jwilson Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Hi everybody, I'm new here. From Pittsburgh, all my life, and love weather. I like my seasons to be what they are supposed to be, winter to be cold and snowy, spring, mild turning warm, and sunny, summer sunny and hot, and fall cool and sunny with snow chances towards the end. I was on a different board, and grew very tired of the way they ran it and how they handled the way people felt about patterns. I read through a few pages here and feel like the Pittsburghers have a place to vent. There wasn't one over there, we were pretty much dismissed. I'm not an expert by any means, so I try to learn, but I'm just glad that I will have a place to commiserate or celebrate with a larger group of people. Welcome to our little pit of misery! Enjoy commiserating with fellow snow lovers that don't get to see much snow very often, haha. I'm being facetious, of course. Hopefully one of these days we'll see the big dog again, but it appears unlikely - though not impossible - to be this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I honestly just don't think its gonna snow. We either get a crap pacific or a crap atlantic. Even now the MJO goes into phase 7 which isn't terrible but still warmish for January. We need this in phase 8,1,2. The storm after this one looks pretty identical to the saturday slop. Maybe we get lucky in February as the wavelengths start shortening. Idk every time the long range looks good it goes to shit as we get closer to the storm. For the current time period going into February, ideal MJO phases are 8 through 3 (as you mention). 4 thru 7 are warm. If the MJO crashes and burns into the COD after a mid-amplitude 7 without even reaching 8, as it is progged to do, that's absolutely less than ideal, downright devious. Bad luck. But it fits with the pacific pattern, which has been driving most of the action this season. The AO isn't helping to counteract any of that bad juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, jwilson said: Welcome to our little pit of misery! Enjoy commiserating with fellow snow lovers that don't get to see much snow very often, haha. I'm being facetious, of course. Hopefully one of these days we'll see the big dog again, but it appears unlikely - though not impossible - to be this season. Thanks. Yeah, we definitely live in a tough spot. I won't say we don't have good seasons, as I did a calculation of the last ten and the average snow was just under 50", so about 9" above the thirty year average. The last four seasons have been overall lean, with the exception of 17-18, but the beginning of the decade more than balanced it out. This is another lean year though for sure. Very frustrating. Even the last ten Januaries have averaged 15.7", over 4' above average, with 1 average, 1 below average and the other 8 all above average, we were bound for a below average one, I guess. Hopefully, next season is ours again, and I'll look forward to watching it unfold with you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 hours ago, Ahoff said: Hi everybody, I'm new here. From Pittsburgh, all my life, and love weather. I like my seasons to be what they are supposed to be, winter to be cold and snowy, spring, mild turning warm, and sunny, summer sunny and hot, and fall cool and sunny with snow chances towards the end. I was on a different board, and grew very tired of the way they ran it and how they handled the way people felt about patterns. I read through a few pages here and feel like the Pittsburghers have a place to vent. There wasn't one over there, we were pretty much dismissed. I'm not an expert by any means, so I try to learn, but I'm just glad that I will have a place to commiserate or celebrate with a larger group of people. Welcome! Always great to get more folks from our area involved. Always nice when we are getting a storm for more observations etc. I think most of us in the Pittsburgh thread are basically knowledgeable hobbyists so don't feel like you can't share your ideas. When things look interesting for us typically some of the Mets from the Central PA thread will stop by with some solid analysis too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 NAM looks faster and colder FWIW compared to 18z. We see a lot of sleet. Maybe we get lucky for a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 00z GFS is going with a cooler air column that what has been seen in the model in the previous runs. at preceip onset (12z sat morning) the precip is down to 26°. That is a 3° drop from 18z, a 2° drop from 12 z and a 3° drop from last nights 00z. This is also translating to the mid levels. Still flirting with 32°, but its an improvement from the other runs. I say this, but we all know how these systems work. WAA always wins. We will snow for the first 5 minutes, move to some brief sleet, freezing rain, and then turn on the garden hose. All rain. I'm hoping that I can get up early enough on Saturday to see some decent rates early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 18 hours ago, north pgh said: Since we all know we are getting our usual dose of mix to rain on Saturday ...... I am still looking at Tomorrow, Thursday. NWS Pittsburgh is showing a 20% chance of slight snow showers tomorrow and tomorrow night. NWS agrees on the possibility of some decent snow shower potential: SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Snow showers will continue into the evening with lake enhancement becoming more of a factor as air/lake delta-T values increase and DGZ lowers further into the boundary layer with continued cold advection. The 06Z NMM and HRRR hint at a band setting up with a Huron/Erie connection early in the evening...so there is potential for localized snow accumulation higher than in the current forecast. Future hi-res runs will need to be monitored to see if models show continuity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 A few models did seem to trend in our direction recently. Still staying very pessimistic, but it looked to be somewhat improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ahoff said: A few models did seem to trend in our direction recently. Still staying very pessimistic, but it looked to be somewhat improved. Even with perfect conditions I still think this would max out at like 4-6. If we somehow get more than an inch I'd be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Anyone remember the last time we had a storm of 6"+ ? It has to have been a few years. I don't even remember the last time we had a WS watch or warning that wasn't for some sort of ice storm. It's amazing the temps over the next few days....close or below freezing, then the precip comes and its 42, then back below freezing. Don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, PghPirates27 said: Anyone remember the last time we had a storm of 6"+ ? It has to have been a few years. I don't even remember the last time we had a WS watch or warning that wasn't for some sort of ice storm. It's amazing the temps over the next few days....close or below freezing, then the precip comes and its 42, then back below freezing. Don't get it. 2 years ago in March I was in the training academy and I remember it clearly because we had to shovel the training grounds. We got lucky and got around 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The NAM makes this a non event basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Even with perfect conditions I still think this would max out at like 4-6. If we somehow get more than an inch I'd be surprised. 