeme #thesouthruinedme 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: Everyone here is whining about not being forecasted enough snow, and I’m over here like....yassssssss!!! I might get an inch on the grass #dontjudgeme #thesouthruinedme I won't care if it's an inch or 10". Either way my dogs are going to love it, and I get to watch it falling down and piling up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 53 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: I do not know what is this 2-5" nonsense from GRR is. They are going to have to upgrade those amounts tonight lol. But I live in DTX CWA and I know we will get a WWA for the same even though models are showing way more... NWS web page now shows a WWA for Grand Rapids, Lansing, Kalamazoo, and a Winter Storm Watch for the Michigan thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 The latest euro has removed a third of the qpf back through Iowa after becoming wetter each of the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Everyone here is whining about not being forecasted enough snow, and I’m over here like....yassssssss!!! I might get an inch on the grass #dontjudgeme #thesouthruinedme So you are living in the Midwest now? For a while I wasn't sure if you were just vacationing. Welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Fun little system to track. Can't believe another quality event so early. Looks like 4-6" looking more likely here. If we can get a slight nudge south 6"+ isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So you are living in the Midwest now? For a while I wasn't sure if you were just vacationing. Welcome. Thank you I’m currently staying near Cleves, Oh and work in Burlington,Ky. It’s been an interesting adjustment so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Fun little system to track. Can't believe another quality event so early. Looks like 4-6" looking more likely here. If we can get a slight nudge south 6"+ isn't out of the question. Yep. Over the last twelve years, I have not had a single 1" snow event before mid November. None. Tonight will be our third 2.5+" event already this season... a very rare occurrence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, Chinook said: NWS web page now shows a WWA for Grand Rapids, Lansing, Kalamazoo, and a Winter Storm Watch for the Michigan thumb. For 2-5". Bad call in my opinion, I just hope they aren't talking DTX into a lower amount WWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 55 minutes ago, mimillman said: I think 3-6” is a lock for the entirety of Cook County. The higher amounts will be in the northwestern part of the county and some lucky spots on the lake where LES is most persistent. The overall read I am getting from the models is that if a stall/slower movement of the band happens, it is more likely to be north of the city in Lake/northern Cook. However it is possible that it is fairly progressive even through that area. It does look progressive through a good chunk of Cook, Lake IN and possibly even Porter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The overall read I am getting from the models is that if a stall/slower movement of the band happens, it is more likely to be north of the city in Lake/northern Cook. However it is possible that it is fairly progressive even through that area. It does look progressive through a good chunk of Cook, Lake IN and possibly even Porter. I think an Advisory is prudent for the entire CWA and depending on how the band looks in the AM, that’s where a warning gets triggered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Pretty bad when a 1012 mb low triggers lakeshore flooding. Pressure gradient is decent though with that incoming high. Lakeshore Hazard Message National Weather Service Chicago IL 928 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 ILZ006-014-102300- /O.CON.KLOT.LS.Y.0017.191111T0300Z-191112T1800Z/ Lake IL-Cook- 928 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...Northeast winds will increase to 30 mph tonight with waves building to 8 feet. Winds will increase to 35 mph Monday as winds shift more northerly with waves building to 10 feet. Winds will shift to the northwest Monday night. * TIMING...Late this evening through late Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Flooding and beach erosion are possible in flood prone and low lying areas along the Lake Michigan shoreline in northeast Illinois. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Lakeshore Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds will generate flooding of low areas along the lakeshore. && $$ INZ001-002-102300- /O.CON.KLOT.LS.A.0001.191111T1200Z-191112T2200Z/ Lake IN-Porter- 928 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...North winds will increase to 35 mph on Monday and then shift to the northwest Monday night. Waves are expected to build to 12 feet. * TIMING...Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Flooding and beach erosion are possible along the Lake Michigan shoreline in northwest Indiana. Freezing spray will also be possible Monday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Lakeshore Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for lakeshore flooding are expected to develop. Residents on or near the shore should take action to protect property...and listen for later statements or warnings. && $$ Kluber 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 1255 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS... ILZ005-006-012>014-022-INZ001-110300- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0021.191111T0600Z-191111T2000Z/ McHenry-Lake IL-Kane-DuPage-Cook-Will-Lake IN- Including the cities of Crystal Lake, Algonquin, Lake in the Hills, McHenry, Woodstock, Cary, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, North Chicago, Highland Park, Mundelein, Gurnee, Round Lake Beach, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream, Addison, Chicago, Humboldt Park, Hyde Park, Lakeview, Lincoln Park, Logan Square, Navy Pier, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, and Merrillville 1255 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with the heaviest accumulations expected over the central and northern portions of the Chicago metropolitan area where isolated higher totals area possible. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Untreated roads will become snow covered and travel difficult. The hazardous conditions will greatly impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty north to northwest winds Monday could result in some minor blowing and drifting snow in open areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com. The latest road conditions for Indiana are available by calling 1-800-261-7623. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Chicago goes for 3-6, GRR's advisory looking worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Yeah, the lake is p much at flood stage all the time now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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