sbnwx85 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 In light of what appears to be a potentially impressive lake effect event in parts of the Great Lakes early next week I figured now is a good time to start up the region's lake effect thread for the winter. IWX hinting at the event beginning Monday. Quote 850 mb temps in the wake of the cold front will drop to -15 to -18C, with cyclonic flow lingering aloft through at least Wednesday. This will set us up for (potentially significant) lake effect snow in north-northwest wind favored regions. Temperatures will be much colder, with highs in the 20s and low 30s. Lows will be in the teens and low 20s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 A fun graphical interpretation of the event early next week from the TV station I work at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Parameters look good to excellent downwind of Lake Michigan for a rather prolonged time. Should peak early in the week though as that graphic mentioned. The South Bend area or somewhere in between there and here looks to be primed. Impressive to see the global models trying to pick out mesolow development at this distance. That could play havoc with the wind fields and cause the band(s) to curl west at times to the point where it could affect my area and/or possibly even the IL/WI shore for a time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Eerily similar month in progress to Nov '13 when my work place was ground zero for a similar LES set-up 11/12/13. Analog para's are getting spooky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I liked it better earlier in the week when the winds were more NW to WNW. Oh well, someone is going to get a lot of snow out of this. It is still early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 12z GEM has a mesolow for the ages rolling down Lake Michigan. Not buying these model output verbatim of course but mesolow development does seem likely in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: 12z GEM has a mesolow for the ages rolling down Lake Michigan. Not buying these model output verbatim of course but mesolow development does seem likely in this setup. Looking like it. That 17" death band I experienced was unforgettable. Has to rank at or near the top for best rates/lowest vis personally witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Need to get a winter home on the lake in St Joseph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 12 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Need to get a winter home on the lake in St Joseph Wish my house was just a little closer to St. Joseph than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Those homes high up on the dunes overlooking the lake during a death band must be tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 East snow belts sure have been cashing in lately. Later today into tonight when winds go more N/NNW, it should begin to snow heavier again here. Meanwhile, overnight it cleared and with around 10" on the ground, the temp has fallen to 8 and probably no higher than 15 for a high today. Hard to believe Halloween was 12 days ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 HRRR showing poundtown for Berrien Co, MI and St. Joseph County, IN overnight. Single band that wobbles for about 12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said: HRRR showing poundtown for Berrien Co, MI and St. Joseph County, IN overnight. Single band that wobbles for about 12 hours. My daughter is supposed to drive from FWA to SBN tomorrow for business. After seeing the HRRR I told her proclaim trip cancel. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 Latest AFD from IWX: Current expectations are for decent inland penetration of banding tonight given strong northerly flow connected in with long axis of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. With that said, hard to say if/where banding will hold in for a decent time for counties just south and east of the Winter Storm Warning (Elkhart/Kosciusko/Marshall/Fulton IN/Starke). Reduced visibilities, cold sfc temps, and additional accums will likely allow at least advisory level impacts to persist beyond the current 05z expiration in these counties. An upgrade to warning cannot be ruled out in Marshall/Starke/Elkhart counties if the southern end of more dominant band settles in for a time. Much higher confidence for additional 6" plus snow amounts and intense 1-2" snowfall rates in areas currently under a Winter Storm Warning. Latest guidance continues to suggest Berrien, far western Cass MI and St Joseph IN in line for longest duration in intense lake plume where localized totals will likely exceed a foot. Winds will also pick up on the western fringe which could create some blowing/drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 Lake effect band has come ashore in St. Joseph, MI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Moderate snow at the moment. Hoping the band stops its eastward progression and becomes stationary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 The band really getting its act together now. Probably some 2-3 inch per hour rates in there. My backyard went from 3 inches with the system to a total of 5.7” now. Still snowing but band is drifting East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Sitting between bands now. The secondary band in Western St. Joseph County is very intense. I wonder if that will become the dominant band and move East. Dynamics must be incredible for lake effect snows right now. Sitting at 6.3” overall. Hoping the next band swings through overnight for another couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 It looks like Indystorm's old stomping grounds was ground zero for the Indiana portion of the storm/LES. That area was still stacking after those reports. ...ELKHART COUNTY... 1 SW GOSHEN 13.0 IN 0800 AM 11/12 41.57N/85.85W ELKHART 12.0 IN 0800 AM 11/12 41.69N/85.97W 3 WSW GOSHEN 10.6 IN 0700 AM 11/12 41.56N/85.89W 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Dunlap (between Goshen and Elkhart) had a report of 18 inches. I think that's the jackpot for Indiana for the event. I don't know of a time a lake effect event crushed Elkhart County like this. I ended with 6.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 It's times like this that make me regret not living farther east downwind of the lake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 6 hours ago, IWXwx said: It looks like Indystorm's old stomping grounds was ground zero for the Indiana portion of the storm/LES. That area was still stacking after those reports. ...ELKHART COUNTY... 1 SW GOSHEN 13.0 IN 0800 AM 11/12 41.57N/85.85W ELKHART 12.0 IN 0800 AM 11/12 41.69N/85.97W 3 WSW GOSHEN 10.6 IN 0700 AM 11/12 41.56N/85.89W I must be getting old....I'll settle for the 2.5 inches I got here at Fortville instead of that 18 inches at Dunlap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Big chunk of the lake belt areas in MI are really starting to have it pile up. My cousin's place half way between Paradise and White fish point in the UP has 30" on the ground as of this morning according to his snow removal guy. Looks like these areas are picking up right where they left off last spring with a deep snow pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 This thread kind of died. Picked up 7.2" from todays lake effect event. Had some snowfall rates above 2" per Few pics From NYS thruway 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This thread kind of died. Picked up 7.2" from todays lake effect event. Had some snowfall rates above 2" per Few pics From NYS thruway Thanks for reminding me to not drive the ThruWay during winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Hey All Been away for quite a while, been pretty busy with work/family. Weather sure has been pretty ho hum in the snow and LES especially my area, most systems have been about 75 miles to far to my NW and haven't had much LES. Looks like a picked a great time to sell the snowmobiles last summer. You know its been a bad start when the LES thread is still on the same first page and its almost Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Hey All Been away for quite a while, been pretty busy with work/family. Weather sure has been pretty ho hum in the snow and LES especially my area, most systems have been about 75 miles to far to my NW and haven't had much LES. Looks like a picked a great time to sell the snowmobiles last summer. You know its been a bad start when the LES thread is still on the same first page and its almost Jan. Was last Dec any better up your way?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Was last Dec any better up your way?? No, probably about the same, didn't see any real meaningful snows (By Gaylord Stds) until Jan. We did pickup about 10" the other night but besides that just been a lot of rain/sleet to snow on the back end. Although we are around average for the year but certainly hasn't felt like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 I find it funny that Will only find the snow decent when the piles get higher than the personal vehicles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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