KeenerWx Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Evolution of lake band on HRRR is quite wild. Will be fun to watch it on radar. Should get a brief blitz; 2-3" looks good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Looking at current temps in parts of IL/WI, it seems they are running at or even above the warmer guidance right now. This could cancel out once it precipitates but may be a least a little cause for concern for cutting into amounts where marginal thermal profiles are progged to hang on longer, like around Chicago and into northwest IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looking at current temps in parts of IL/WI, it seems they are running at or even above the warmer guidance right now. This could cancel out once it precipitates but may be a least a little cause for concern for cutting into amounts where marginal thermal profiles are progged to hang on longer, like around Chicago and into northwest IN. @ lake shadow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looking at current temps in parts of IL/WI, it seems they are running at or even above the warmer guidance right now. This could cancel out once it precipitates but may be a least a little cause for concern for cutting into amounts where marginal thermal profiles are progged to hang on longer, like around Chicago and into northwest IN. Looks like precip is breaking out a rad earlier than expected as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 41 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: I wonder what the record is for consecutive number of days with atleast 1” of snow on the ground for places like Chicago in November. Could be 5 consecutive days this week if all goes well, have to imagine it’s hard to string together too many more than that this early in the season. The last 8 days of November 1950 had at least 1" of snow on the ground. That is the longest streak in November. I'd have to imagine there are very few occurrences of 5 days in the mid month timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 -sn northeast of rockford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: @ lake shadow Not calling bust for Chicago (especially at ORD since it's on the northwest fringe of the city), but it's one of those things where if it does come in on the lower side, we will be able to look back and say that there were some early clues. Wild card of course is the lake effect and it could compensate for a warmer start. I don't think I'd make significant changes to amounts if I were LOT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 It's snowing lightly here with decent size flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looking at current temps in parts of IL/WI, it seems they are running at or even above the warmer guidance right now. This could cancel out once it precipitates but may be a least a little cause for concern for cutting into amounts where marginal thermal profiles are progged to hang on longer, like around Chicago and into northwest IN. Cooler drier air moving in quickly here. Already in the lower to mid 30s with dews in the 20s north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Light snow IMBY in DKB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 The 8:10 pm LOT update almost sounds like I could've written it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 12Z NAM talk about an I-70 special lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 8:10 pm LOT update almost sounds like I could've written it, lol. yup. sounds wish washy to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 RN- downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 First hour yielded a DAB.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 33F currently and rain/wet snow mix in Hamilton Ontario. The weather network is calling this a potentially historic snowstorm for the GTA. I think looking back that if this goes as the models predict this could be a nightmare scenario for the GTA. Talking to coworkers and friends/family and they have all said the same thing. Heard a bit of snow coming tomorrow, should probably put the winter tires on soon. They are assuming its a normal run of the mill 1-2" sloppy snow coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 0z NAM and RGEM in lock-step here, bringing 6" SLR/ 7" KCH totals in next 24 hrs. I'd be fine if we could lock that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Think temperature has been stagnant at 40 degrees for close to the last 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 The GFS has initialized about 2 degrees colder than current obs at MDW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Very light snow here temp down to 34. Still a mix at DTW but down to 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 lol at the GFS continuing to up the totals every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 54 minutes ago, Baum said: yup. sounds wish washy to say the least. It takes a special airmass to get noteworthy accumulating snow in the core of the city (not ORD, not MDW) at this time of year while the flow is onshore. In the halloween storm, precip didn't change to snow and start accumulating until the flow was offshore. And it is a pretty good airmass... I mean, we are talking about record cold coming in right behind this. There could eventually be some accumulations in the downtown area while the flow is still onshore but the better bet for more efficient accumulation is definitely as the flow turns more northerly and then west of north. It will be much colder just upstream (I could see ORD being like 27 while downtown is 34) so even a subtle shift in winds will bring that colder air in pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Temperature has dropped below freezing at YYZ. Should help allow the ground to cool for better accumulations when the storm arrives. Latest HRDPS sets up a pretty stout deformation band across the Niagara/Buffalo region. Could definitely see totals approaching 8-12" in this region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 This is is Bananas. Spreading the wealth snowfall events since Oct, 2019. Stack it up November Tall Y'all. Nice to see what we're capable of pulling off this early, even for us challenged near, Lake Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I will be greatly surprised if we get as much as the NAM is forecasting here along the I-70 corridor in central IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Dusting so far on elevated surfaces and grass, roads fine with the temp just a shade above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Already down to 3SM snow at DTW and 34 degrees. Starting right on schedule and starting almost all at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 Started as a bit of rain here at the start, before flipping to snow. Have a dusting so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Not a single flake in Iowa City so far, meanwhile CR has been in a nice band for several hours. I don't understand how I'm always on the wrong side of the cut off. If I'm in CR, it will dump in Iowa City, but if I'm in Iowa City it will dump in CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 HRRR is getting juicier for northern Illinois through southern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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