A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Ride the German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 Basically foreign vs american guidance at this point. RGEM/GGEM/Euro/Icon all have an area of 2-5", locally higher. NAM is DAB, and GFS is pretty close to that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 NAM is really a low outlier as far as qpf. I'd say the GFS sort of splits the difference between the NAM and the foreign models. On another note, starting to get in range of the extended HRRR and RAP runs that go out 36 and 39 hours, respectively, and will be interesting to see how they handle the lake enhanced band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Toss the American guidance obv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I think about 3" is a reasonable starting point around here. At least that is about where I would put the floor. That is factoring in only a very small contribution to totals from the lake band due to concerns about residence time and boundary layer temps, except perhaps as CAA increases and the band is exiting and winds flip a little more offshore. If the band lingers longer than expected and temps aren't an issue, then totals around 5-6" would become more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I think things are trending in the right direction for my area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Euro still solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 hours ago, Frog Town said: Do tell! Showed 8-10" north and south of KTOL but 5" there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Euro still solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I see this event as been very similar to earlier in the week only south and the american models were grossly underdone with that event. This time around the frontogenesis should be even better with a stronger baroclinicity. Atmosphere should be really efficient at wringing out the moisture available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Most of the non-Euro models are quicker to break down the onshore flow/convergence in northeast IL and shift it more into Indiana. One exception is the HRDPS (hi-res RGEM) which handles it a lot like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Looks like the 18z NAM is coming around more towards Euro and Canadian. Looks like a nice 2-3" type event around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 much better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 It is a step but still got a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Deutschland's model came in hot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3" call looking solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 Deutschland's model came in hot.RGEM nice too.American guidance going down, per usual.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 The gfs is just lol bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: RGEM nice too. American guidance going down, per usual. . Yeah 18z GFS trending toward foreign models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Skilling crew jumping on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Tom has clearly had the same graphics guy for like 20 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Tom has clearly had the same graphics guy for like 20 years No reason to change what isn't broken. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Idk, bit busy for my tastes, stebo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: 3" call looking solid Gotta appreciate the rarity of getting multiple snows this early in Chicago. There have only been 3 years when multiple 1"+ snows occurred by 11/15. If we restrict it to 4"+ snows, it has only happened once. 10/29-30/1906: 2.2" ; 11/11-12/1906: 2.1" 11/3/1951: 4.4" ; 11/6-7/1951: 9.3" 11/9/2018: 1.0" ; 11/15/2018: 1.1" 10/30-31/2019: 4.6" ; TBD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Fwiw, the HRRR and RAP are toward the eastern side of the lake with the enhanced band even at 6z Monday. Maybe we can get a model blend of the western and eastern solutions and park it over my head for like 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Lol 18z Euro came in wetter with a wider swath too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Lol 18z Euro came in wetter with a wider swath too. Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Yea I think the 18z euro is pretty much a best case scenario with this type of set up, that is, lacking any more prominent synoptic features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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