Pittsburgh PA Area Rest of fall and Winter 2019-2020 thread

[meatwad]

[Rd9108]

8 minutes ago, meatwad said:

Good sign this far out. One huge thing we have going for us is peak climo. We don't need an impressive airness to snow. 

[MikeB_01]

The 7th best analog for the 12z GFS is Feb 16-18 2003. I'd take it

[Ahoff]

Ron Smiley, on KDKA, said this next system would start as rain Friday, transition to snow Saturday, and last through Monday, but that he thinks over those three days with snow we could get...1 inch.  1 whole inch with snow falling over two or so days!

[PghPirates27]

Smiley must be using the GFS unless I’m wrong it showed us at <1”

[Ahoff]

34 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Smiley must be using the GFS unless I’m wrong it showed us at <1”

Almost three days of snow, for next to nothing is miserable.

[Rd9108]

Most local Mets always err on the side of caution. As the date approaches they adjust the forecast. Don't get discouraged by Smiley forecasting an inch. We are still a few days away. Bernie Rayno always mentions the windshield wiper effect. Models move the solutions and then correct back and then sometimes overcorrect. What we see today might not necessarily be the final solution. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Almost three days of snow, for next to nothing is miserable.

It's not really 3 days of snow. GFS continue to drive the Primary to far North and delay the transition. This does 2 things, what precip we do get is primarily rain due to the typical issues we have with a primary low that goes north and west of us that is further complicated by the marginal antecedent air mass so you get the resulting snowfall forecast:

Second issue is due to the primary going so far NW of us we get caught in the dryslot between the transfer, so total precipitation over our area really isn't that impressive (about .25 - .35 ) until you get into the ridges and central PA.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

It's not really 3 days of snow. GFS continue to drive the Primary to far North and delay the transition. This does 2 things, what precip we do get is primarily rain due to the typical issues we have with a primary low that goes north and west of us that is further complicated by the marginal antecedent air mass so you get the resulting snowfall forecast:

Second issue is due to the primary going so far NW of us we get caught in the dryslot between the transfer, so total precipitation over our area really isn't that impressive (about .25 - .35 ) until you get into the ridges and central PA.

The three days was just what he was saying.  I doubt we'd get that many days of snow, unless it was just flurries with the occasional shower, like the last few days.  At least there is still time to figure it out, and hope for some snow.

[Rd9108]

GEFS now suck balls for our area. Not a single good hit. This is looking like a miss unless we can get some positive trends. 

[Rd9108]

The consensus at this range is pretty unfortunate. Every model shows our area as the screw area. 

[dj3]

The above map is pretty hilarious. Could not draw it up worse. 

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, dj3 said:

The above map is pretty hilarious. Could not draw it up worse. 

Agreed and the UK, GEFS, EURO, and GFS all agree. We need some major changes with the primary or else its gonna be the same thing as last time. I always laugh when people cry about getting screwed on snow. They have no idea what it means getting screwed. 

[dj3]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Agreed and the UK, GEFS, EURO, and GFS all agree. We need some major changes with the primary or else its gonna be the same thing as last time. I always laugh when people cry about getting screwed on snow. They have no idea what it means getting screwed. 

The whole evolution looks too much like a late blooming miller B to me. The primary even though weak just sorta meanders in Indiana before transferring too far north. Pretty crazy the cutoff to our east, I wonder if it actually plays out like shown. 

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, dj3 said:

The whole evolution looks too much like a late blooming miller B to me. The primary even though weak just sorta meanders in Indiana before transferring too far north. Pretty crazy the cutoff to our east, I wonder if it actually plays out like shown. 

Models have always struggled with the environment around and under closed off H5 storms. Not sure the models have a good handle on this one yet. Definitely not saying this one ends up as a hit for us, but still think we need to see some development. Energy from the system is just now coming over the land and I think the 00z run tonight might be important for the movement of the trend. If it continues to show no snow, then we are where we usually are. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow back on the map tonight. 

Regardless of what this storm does, no one, is getting 12+ from this storm. That includes anyone in the northeast. This pattern and its progressive nature just don't allow the storm to move slow enough to pile on some large numbers. Too fast 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

15 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Models have always struggled with the environment around and under closed off H5 storms. Not sure the models have a good handle on this one yet. Definitely not saying this one ends up as a hit for us, but still think we need to see some development. Energy from the system is just now coming over the land and I think the 00z run tonight might be important for the movement of the trend. If it continues to show no snow, then we are where we usually are. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow back on the map tonight. 

