Pittsburgh PA Area Rest of fall and Winter 2019-2020 thread

[KPITSnow]

Very disappointing start to the winter as we watch a couple decent storms miss us...feels like every other year. 

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

Very disappointing start to the winter as we watch a couple decent storms miss us...feels like every other year. 

This storm busted for a lot of areas. Only upper state New York saw the insane snowfall. This one was easy to stomach. 

[MikeB_01]

if you want some good news, here is the EPS for next week. That ridge pumping out west looks good for us. Feel like we might see some cool temps to come along


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[ChalkHillSnowNut]

I ended up with a whopping 2” by this morning....didn’t expect that even

[RitualOfTheTrout]

On 12/3/2019 at 7:29 AM, KPITSnow said:

Very disappointing start to the winter as we watch a couple decent storms miss us...feels like every other year. 

It's all relative, but overall I think this winter is doing alright. Got nearly 4 inches of snow in November, and now that December is underway at least for the time being we aren't staring down the barrel of endless 50s and 60s with people golfing and riding bikes in shorts til New Years. There is even some hope that by early next week there might be another storm to track.

These most recent storms never really had my interest, so I didn't invest much time, it is a tough pill to swallow when a storm you track for 5-6 days misses by a few hundred miles.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

19 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

if you want some good news, here is the EPS for next week. That ridge pumping out west looks good for us. Feel like we might see some cool temps to come along


.

That's not a bad look, I'd think that would keep us on the cold side of any storms, obviously subject to change but it will  be interesting to see how things develop over the coming weeks.

[jwilson]

It is still early - too early, really - to talk about a potential storm next weekend, but my initial concern would be too westward of a track, leading to warm tongue concerns.  A strong CAD signature isn't relevant west of the mountains.  If it was the height of winter with deep cold maybe I'd feel otherwise.  December is a bit more marginal.

[north pgh]

On 12/4/2019 at 10:16 AM, jwilson said:

It is still early - too early, really - to talk about a potential storm next weekend, but my initial concern would be too westward of a track, leading to warm tongue concerns.  A strong CAD signature isn't relevant west of the mountains.  If it was the height of winter with deep cold maybe I'd feel otherwise.  December is a bit more marginal.

At least it's something to watch.

 

[MikeB_01]

This is a few runs old, but its interesting to see that the EPS has the snowfall there. Both the ens and the op have the storm, just need to watch and see how the ingredients start to come together.

[Rd9108]

If we could somehow get this wave to ride further NW. Maybe good for our southern posters though. 

 

[jwilson]

10 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

If we could somehow get this wave to ride further NW. Maybe good for our southern posters though. 

 

Seems like one of those where the typical north trend won't happen because it would actually benefit us.

If it doesn't work out, after some more 50 degree rain on Saturday, the system next Monday could lend itself to a quick thump.  Everything in this current pattern is fast moving.  Doesn't allow for much major snow but we could score a respectable thump at some point.  It certainly doesn't seem like a shut-out pattern (at least not for everyone, never can be too sure).

[RitualOfTheTrout]

16 hours ago, jwilson said:

Seems like one of those where the typical north trend won't happen because it would actually benefit us.

If it doesn't work out, after some more 50 degree rain on Saturday, the system next Monday could lend itself to a quick thump.  Everything in this current pattern is fast moving.  Doesn't allow for much major snow but we could score a respectable thump at some point.  It certainly doesn't seem like a shut-out pattern (at least not for everyone, never can be too sure).

I agree, you can pretty much forget tracking any threats past day 4 or 5 in this type of pattern. I am a bit less optimistic about the upcoming 7-10 day period than I was 5 days ago but with fast flow maybe something sneaks up on us. Overall nothing looks to lock in for the next 10-14 days, so expect cold then warm with maybe our best shot at snow a quick thump prior to the ever loathed slop.

[Mailman]

Euro giving us something to track a week out.

[MikeB_01]

I'm dreaming of a white christmas... 

[jwilson]

Hey I heard you guys like snow holes.

[MikeB_01]

Whether we get anything or not, the CPC and the models have been indicating a warm up somewhere around Christmas. Starting to see a flip in that. Here is the Euro. Check out the increased high latitude blocking


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[jwilson]

33 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Whether we get anything or not, the CPC and the models have been indicating a warm up somewhere around Christmas. Starting to see a flip in that. Here is the Euro. Check out the increased high latitude blocking
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I know there have been discussions of a "warm" signal, but honestly I don't see anything to indicate we're heading into a prolonged or significant torch season.  It is more like moderate temperatures, normal to just slightly above, for a few days at most.  I believe all the models are on board with a west based -NAO at this point, and even though that exists in the volatile mid-to-long range, consensus makes me a bit more confident.

Ironically, we don't really want a weakened (and potentially white) storm this weekend.  We'd be better off getting an over-amped lakes cutter to set the table for next week where the potential exists for something more significant.  The GFS has this evolution while the Euro does not.  Of course the Euro doesn't give us a whole lot of anything, anyway.

