weatherbo Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 2 hours ago, bowtie` said: I find it funny that Will only find the snow decent when the piles get higher than the personal vehicles. Less than 100" by January first is just average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: Less than 100" by January first is just average. Didn't the UP have a stretch of BN snowfall winters? Were you up there for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 13 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Didn't the UP have a stretch of BN snowfall winters? Were you up there for them? There's been a lot actually the past several years, although my little corner here has not been under 200" a season since I've lived here. One or two years it was close and the depth only peaked around 30" one year, think it was 2016-17. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, (((Will))) said: Snowing a bit today. Lots to come over the longterm. Cool picture of your four-legged weather vane. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Heading up to the UP Thursday through Sunday. Friday looks a bit blah... but the LES this week should still net a positive snow depth change for the U.P. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Jonger said: Heading up to the UP Thursday through Sunday. Friday looks a bit blah... but the LES this week should still net a positive snow depth change for the U.P. I plan on doing Munising this year in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Heading up to Munising in two weeks with the sleds. Get those big guns firing.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Persistent lake effect snow for the past 24 hours or so has accumulated around 7 inches here. Deepest snow of the season at my house. Picnic table now completely buried. Pattern ahead looks active as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Nice pics. I don't think I've ever seen you post a pic of a sunny day. I know how you despise them. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherbo said: Nice pics. I don't think I've ever seen you post a pic of a sunny day. I know how you despise them. Really enjoy the pics you and Will post, please guys keep posting them. It helps us snow starved trolls, a troll is what the Yooper's call us that live south of the bridge, remember what deep mid winter conditions are supposed to look like north of the 45th parallel. At our place at Higgins Lake which is about 30 miles south of the 45th parallel, we've had a decent amount of snow so far this season but we've had a lot of rain and warm weather in between the snows. Sounds like cooler weather "should" start kicking in latter this week into the weekend and hopefully that allow whatever snow that does fall stay around. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 We may finally see some more lake effect here in Indiana. Haven't seen much since the big event on Veterans Day. The models don't seem overly impressed From the last two IWX forecast discussions: Quote The bottom falls out Saturday night/Sunday as markedly colder air surges into the region. With open water on Lake MI and pronounced delta-T expect to see a prolonged period of Lake Effect Sunday through Tuesday. Blended lake effect snow parameter woefully underdoing LES potential in wake of cold northwest flow and upper teens lake/8H thermal differentials beginning Saturday night and extending into early next week. A more north/south axis with upstream preconditioning could pose a long duration/significant LES event, but must concede muted confidence given long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Wow more than halfway through winter and the LES thread is barely 2 pages still, very sad indeed. It does look like we may have a true LES outbreak beginning Sat Night and lasting through early next week. MLK riders will be happy im sure as we already picked up 4-5 inches since last night , another 6-8"+ from the system Fri-Sat then another 8-12" easy with LES definitely the best it has been all year and likely though remainder of winter. Have about 16-18" OTG now , should hit season high for depth by Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I'm most likely taking my daughter up to Gaylord this weekend for a day of riding. Bought the 2Up seat with handles for the Renegade-X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 19, 2020 Author Share Posted January 19, 2020 This is one of the few cold, snowy, lake-effect days we’ve seen this winter. Light snow off and on with the sun filtered through high clouds. Not really sticking though. Watching a band of snow to the north. If it holds together as it drops south we could get a quick inch or two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 19, 2020 Author Share Posted January 19, 2020 Light to occasionally moderate snow under this lake effect band. Enough to freshen up the ground after we lost some areas of snow due to rain and warmth yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Will, those are beautiful pics. Really captures that mid-winter feel. It was def a beautiful day up here with the sunshine and a high of 20 at my house... had to dig the chimney out. I watched a video from the Tamarack location near Calumet and the snow depth was 54 inches, with a seasonal snow total of 204". Probably one of the snowiest spots in the UP this winter to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 Not really sure where to put this so it'll go here. A rather impressive industrial-enhanced snow band has developed south of Fort Wayne! NWS Northern Indiana @NWSIWX 2h A plume of industrial-enhanced snow has developed on the western side of Fort Wayne, IN. Watch for localized higher snowfall rates and lowered visibility in that area. The associated graphic shows how this process works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Those are cool. Have seen those around Gary before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 hours ago, weatherbo said: Will, those are beautiful pics. Really captures that mid-winter feel. It was def a beautiful day up here with the sunshine and a high of 20 at my house... had to dig the chimney out. I watched a video from the Tamarack location near Calumet and the snow depth was 54 inches, with a seasonal snow total of 204". Probably one of the snowiest spots in the UP this