RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, jwilson said: Was just about to say the NAM finds a new way to screw us by pulling the low too far west. It trains the good snow to our west and northwest while dryslotting AGH (and points SE) for a while. Its totals are overdone, but that general idea is trouble. I thought the 18z GFS took a step to the NW too. In this pattern the North trend is real, nothing to keep the storm from cutting if it amplifies fast enough. It would suck to miss out on the only real threat to the NW after missing so many to the SE the last couple of years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 I might end up being wrong with Friday morning, but I still would rather be on the eastern edge of the trowel. With the fast flow minimizing qpf, we need to maximize our rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Looking like 1-3 based on overnight model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 50 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Looking like 1-3 based on overnight model runs. Yep sounds about right. Still possible for 2-4 or so. It looks like rush hour could be dicey tomorrow morning. Heaviest snow will be early am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6Z NAM looks better than the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6z Rgem also looks good for 2-4 maybe 5 but it looks more like the NAM atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 I'm still pretty confident we see our biggest synoptic snow in the metro. (thats not saying much) What's interesting is where that heavy band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 RGEM has a pretty stout band of heavy snow that comes close to the metro. This could be an interesting storm. Maybe at the least we get to see some serious rates for a short time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Based on the 12Z suite, I'd say the odds *look* decent for at least a 2" event in the metro area, which would probably be the biggest storm for most - if not all - of us. I'm only at ~6" on the season versus the NWS measurement. For right now, the NWS has PIT at a 74% chance of 2" or more. 44% chance at 4" or more. 1% chance at >12" (lol). Given the intense convection and fast storm movement we'll see, there's also a high bust potential for those areas that fall outside of the best convective bands (or get stuck under divergence). It will likely come down to a nowcast event. Reminds me of tracking Miller B's off the coast. A lot of times you'd have wildly different snow totals just a few miles apart because of the convergence/divergence and banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 GFS has us at 4 inches. I wouldn't be mad at that to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The NWS has our low end chance at 1", expected at 1" (), and the high end potential at 6"! () Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Canadian scores a nice 5 for our area. It can go either way but we are in the game. Rush hour tomorrow may be are heaviest snow burst in years. Here’s hoping unless your driving in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Hi rez HRDPS has an insane band come close the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 And finally before I actually do something productive. The UKmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 So, what time is that heaviest band looking to come through, at least right now? After 7am, I hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Interesting, all 12z (GFS/NAM/GEM/UKEMT) models are showing more of a 3-5 inch type deal. Not sure I buy it just yet, maybe just snake bitten but the 6z Euro would seem to agree. I'll be curious to see if it holds on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 GEFS mean at 12Z was 5" for PIT. That's robust. Hard to trust it, though. We should have some white rain, but I don't know for how long. SREF mean is 2.5". 4 minutes ago, Ahoff said: So, what time is that heaviest band looking to come through, at least right now? After 7am, I hope? High-res NAM has changeover around 2-3 AM. GFS is slower, closer to 6-7 AM. Canadian agrees. Bunch of mesoscale models are 4-5 AM, including SREFS, HRRR, ARW. RGEM has the bulk of snow over by 8 AM. In other words, there's a spread, but I would be more inclined to trust the faster solutions. Chances favor the snow rates are at or past peak at 7 AM. Messy commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 EURO still looks good but the heaviest band is just too the east. It's close to an overachiever but we may just miss out on the heaviest rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Why time do all the different models run? (The main ones?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Precipitation, mainly falling as rain, will continue through the evening though some transition to snow is already occurring as noted by northeast OH/northwestern PA web-cameras and surface observations. Northwest flow has kept temperatures cooler than anticipated over much of the region, which will in turn allow for the cool down to happen a bit quicker overnight. This could have implications on the changeover to snow. The upper trough will lift and take on a slight negative tilt as it interacts with northern stream energy. With additional support from a coupled jet and strengthening cold advection, there appears to be a window where we could see rather efficient snowfall rates toward morning. Considering the time frame, during the morning commute, and dynamics that are present, think the headlines may be appropriate given potential impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 41 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said: Why time do all the different models run? (The main ones?). The 12z runs are all done, and come in at varying times starting around 9am roughly in this order NAM, GFS, GEM, UKMET, Euro concluding around 2:00pm. For pay services you can get the stuff sooner but that the general gist of timing. 