Because the pattern is active and in transition, I don't feel particularly strong about any individual storm signals or solutions beyond 3 days.  We might have to wait for a surprise.  While that's not as satisfying as tracking something longer term, we're in a better position than if things were cold and dry.  We've favored cold mostly and have energy consistently arriving.

[Mailman]

I see we got NAM'd for tomorrow.

[Burghblizz]

3 hours ago, Mailman said:

I see we got NAM'd for tomorrow.

NAM probably a little crazy - but The later GFS runs seem to like the idea of a couple inches being possible 

[MikeB_01]

keep in mind this is the 00z hires nam that is indicating a quick transition to some moderate snow that will amount in a few inches.

 

I cannot for the life of me, figure out how this sounding profile yields snow. Any ideas? Am I looking at this wrong? It looks to me like it is still above freezing at 10,000 ft and no colder closer to the ground. No way this is snow - right? 

[jwilson]

16 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

keep in mind this is the 00z hires nam that is indicating a quick transition to some moderate snow that will amount in a few inches.

 

I cannot for the life of me, figure out how this sounding profile yields snow. Any ideas? Am I looking at this wrong? It looks to me like it is still above freezing at 10,000 ft and no colder closer to the ground. No way this is snow - right? 

As I would understand it, perhaps the model cannot pick up on an extremely shallow layer of warm air at the surface, which allows precip to reach the ground as snow despite surface temps remaining above freezing?  Obviously that sounding depicts a thicker layer of warm air, indicating rain or even freezing rain.  I don't know if this "error" can be depicted visually and that's why the sounding looks off or if it's something else entirely.

The other problem I believe models have is understanding actual accumulating snow versus snow that falls but does not accumulate.  If snow is supported, models expect that snow to accumulate and display the total amounts as such.  However, they cannot differentiate when snow does not actually accumulate due to warm air near the surface or warm antecedent air that prevents falling snow from piling up.

I'm not an expert, of course, and this is only my speculation.

I can confirm it is snowing right now out there but is still too warm at the surface to support accumulating snow.

[MikeB_01]

yuck... nasty Tuesday morning commute

[north pgh]

It looks like tonight's little wave is further south which doesn't give us much...... but the 2nd wave tomorrow night into Tuesday gets brought further south and keeps us colder which gives us borderline freezing and better chance for frozen.

It also was looking at warmer for Christmas but now looking like some cold snow showery weather coming down at that time. No big storm but hoping we can have a couple inches on the ground for a white Christmas. We are due for one.

Plenty of time for changes either way.

[jwilson]

The snow looks close, but we have some really dry air to overcome.  I have to wonder if this is an error of some kind?  The sounding shows a DPT at 826 hPa of -51.3F.  That's crazy.  Mid-levels are bone dry elsewhere, too, though.

[north pgh]

WTOD in full effect tomorrow ☠️

[Rd9108]

Looks like a heavy band is gonna set up right to our north for the second bout of precip. Meanwhile the metro will probably start as heavy snow and then transition very quickly and get screwed by the WTOD as usual. Oh well less shoveling atleast. 

[MikeB_01]

My prediction for tonight ---> 

[MikeB_01]

In case you want to do a little early analysis on how the storm is looking right now and what it will do, the 15z RAP is initializing really well. The thermal gradients are nearly perfect. The only thing that I am seeing different is the convergence area off the east coast. The current analysis is more norther/zonal and the model initialized has a more southern look to it. Eventually, the model brings that rain/snow/mix line right through AGC. Granted, these are fluid systems, but to me it looks like the system may track even a touch further north due to the area of convergence. Will be interesting to see how that changes over the course of the day.

 

 

[jwilson]

2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

My prediction for tonight ---> 

Yeah I agree.  I never expected a whole lot from this so I'm hardly disappointed, but based on experience, if there is a "mixed" solution per the models, I almost always err on the side of warmth.  Models struggle to handle the low-level warm surge around this area (microclimate).  If there isn't a strong block in place, it is pretty much guaranteed we see a warmer solution.  I expect mostly rain (if not all rain).

[jwilson]

Since I did this for November I figured I should do it for December, as well.

• 30 year snowfall average in December - 7.8"  (Down half an inch from the prior 30-year mean)
• 21.3" highest amount over this period (2003)
• T least (1994)

We're actually in a bit of a downturn right now, having had below-average snow for four of the last five years (<2" for three of those). 

• Average snowfall in December over last five years - 4.4"  (Saved only by 2017-18's 13.3")

If the long-range modeling is to be believed, we're about to punt the rest of December, as well, which would indicate another well below average month.  I've measured only 1.5" locally so far.  This feels like a continuation of "brown" Decembers, a short-term trend.  I don't know how long this will last in the grand scheme of things.  This year hasn't been as warm as past Decembers, either, but still just as snowless.  Perhaps something to keep in mind for the future.

I should add this low period isn't completely unique in Pittsburgh's history.  You do have to go back quite a while to find any comparable five-year averages.  Other than between '98-'02 (a 4.5" average over four years), you have to jump to the 70s to find a similar set of circumstances.  Definitely uncommon.