winter to date. I'm around 100" on the year about average surprisingly given the lack of any decent LES outbreaks yet, been a lot of 3-5" events. Many areas are below or barely at normal for the year. UP looking pretty good so far, those cutters earlier in the year really aided many areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 10 hours ago, josh_4184 said: I'm around 100" on the year about average surprisingly given the lack of any decent LES outbreaks yet, been a lot of 3-5" events. Many areas are below or barely at normal for the year. UP looking pretty good so far, those cutters earlier in the year really aided many areas. Those depths for the UP seem off. MQT in negaunee was reporting 37” yesterday morning and Grand Marais I believe has 41” OTG and I’m in excess of 40” here, so idk. Some others further west: Painsdale 51" Kearsarge 46" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Not sure how APX is getting the depths for UP, but its pretty close for my area give a couple inches here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Amazing how few LES events SW Michigan has seen the last 2 or 3 winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Jonger said: Amazing how few LES events SW Michigan has seen the last 2 or 3 winters. Agw is a bitch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Agw is a bitch Can't help yourself, huh? Wouldn't be that concerned about cc and lake effect snow for now. Some of the modeling actually suggests amounts could increase for a while (this has already happened in the past several decades) as the lakes being warmer/ice free for longer helps to counteract warmer airmasses in the means. But you still do need to meet a minimum threshold to trigger les and the pattern hasn't just been a little warmer than avg, it has been very mild in the means for the past couple months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Pretty good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Can't help yourself, huh? Wouldn't be that concerned about cc and lake effect snow for now. Some of the modeling actually suggests amounts could increase for a while (this has already happened in the past several decades) as the lakes being warmer/ice free for longer helps to counteract warmer airmasses in the means. But you still do need to meet a minimum threshold to trigger les and the pattern hasn't just been a little warmer than avg, it has been very mild in the means for the past couple months. Snowfall is absolutely increasing in the Great Lakes. Detroit just finished its snowiest decade on record, and without all the numbers in front of me I imagine most of the Lake belts did as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Snowfall is absolutely increasing in the Great Lakes. Detroit just finished its snowiest decade on record, and without all the numbers in front of me I imagine most of the Lake belts did as well. I would be interested to see how the lake belts are doing if it were broke down by decade. To me it seems like the belts in northern lower MI had more snow back in the 90's but that's just me thinking back with nothing to base that off of other then snowmobiling up there since the mid 80's and always trying to find the deepest snow to play in when we could. The UP MI belts seem like they haven't changed much over the years to me, they pretty much always have great snow in the areas I have been going to for the past 30+ years. The SW MI belts seem like they have seen a decline to me, growing up my best friend had family in Paw Paw that we would go visit often and I remember them having crazy deep snow a lot of the time when back here in SE MI we would have very little. Now it seems like they don't get all that much more then what we get out this way. A big question I would ask is have the measuring techniques of the snow changed over the years at all and could that have a effect on the overall increases in the long term averages? Like measuring 2x a day verse 1x or certain times of the day type thing. I have no idea how "official" measuring is done but have wondered if the techniques have changed at all over the years could that have any effect on the long term averages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 hours ago, slow poke said: I would be interested to see how the lake belts are doing if it were broke down by decade. To me it seems like the belts in northern lower MI had more snow back in the 90's but that's just me thinking back with nothing to base that off of other then snowmobiling up there since the mid 80's and always trying to find the deepest snow to play in when we could. The UP MI belts seem like they haven't changed much over the years to me, they pretty much always have great snow in the areas I have been going to for the past 30+ years. The SW MI belts seem like they have seen a decline to me, growing up my best friend had family in Paw Paw that we would go visit often and I remember them having crazy deep snow a lot of the time when back here in SE MI we would have very little. Now it seems like they don't get all that much more then what we get out this way. A big question I would ask is have the measuring techniques of the snow changed over the years at all and could that have a effect on the overall increases in the long term averages? Like measuring 2x a day verse 1x or certain times of the day type thing. I have no idea how "official" measuring is done but have wondered if the techniques have changed at all over the years could that have any effect on the long term averages? It would be a lot of work to get all the data, too bad we dont have climo experts in the area. As far as measurment techniques, i remember years ago i asked a local met about the every 6 hours method and he stated that its been in place as long as he can remember (1960s) but for first order stations the practice has been in place as long as is remembered. However If a lake belt location only measured once a day that would definitely show up as less, as so much of their snow is super fluffy. So what you would need to do is look at a first order station. Coops will have more errors and variance. Another way to do it is to look at daily snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/lake-effect-snow-paradox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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