4-6 is a miracle though, so I wouldn't even complain, lol. But I agree, if we get 1-2" I'd be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I would take 4"-6" without hesitation. Anything 3"+ that sticks around for 2 days is a win at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 GFS continues to hang on to the cold air for longer. Not really how, but it seems like the high pressure that is moving in behind our system today is digging in hard. Not sure i buy it, but the GFS is showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Nice band coming through now! Fat flakes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 if only we could get something like this to last 3-4 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I was seeking and I found. Though it is a little old data --> 12z today. I did find the EPS data. I find it interesting that the 90% is up over 2" for KPIT. Just seems high to me. Maybe because the storm seems to be a little bit more zonal rather than amplified, we get a slightly slower change over than what we are used to. Maybe I am just wishing? Maybe i am crazy? Maybe I am seeing things because it is almost 1 am and I have been looking at the weather for the last 4 hours... Whatever it may be, I'm out. goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Big surprise to wake up to around 1.5"-2" of snow this morning. Hopefully, everyone got that, but there were a lot of accidents in just my neighborhood, but looks great. Hopefully this does hold the cold in a little more for tonight and tomorrow morning, to maybe slow the change over. Also, does seem they upped totals for tomorrow. Had just over 2" this morning, up from 1-2" last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: Big surprise to wake up to around 1.5"-2" of snow this morning. Hopefully, everyone got that, but there were a lot of accidents in just my neighborhood, but looks great. Hopefully this does hold the cold in a little more for tonight and tomorrow morning, to maybe slow the change over. Also, does seem they upped totals for tomorrow. Had just over 2" this morning, up from 1-2" last night. I only ended up with a coating. Driving around last night I ran into a couple decent bands in a few areas that probably had an inch or so on the ground but I'd say 1.5 -2 is probably a jackpot amount. Gotta love the randomness of LES bands. NWS has North of I-70 in the 2-3 inch range. Now that we are getting closer to the start, most of the shorter range models are keying on there being an initial slug of moderate snow to start this event followed by a bit of a lull before the main area of precip arrives. HRRR at the end of its run just for a visual of what I am talking about. How potent that first batch is combined with whether or not we can start off the second round as snow or we warm to much and its sleet/rain/mix right off the bat is the question. This storm is a good bit further West than our typical slop storms that drive up right over top or just to our West through Ohio so that probably lessens initial warm tongue to some degree. My thinking now is most of us top out around 2 inches that gets compacted with mix, and if we are lucky there will be something left on the ground for the next couple cold days that freezes into a glacier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I only ended up with a coating. Driving around last night I ran into a couple decent bands in a few areas that probably had an inch or so on the ground but I'd say 1.5 -2 is probably a jackpot amount. Gotta love the randomness of LES bands. NWS has North of I-70 in the 2-3 inch range. Now that we are getting closer to the start, most of the shorter range models are keying on there being an initial slug of moderate snow to start this event followed by a bit of a lull before the main area of precip arrives. HRRR at the end of its run just for a visual of what I am talking about. How potent that first batch is combined with whether or not we can start off the second round as snow or we warm to much and its sleet/rain/mix right off the bat is the question. This storm is a good bit further West than our typical slop storms that drive up right over top or just to our West through Ohio so that probably lessens initial warm tongue to some degree. My thinking now is most of us top out around 2 inches that gets compacted with mix, and if we are lucky there will be something left on the ground for the next couple cold days that freezes into a glacier. Its been depicted on models for days, but we've stayed mostly out of it. I'll be watching to see the set up of the dry slot. That first wave and then the dry slot and then the main storm. The position of the dry slot and the duration will go a long way in to determining whether we get the low end or high end of the forecasted totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Euro is interesting for next weekend. Certainly an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 202 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075- WVZ001>004-012-021-509-180200- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0003.200118T0600Z-200118T1800Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Beaver-Allegheny- Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio- Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz, Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Uniontown, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown 202 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet through Saturday morning. Precipitation will change to rain by Saturday afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. && $$ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 My point and click keeps dropping my totals. Basically an inch. I’d rather it just not snow at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 33 minutes ago, Mailman said: beep... beep... beep... Back that truck on up. Was never quite sure why they were going with the higher amounts that they were. I feel like they sometimes forget how this area performs during snow systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 History is on their side for 1-2 if that but we are long overdue for a surprise. They do happen every 15 years or so. 10% chance we get a surprise 4. I can feel it. ☃️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, north pgh said: History is on their side for 1-2 if that but we are long overdue for a surprise. They do happen every 15 years or so. 10% chance we get a surprise 4. I can feel it. ☃️ I agree with the 1-2. I didn't like the 3" high mark they had. Here's hoping for the 4" surprise. Maybe the column saturates rapidly and we snow for 6 consecutive hours. I'll second you and put the positive vibes out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Man... I never thought back in mid November when I scored almost 4 inches off those squalls that “event” would be the leader headed into Feb... Heres to an over performer despite the lack of much upside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 First wave is almost through, and I am very underwhelmed. I think it might be mixing with sleet, I can hear it hitting my roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now