Regardless of what this storm does, no one, is getting 12+ from this storm. That includes anyone in the northeast. This pattern and its progressive nature just don't allow the storm to move slow enough to pile on some large numbers. Too fast 

I agree, it's highly unlikely the models have this nailed down. That doesn't mean the changes that happen from now until verification benefit us though. It could be off by 400 miles but if its 400 miles further north the sensible weather is still rain for us. The pattern as a whole is just devoid of cold air, its all locked up over the pole with the uber +AO +NAO +EPO. The long range looks bleak now for snow chances as of today, I think the GFS has like 1 inch of snow through 384 hours for our area, that's about as bad as it can get for mid Jan - early Feb.

At some point you'd think the rubber band has to snap with some of these indices, if it does hopefully it's in early Feb but the longer this drags on the more I start thinking it could be March and we go from 34-38 degree rain storms to 38-44 degree rain storms for March and April. Typically flips in the AO/NAO region just show up on models out of nowhere so if its going to happen at some point it may just show up and start moving closer in time. I admit to having little skill in the long range stuff though so reader beware lol

[MikeB_01]

Anyone check the Canadian today? 12z is supposed to be on the newly upgraded supercomputer.


https://dd.meteo.gc.ca/doc/genots/2020/01/17/NOCN03_CWAO_171911___36984


.

[Rd9108]

Well gfs didnt change much but the primary didn't get as far north atleast, but it was still too late. If this thing gets to our latitude before transfer it will not snow. 

[MikeB_01]

BIG changes on the NAM.

[MikeB_01]

Granted, the result didn't matter too much. The storm still ended up off to the north due to alot of the noise and congestion out in front of it, but i think this is a good step. 

[MikeB_01]

Took a look at the UL WV tonight. Can start to get an idea of all of the pieces and how they are working together. Also give you an idea about why this is probably going to end up warmer than what we need it to be.

[KPITSnow]

On 1/18/2020 at 7:10 PM, CoraopolisWx said:

We actually had a half way decent setup for an advisory level snow. 
Had this been more of a SWFE, we could have avoided that long break in the precip. 

Yep. We lost about 5 hours of precipitation between say 3 or 4 and 9. Could have probably worked out a good 3-5 inches 

[KPITSnow]

I’m supposed to go to Syracuse this Saturday...my luck is it will rain here, snow there, and I won’t be able to go. 

[PghPirates27]

welp, looks like the next 3 weeks are shot from what i see high's in the 40's.

I'll check back maybe mid-February. I am just disgusted.

[dj3]

The 12z GFS has a perfect miller A track around day 9-10 and we still manage to rain. I was reading a thread psuhoffman started in the mid atlantic forum discussing past borderline events and it was pretty depressing. I'm not sure if it is just a recent run of bad luck or if there is a longer term trend related to a changing climate but it frustrating seeing the lack of cold air ruin these tracks that should work out in the heart of winter. 

[Rd9108]

Well even central PA is looking worse and worse. That primary just has no reason to die and transfer fast without a cold high blocking its path. Of course as DJ mentioned we have a Miller A in the beginning of February but again no sign of cold air we are relying on the storm dynamics at that point. 

[jwilson]

Don't fret, folks!  March will be rockin' and we'll have a great pattern for snow next fall ... only for it to fall apart before winter actually begins so we can do this all over again.

[north pgh]

We were due for a below average Winter. I like most of you am tired of being nickeled and dimed and would rather have a big 12 + snow. Maybe it can still happen. We can only hope!

[KPITSnow]

6 hours ago, north pgh said:

We were due for a below average Winter. I like most of you am tired of being nickeled and dimed and would rather have a big 12 + snow. Maybe it can still happen. We can only hope!

But how many 6+ inch storms have we had since 2010? It has to be less than 5 and climatologically that’s is extremely low. 
 

We might hit our average but it’s because we get an inch 20 times. 

[MikeB_01]

41 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

But how many 6+ inch storms have we had since 2010? It has to be less than 5 and climatologically that’s is extremely low. 
 

We might hit our average but it’s because we get an inch 20 times. 

So this actually makes me sad. Since 01/01/2011 here are some stats

We've had seven (SEVEN! --> Thats it!) single days that have 5.0" of snow or more.

We've had 18 snowfalls of 6+" over a 3 day stretch (the data shows 23, but i eliminated duplicate storms over a different 3 day period). It was the only way i could think of to get close to what you wanted to see. 18 storms in 10 years. 

1.8 storms a year of 6+"

 

Unfortunately, though it seems like we haven't had that many -- trust me, i'm in the same mindset. NWS Pittsburgh says that climatologically we have two 5" storms a year. Sadly, we are in the right spot.