00z runs work the same, just starting around 9pm instead of 9am. There are 18z and 6z runs too of some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Mailman said: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Precipitation, mainly falling as rain, will continue through the evening though some transition to snow is already occurring as noted by northeast OH/northwestern PA web-cameras and surface observations. Northwest flow has kept temperatures cooler than anticipated over much of the region, which will in turn allow for the cool down to happen a bit quicker overnight. This could have implications on the changeover to snow. The upper trough will lift and take on a slight negative tilt as it interacts with northern stream energy. With additional support from a coupled jet and strengthening cold advection, there appears to be a window where we could see rather efficient snowfall rates toward morning. Considering the time frame, during the morning commute, and dynamics that are present, think the headlines may be appropriate given potential impacts. I was in Syracuse last weekend when they were prepping for a complicated situation as far as snow/ice vs rain. The level of detail they go into in their discussions puts the Pittsburgh office to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: EURO still looks good but the heaviest band is just too the east. It's close to an overachiever but we may just miss out on the heaviest rates. Yeah, all guidance is agreeing on a general 3-5 inches. You probably have to cut that to account for initial melting but not bad to see something improve as we get closer. Not saying it will happen, but the storms that are the most likely to bust high are ones that keep getting better as we close in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah, all guidance is agreeing on a general 3-5 inches. You probably have to cut that to account for initial melting but not bad to see something improve as we get closer. Not saying it will happen, but the storms that are the most likely to bust high are ones that keep getting better as we close in. The dynamics involved mean this storm has high bust potential either direction. The heaviest band has swung from the west back to the east of us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Yea it does look like most guidance has the heaviest band just too the east of the metro. Hopefully that is wrong and we get the heavy bands. I'd set my expectations low and and hope for a bust. I'm thinking this is more 2 or 3 than 4-6. With those heavy bands anything can happen. It will just be nice to not to able to see the grass for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Advisory is up. OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-070400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0005.200207T0500Z-200207T1800Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke- Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz, Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Uniontown, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown 258 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Rain changing quickly to snow, with a period of heavy snow around the morning commute. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest and western Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Friday. Heaviest snow will fall between 4 am and 9am. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 44 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I was in Syracuse last weekend when they were prepping for a complicated situation as far as snow/ice vs rain. The level of detail they go into in their discussions puts the Pittsburgh office to shame. The fact that our microclimate is very complex as well, means they should be a bit more detailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, jwilson said: The dynamics involved mean this storm has high bust potential either direction. The heaviest band has swung from the west back to the east of us today. Good point, the same variable that could give someone's yard the jackpot could also be the dagger through the heart. When I say jackpot I'm thinking 5 would the most anyone would get. 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Yea it does look like most guidance has the heaviest band just too the east of the metro. Hopefully that is wrong and we get the heavy bands. I'd set my expectations low and and hope for a bust. I'm thinking this is more 2 or 3 than 4-6. With those heavy bands anything can happen. It will just be nice to not to able to see the grass for a change. My gut says I should set my expectations at 2, with the progressive nature of this and the fact it doesn't really wind up until its North of us keeps the upside in check. But hey, it's going to be seasonable tomorrow and Saturday so if we cover the grass it should stick around for a day or 2, and if it busts low at least we had a legit threat to track in under 48 hours which is a first really for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Not familiar with the HRDPS accuracy, but it shows rates in spots as hi as 3"/hr early tomorrow morning. Could be some brief 0.1-0.2 mile visibility on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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