CoraopolisWx Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Not sure about Jonesboro Arkansas, but we’re possibly becoming Charleston WV. Just looking at trends I don’t see winter improving. Basically the odds of becoming Charleston WV are much better than say I-80. Synoptically speaking. Despite Charleston being much further away than I-80. Sorry about possibly derailing any discussion on tonight’s flurries and wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Nice flurry action this morning, got a quick 1/2" around 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Snow globe snow falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 39 minutes ago, north pgh said: Snow globe snow falling now. Yeah, it's a perfect winter day out there. Nothing beats snow falling with temps in the 20s. To top that I've gotten more snow on the ground today than from yesterday's "storm". Just enough to take the kids and out and pull them around on the sled and rough house with the dog. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Euro has interesting outcome for the next storm. A cutoff low just sliding underneath us and even heading south east. Results in this I bet the ensembles will have some good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Euro has interesting outcome for the next storm. A cutoff low just sliding underneath us and even heading south east. Results in this I bet the ensembles will have some good hits. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Well.. if there's a model you want to be by itself on a good solution, it's the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 16 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Euro has interesting outcome for the next storm. A cutoff low just sliding underneath us and even heading south east. Results in this I bet the ensembles will have some good hits. I just cycled through 00z / 06z runs and there is definitely support for something similar to this showing up on GFS / GEM / Euro with some support from ENS too. Verbatim nothing looks like a clean hit for us but small improvements over previous runs. Guess I'll be tuning back in at 12z to see if the look continues to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Looks right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 EPS temps for next weekend... Cold air definitely not in place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Warm tongue showing up on the ensembles=death for us. Once it shows up it never goes away. That was the 6z ensembles so let's see what the 12z does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 12z looks awful for us. I have zero expectations for this threat. The evolution just looks too much like a miss for us. Sums up our area quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Sure seems like its right for the area, but something seems strange with the PType and surfaces temps of this run of the GFS. Plenty of vort, a closed off low H5, and no warm air in the upper or mid levels of the atmosphere. Seems odd that the surface would respond like it is depicted on this map. Maybe im wrong, just seems off. Anyway, still something to look at and hope for. At least we have a storm that is taking a pretty good path for us right now. Just need to the timing to be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 It really is too bad we don't have a better airmass leading into this weekend's system as we would probably looking at prolonged light to moderate event. Models seem to be picking up on another southern stream event for next weekend, although cold rain as depicted on 12z Gfs. It would be frustrating for 2 close misses like that with late January temps but it is what it is I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 It's a very marginal setup with high bust potential. Reminds me more of a early March storm than mid January where being off by a degree or 2 makes the difference between 1 inch or 6 inches. My thought is we need the that energy in Eastern Ohio to die out quicker and merge with the main low pressure sooner. That would help with temperatures and may help the main low wrap up a little faster. Both of those things would help us get the most of this. Who knows how close the GFS to being correct though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The GFS has been abysmal this winter. I simply don't trust it in this pattern regime. It is January, so the lack of a pronounced antecedent cold should be easier to overcome then if it were March, but we know our local climate. Plenty of caution ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Gfs ensembles looked better at 12z. Long way away though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Different outputs on the 12z Euro. Pivotal shows rain/zr at 126h. WxBell shows the white stuff at 126h. What's it gonna be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Mailman said: Damn. Day 7. Not sure what I want. Nice to see some pink on this map thats for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Good to have some.guidance show some possibility, but I don't like that the air mass is so marginal. That primary has to die somewhat fast or its gonna be more wet than white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: 12z looks awful for us. I have zero expectations for this threat. The evolution just looks too much like a miss for us. Sums up our area quite well. But even with a low that far away to the east, how would it be warm enough for rain? I mean come on. How do we win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: But even with a low that far away to the east, how would it be warm enough for rain? I mean come on. How do we win? Someone said it above - reminds me of a March storm without a cold airmass and P types are influenced by Dynamic cooling and rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Majority of the euro ensembles look great. Only 28 runs to go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 This is for Sunday into Monday correct? So we’re less than 6 days out.....better than nothing to track I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, ChalkHillSnowNut said: This is for Sunday into Monday correct? So we’re less than 6 days out.....better than nothing to track I guess. Saturday-Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just when I thought I was out..the Euro pulled me back in. I would like that dying low more south, just to be safe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 We've seen the Euro over-amplify systems in the mid-range (say between Days 4-7). We're at the back end of that window right now, still arguably in the long-range. Maybe that's not an issue here. I realize the GFS is an amped-up storm, as well, but the temperatures at the mid-levels and above are warm, hence the output. If we're getting southerly flow it isn't going to stay all frozen, at least not for us. Also working against us: bullseye at this timeframe is always bad, but even regardless of that, I don't think I've ever seen a "western PA special" like how it is depicted on the maps. That result seems VERY low probability to me. I'd be happy to be wrong if anyone can present evidence of storms that have evolved similarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Just when I thought I was out..the Euro pulled me back in. I would like that dying low more south, just to be safe. I agree, 18z GFS shows what happens if it holds on a bit to long. We get just enough warm air to rain and the secondary doesn't get going in time. Heh, just for fun loop through the OP 18z GFS, epic run for New York state, we get a nice hit too to start off Feb. Maybe we get lucky and the less than great pattern forces storms to take a decent track instead of favoring the east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, jwilson said: We've seen the Euro over-amplify systems in the mid-range (say between Days 4-7). We're at the back end of that window right now, still arguably in the long-range. Maybe that's not an issue here. I realize the GFS is an amped-up storm, as well, but the temperatures at the mid-levels and above are warm, hence the output. If we're getting southerly flow it isn't going to stay all frozen, at least not for us. Also working against us: bullseye at this timeframe is always bad, but even regardless of that, I don't think I've ever seen a "western PA special" like how it is depicted on the maps. That result seems VERY low probability to me. I'd be happy to be wrong if anyone can present evidence of storms that have evolved similarly. Only one of my favorite storms. Jan 94, the rates in that storm were apparently pretty insane. I'll take a 5 hour thump of 1-3 inch per hour over a long duration storm with maybe an inch per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I not so lovingly refer to the Euro as the "Debbie Downer" model. I'm sure she'll come to her senses in the next run or two... hahaha. Also, as someone less knowledgeable than many of you, is the GFS Hi-Res a new product/different product from the regular GFS? I just noticed it on Pivotalweather and started tinkering around with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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